iceman's options trading journal

Quote from iceman1:

well like the gurus on ET say - vola is an important consideration- and in buying my CME 410 puts I obviously overpaid.

Nailed the top on CME (st top - that is) - it sells off 14 points and I am earning peanuts on my long 410 puts! IF I didnt see it I would not believe it! Unfkingreal!
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no one wants to bid for CME puts - that has to be a decent contrary sign of a st top - but we will see. Once you have lived through a bubble --- nothing can surprise you! After all this is an EXCHANGE so I'm sure it's worth many many many times more than 425 DOLLARS. No doubt sentiment is bullish on CME.

But let's see if we can get it back for a test of the 400 level! :confused:
 
Quote from iceman1:

well like the gurus on ET say - vola is an important consideration- and in buying my CME 410 puts I obviously overpaid.

Nailed the top on CME (st top - that is) - it sells off 14 points and I am earning peanuts on my long 410 puts! IF I didnt see it I would not believe it! Unfkingreal!
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what sense is extreme patience and discipline if you pay too much for directional options? Duh. I waited and held back until CME hit 424 before buying puts- and still not making dinner money today on a FOURTEEN point sell-offf.

Hell if I had haircut margin and sold short the same # of shares I would now be up 7000 overnight and that's on a mere 500 --- and with only 5000 haircut shares we would be up 70K! Then the patience in entering would be compensated. No worries about volatility ? AND I could collar/fence now -- on declining vola - and hold the 5000 shares overnight seeking more downside.

Of course if you have umlimited funds from the tree in the backyard-- and don't mind risking it all-- in a retail account --- you might actually be able to make some real money trading options and equities--- in the USA. Otherwise you have to be perfect and hit the sweet spot almost every time.

Then try to spread the positions and leg out/lift the long side on an index. Hell the margin goes through the roof. Doesn't matter whether you have 20 years experience or 20 days - retail accounts treat most customers the same.

But let's give some 20 year old kid 4/1 day margin. YEP. That's sensible!



Ice
:cool:
 
Quote from iceman1:

1-31-06

:D :D

what we see AH today is what we will see in QM and OIH and oil stocks --- SOON

so far I have been early in predicting that oil is going to get hammered albeit I have made ok profits trading OIH from the short side. My one error was when I posted on the Journal that I was considering going long 155 OIH calls on the day we had that large PB to 146-148 territory. That was a faux pas to not enter those calls.

But right now I am stalking a short entry into QM, and OIH that I can hold for a period of time all the way down. It may be next month or maybe not until May- but we will catch it just like in 2000 when everyone was saying how the market would never go lower. OIL reminds me of that sentiment.

We are reaching a once-in-a-lifetime shorting opportunity in oil. Prices have been manipualted higher IMHO. Remember when "they" want out of oil stocks - OIH won't just go down 10-15 points -- try more like 50-100 points.

JMHO


iceman1
:cool:

p.s. geeezz-- almost sounds like Prechter! :eek:
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take a look at OIL guys - let's see if this (reversal) sell off is anything meaningful. I have to pull up a QM chart AH.

actually have short calls on VLO - and closed all my short VLO puts except 60 strike yesterday (since I am still long some OIH front month puts in a 2/1 ratio spread (more short) - why not hold short VLO 60 puts)

-- it may be my lucky day!
 
Quote from iceman1:




2/1/06

take a look at OIL guys - let's see if this (reversal) sell off is anything meaningful. I have to pull up a QM chart AH.

actually have short calls on VLO - and closed all my short VLO puts except 60 strike yesterday (since I am still long some OIH front month puts in a 2/1 ratio spread (more short) - why not hold short VLO 60 puts)

-- it may be my lucky day!
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let's c if we can form a HS top on OIH. We sort of kinda have a neck and a potential potato head -- and LS- now we need to trade down and up to form a right shoulder so we create a slanting NL. Let's make sure it is moderately symmetrical too bros.

Not too F-ing complicated! :D :eek:
 
Quote from iceman1:

OIL

anyone notice the sell off ?

:D
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wait a minute - OIL doesn't go down! That's the 21st C rule just as sure as there is no crying in baseball.

In fact- I LIKE the idea of ugly fat old yuppies at the nations oil companies --- along with the unbathed camel jockies in parts of this world (who can't spell their own names and went to school for Bombing101)

---- making obscene and undeserved amounts of money off the honorable, decent and hard working citizens of the planet! I mean after all OIL doesn't belong to everyone just becasue it happens to exist on earth. Nope!

It belongs to whomever was lucky enough to have their camel sh-t on top of the oil wells!

Way to go Bushie!


Ice
(former protester)


p.s. Power to the People ! :D :D
 
FIRE SALE on CME!


it's down to $412 -- step up to the plate - it's the bargain of the century!

up almost 2.70 on puts - WOW - I can almost afford a ticket to a White Sox game.
 
IMCL

on radar

already have options positions - but gonna take a loook at adding (more) longs to the mix! My bias is IMCL trades back down to <35.

But I see a lot of things that make me think maybe "something" is up! This one can be unpredictable! But there is always that buyout rumor in the background.

maybe + strangle/straddle it
 
Quote from iceman1:



2-01-06

IMCL

on radar

already have options positions - but gonna take a loook at adding (more) longs to the mix! My bias is IMCL trades back down to <35.

But I see a lot of things that make me think maybe "something" is up! This one can be unpredictable! But there is always that buyout rumor in the background.

maybe + strangle/straddle it
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damn my intuition and tape reading is reaching new levels of clarity and accuracy if it's a stock I follow!

Wow---- day after I got the "feeling" from wacthing the tape --- sure enough -- news comes out from BMY. Funny tihng is - I stayed short IMCL surrounded with some interesting options positions.

Looking good Billy Ray - Feeling good Louis!


Briefing.Com
02-Feb-06
09:19 IMCL Imclone: BMY will not make a bid for the rest of IMCL - Citigroup (37.30 ) -Update-
Citigroup notes that BMY said last night in a filing that it does not currently have any plans to alter its relationship with IMCL and intends to maintain its commercialization efforts of Erbitux even if there is a change of control at IMCL until the agreement terminates in 2018.



ICe
:cool:
 
Quote from iceman1:

damn my intuition and tape reading is reaching new levels of clarity and accuracy if it's a stock I follow!

Wow---- day after I got the "feeling" from wacthing the tape --- sure enough -- news comes out from BMY. Funny tihng is - I stayed short IMCL surrounded with some interesting options positions.

Looking good Billy Ray - Feeling good Louis!


Briefing.Com
02-Feb-06
09:19 IMCL Imclone: BMY will not make a bid for the rest of IMCL - Citigroup (37.30 ) -Update-
Citigroup notes that BMY said last night in a filing that it does not currently have any plans to alter its relationship with IMCL and intends to maintain its commercialization efforts of Erbitux even if there is a change of control at IMCL until the agreement terminates in 2018.



ICe
:cool:
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unreal

it fills the gap within 10 minutes. :confused:

I am sitting for two weeks waiting for DNA and APOL to move $1-- bad news comes out on IMCL - it sells off and then for some inexplicable reason it trades back higher in the first 15 minutes.

geessuss --- I am about ready to become a day trader!
 
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