Identifying a reversal (trend change)

[maxinger]

it is a good idea....once you find a pattern and document it, go back to your historical charts and search for that same pattern and SEE HOW MANY TIMES THAT PATTERN APPEARED BUT FAILED TO REVERSE.
it has been my experience that every reversal 'pattern' fails 90% of the time it appears and this is the enigma of trading...but that is my experience......

you are right to some extent.

most people hesitated far too much (at times, I hestitated too). they waited for panets to be aligned.
by the time they enter, it is too late.

early entry very important so that we can shift stop loss to protective stop

There is no such thing as guaranteed success, accurate reversal pattern.
Look at today markets. there are lots of reversal signals.

 

[padutrader]

since trends continue for a long time why not wait until it is clear that the trend has changed- i have traded 4-5 reversal signals and have all of them fail..so wait for failure then enter

 

[tomorton]

since trends continue for a long time why not wait until it is clear that the trend has changed- i have traded 4-5 reversal signals and have all of them fail..so wait for failure then enter

padu mate, this is the wisest thing you have ever said.

 

[padutrader]

padu mate, this is the wisest thing you have ever said.

thank you for your patience since you have actually read everything i have written !!!!!

 

[El OchoCinco]

i define a trend in place when there is two bars of same color and size which indicate one side is in control at least for now

since trends continue for a long time why not wait until it is clear that the trend has changed- i have traded 4-5 reversal signals and have all of them fail..so wait for failure then enter

So a trend is either 2 bars on an intraday chart or they continue for a long time.... got it.

 

[padutrader]

So a trend is either 2 bars on an intraday chart or they continue for a long time.... got it.

maybe you have...but they all start with two bars of similar shape size ......

that is my perception....i am not the greatest trader ever...either you take something from that or leave it ...

it is very easy to make fun of any strategy because every strategy makes money...some of the time....and loses many times ...that is the nature of the market....but your nature is very apparent by your comment : yep i got it too

 

[El OchoCinco]

My point is that you are contradicting yourself in your same sentence...

 

[tommcginnis]

it is a good idea....once you find a pattern and document it, go back to your historical charts and search for that same pattern and SEE HOW MANY TIMES THAT PATTERN APPEARED BUT FAILED TO REVERSE.
it has been my experience that every reversal 'pattern' fails 90% of the time it appears and this is the enigma of trading...but that is my experience......

So close!!
You state a required bit of sense in that any pattern you perceive from history should survive post hoc testing -- that's great.

But then you destroy it, with "it has been my experience that every reversal 'pattern' fails 90% of the time it appears...."
What you're saying is that your 'pattern' only holds 10% reliable. That's not much of an indicator. You could improve your trading results by 400%, by flipping a coin, and going long on heads, and short on tails.

Time to find a new method.
But make sure that any method you choose has results of better than 50|50 -- elsewise, stick with the coin-flipping.

 

[qxr1011]

My only question is, "Why go for such a high risk strategy as trading reversals when you're still a not-yet-profitable trader?".

imho profitable is baloney (half of the people on the market are profitable one time or another),

he will never be a professional trader if he can not spot the trend's beginning and the end.

 

[qxr1011]

How do you spot it?

that you have to find on your own