Identifying trend

Commercials know of and react to events much earlier than it gets reported on ANY news outlet like Reuters or Bloomberg :banghead::rolleyes:

Commercials ALWAYS have an information advantage.

farmerjohn1324 said:
Either way, they're still reacting to it right? Unless you're a conspiracy theorist?
More...
 
bone said:
Commercials know of and react to events much earlier than it gets reported on ANY news outlet like Reuters or Bloomberg :banghead::rolleyes:

Commercials ALWAYS have an information advantage.
More...

Even if they get information faster, they are still reacting.

Unless you're claiming that Bank of America is controlling the coronavirus? Or JP Morgan knows the intentions of Iran?

Btw, have you ever watched a tick chart around a major data release? Nothing happens before the time of the release. It takes at least 1 second.
 
You posted one hour charts of the Japanese Yen in your OP. By your logic - a retail currency speculator with a news feed has the same information advantage as The Bank of Japan or the Sumitomo and Daichi Bank Trading Desks.

You’re absurdly naive

farmerjohn1324 said:
Either way, they're still reacting to it right? Unless you're a conspiracy theorist?
More...
 
bone said:
You posted one hour charts of the Japanese Yen in your OP. By your logic - a retail currency speculator with a news feed has the same information advantage as The Bank of Japan or the Sumitomo and Daichi Bank Trading Desks.

You’re absurdly naive
More...

I'm not even watching news when posting those charts. I know that a recent trend could change at any time if a larger fundamental force acts on it. I'm just trying to get a quantitative grasp on what's been going on recently.

It would be impossible to have the same information as they do. And if you leave it at that, you might as well quit and call it impossible.

Perhaps watching what the recent trend is could give a chance of getting the odds to above a 50% coin toss. If you combine 60% odds with lots of money and leverage, you could make a healthy profit in theory.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
Here's my point of view...

The price of anything is determined by supply and demand.

What drives demand? What causes people (such as commercial institutions) to want to put money in something? Primarily, it's the usefulness of the item in question.

For example, if lots of new construction is going on, it will increase the cost of building materials due to demand from builders. But it's the usefulness of the building materials that happens first, and the money from the builders flows secondarily from that.

That's why in markets, lots of money will flow from news reports, data, etc. because it affects the sentiment of the commercial institutions. They are often following the news/data.
More...


As @bone said, your understanding is flawed. At the very least, too simplistic and narrow.

As a simple example, take an index or even a sector ETF. They are mandated to own either a specific, or a limited, percentage of a single component, regardless of price. This has nothing to do with supply/demand or "usefulness" of the component beyond merely being a component.

Or try explaining this week's near 10% price drop in sugar futures on simple supply/demand? It's coming off of 3yr highs btw.

And not to be overlooked... You can still get a pet rock for $19.95!!
https://www.petrock.com/
 
Last edited:
tiddlywinks said:
As @bone said, your understanding is flawed. At the very least, too simplistic and narrow.

As a simple example, take an index or even a sector ETF. They are mandated to own either a specific, or a limited, percentage of a single component, regardless of price. This has nothing to do with supply/demand or "usefulness".

Or try explaining this week's near 10% price drop in sugar futures on simple supply/demand? It's coming off of 3yr highs btw.

And not to be overlooked... You can still get a pet rock for $19.95!!
https://www.petrock.com/
More...

All I'm saying is that the news precedes the flow of money.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top