Identifying a reversal (trend change)

[Alfing]

How do you spot it? One way is a swing in the opposite direction and a test preferable touching the previous trendline. What are other known ways?

 

[Simples]

They are countless. You anticipate trend change and systemize what you can learn about trend change.
Predicting continuation is sort of the opposite.
The biggest pitfall is falling in love with just one timeseries or starting magical thinking.

 

[Alfing]

They are countless. You anticipate trend change and systemize what you can learn about trend change.
Predicting continuation is sort of the opposite.
The biggest pitfall is falling in love with just one timeseries or starting magical thinking.

There is that. Trying to compose a library of most common ones without falling in love with any or all of them.

 

[tomorton]

My only question is, "Why go for such a high risk strategy as trading reversals when you're still a not-yet-profitable trader?".

 

[ElectricSavant]

is it a trend or a pullback...framing the price has many possibilities.

 

[Scataphagos]

is it a trend or a pullback...framing the price has many possibilities.

Yes. Trends can be very "short to major". Other than trying to "nail" a turn at a big support or resistance, it's always a guess to a large degree.

Of course you can see a "change" on the chart. What you don't know is whether is a "small counter" or something larger.... and what you should do about it.

 

[Sprout]

How do you spot it? One way is a swing in the opposite direction and a test preferable touching the previous trendline. What are other known ways?

Depends on how you define a trend, the timescale of observation and your trading timeframe.

You won’t see this until you do drills but generally a retrace becomes a reversal when after volume decreases in the Dominant direction it will increase in the non-Dominant direction until the non- Dom becomes the Dom as it XO the RTL.

It’s as simple to see as ripples formed by skipping stones across a clear surface of water and more difficult when the surface is full of waves.

The market is full of waves caused by participants operating on different timescales with different needs in mind entering and exiting positions each causing a small or large ripple or something in between.

If one doesn’t take a horizontal view and shift to an event orientation then what you have is the vertical view of support and resistance.

Each have a different orientation and thus different and at times contradictory signals and interpretations.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Sprout,

You have the ability to rephrase one-liner's into eloquent speech.

Es

Depends on how you define a trend, the timescale of observation and your trading timeframe.

You won’t see this until you do drills but generally a retrace becomes a reversal when after volume decreases in the Dominant direction it will increase in the non-Dominant direction until the non- Dom becomes the Dom as it XO the RTL.

It’s as simple to see as ripples formed by skipping stones across a clear surface of water and more difficult when the surface is full of waves.

The market is full of waves caused by participants operating on different timescales with different needs in mind entering and exiting positions each causing a small or large ripple or something in between.

If one doesn’t take a horizontal view and shift to an event orientation then what you have is the vertical view of support and resistance.

Each have a different orientation and thus different and at times contradictory signals and interpretations.

 

[Palindrome]

I would suggest try to master Trend Continuation before trend reversal. Focus your time on trend continuation first, master, then explore trend reversals

reversals are hard, and after about 8 years I myself am just starting to put something in production for trend reversal.

Lastly trend reversal... if you so dare to focus on it...focus on the longer term charts first... daily/4hr etc.

for major reversals.... 3day chart is pretty amazing. I've caught some major moves

 

[ElectricSavant]

good advice

I would suggest try to master Trend Continuation before trend reversal. Focus your time on trend continuation first, master, then explore trend reversals

reversals are hard, and after about 8 years I myself am just starting to put something in production for trend reversal.

Lastly trend reversal... if you so dare to focus on it...focus on the longer term charts first... daily/4hr etc.

for major reversals.... 3day chart is pretty amazing. I've caught some major moves