iceman's options trading journal

Quote from iceman1:

GOOG

I say short GOOG - we are within 5-10 points of a st top.

If I had more available funds right now would get into ITM puts and/or sell DEEP ITM c with atm call. Just don't feel like messing with GOOG having not traded it much recently.

(I know- at this level its a buying opportunity)
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Duh?

what did I say

gap is resistance so far. Will it fill? Well it's hard to bet against it filling--

--- but right now maybe we still see 350-355 lows on the GOOG! Don't rule it out. There is a gap near 340 on GOOG. There is no doubt in my mind that it fills. The Q is when. I know it sounds like plasphemy. :eek:

IF it fills more of this weeks's gap nearer to 420 I will then buy puts for sure. Right now it merely overlapped 1/20/06 pricess. Too uncertain to hold shorts overnight.

But what did Humphrey Neill say about the ART of contrary thinking?
 
Quote from iceman1:

APOL

the sun is rising! maybe ? :confused:
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APOL


bollingers starting to contract - but which way will the baby come out --- this time-- head first in the direction of the trend (not good for our backspread) or assbackwards towards the 60s - gap? :eek:
 
"People want to buy cheap and sell dear; this by itself makes them countertrend. But the notion of cheapness or dearness must be anchored to something. People tend to view prices thery're used to as normal and prices removed from these levels as aberrant. This perspective leads people to trade counter to an emerging trend on the assumption that prices will eventually return to "normal". Therein lies the path to disaster"

Hmmmmm... can anyone say

da GOOG

(mommie I just got a deal on GOOG at 470 on margin since some guy said it will go to 540 FIRST- but it didn't)

sticking with my 350-355 target from the Goooogle thread - it got fairly close on Friday given it was once at 470...! It didn't open there post-earnings like I thought it would but now that the guys got some stock distributed higher- why not shake out some more weak hands and accumulate lower.
 
Quote from iceman1:




01-30-06 07:55 PM


APOL


backspread
60c/55c (PnL = u/r loss)

based upon 1. 1/23/06 weekly bullish engulfing 2. OBV as contrary indicator 3. CCI + divergence 4. 1/12/06 volume

negative: 1. <50/200 ema 2. 1/27/06 action 3. resignation of Nelson 4. positioned against trend
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This might be a fiasco with rising rates and a crap chart but I am staying with APOL calls - rolling Feb calls into March next week - will keep a few short Feb 55c for protection with intent to exit at a loss IF APOL blasts higher. With the recent sell-off in broader markets, and certain issues - money may be looking to rotate into some beaten down names with 1/2-way reasonable fundamentals. Therefor I am staying with APOL, and may add small # of ITM call; next few days are telltale.

Still looking for >60 st on APOL and then re-evaluate r/r from there. Obviously <55 still doable like last month. Certainly swimming upsteam on this one! Of course NTES looked like warm p-ke when we first go into it -- having sold off 40 points and lookie what happened. NTES did have a better bottom in and suprise news from China to act as a catalyst for the early January blast off.

Look at it this way- IF you were a so-called LT investor and bought APOL in July 2004 you'd be underwater $40; IF you bought in June 2005 youd be 25 in the red. So like they say one person's ceiling is another person's floor - and vice versa. Let's hope we're getting in on the first floor - albeit a little early! Assuming the proverbial ANALysts know anything at all and are somewhat correct in earnings of 3.36 next year - as a position trader entering at these levels I am not overpaying.

One big concern is it's 85 year old interim Chairman. Now that is uncertainty. :eek: But then again - we gotta expect them to announce a new CEO sometime soon which IMHO would fuel a pop. Also recent broader market weakness, and higher borrowing rates may stifle this one.

but money flow aiming higher, and MFI heading to >50. Next couple days will be telltale.

My trading target by March 15 is >67
 
Quote from iceman1:

staying with (bullish) positions in

DNA

+ march 85c
- feb90c
+ march 100c

PnL = +

based upon

1. falling wedge-like pattern (daily close) forming since 1/11/06 albeit sloping in direction of recent downtrend. 2. potential bullish divergence on macd 3. gap/volume on 1/11/06 4. ANALysts targets 5. I like this one to trade >100 this Q.

negative: <50 d/ema

____________________________________________________


can't think of one reason this stock should not re-test 100

stop at <83 and will re-evaluate
 
Journal thoughts for the week:


"Mike, I learned it from you. You always told me this was the rule. Rule number one: throw away your cards the moment you know they can't win! Fold the hand!!"

... Rounders

I count him braver who overcomes his desires... than him who conquers his enemies; for the harder victory is the victory over self

....Aristotle
 
Quote from bjdhawk:

ice

hopefully you stuck to your guns on AAPL...
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no I made one little mistake-- I began to think too much as it neared 70 - so I sold Feb 7250 puts way too soon even though I rolled into march 70p - and didn't sell enough Feb 75/7250 calls. All due to my thinking 70 HAD TO HOLD. In the hedge fund era you can't view obvious support the same way.

You still got a position in Continental ?
 
You still got a position in Continental ? [/B][/QUOTE]


have small position in CAL....long 5 mar 1750p with an u/r loss. expecting this to fill the 1/31 opening gap and will re-evaluate position.

also opened a small front month straddle on XLNX at 2750.
 
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