I trade 1 ES

Quote from random trader:


I will trade only from one side at a given time. At this time I believe the next few weeks/months will be down so I will trade from the short side exclusively. This will change when I believe the intermediate trend has changed. To determine the trend, I look at only weekly charts of $SPX and $BPSPX, using two indicators MACD and CCI.
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Just wondering how you determined the 'intermediate trend' was down, when the Dow Industrials are within a few points of closing at a new high? Admittedly the SPX is about 25 points under the highs, but this hardly makes an intermediate downtrend.

OldTrader
 
Hello,

Great thread so far. It's interesting to see how well, or not so well, random trading works. Any suggestions for parameters to use this type of trading in ZN? Converting the suggested target/stop on ES to YM gives about a 48 point target and a 190 point stop. I wonder how that would test out on tradestation?:)
 
Quote from OldTrader:



Just wondering how you determined the 'intermediate trend' was down, when the Dow Industrials are within a few points of closing at a new high? Admittedly the SPX is about 25 points under the highs, but this hardly makes an intermediate downtrend.

OldTrader
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First of all, I am not a good trader, yet. My account equity resembles a roller coaster more than anything else. I fought the uptrend since March and lost a large percentage. The main edge I have is that I am trading with money I can afford to lose, hence this "no fear no greed" experiment.

With the above in mind, I will address your question:
1. I look at SPX for market direction. DOW and NAZ mean as much to me as any RANDOMly chosen stock.
2. New highs are often great set-ups for divergence so I don't place too much weight in them.
3. I only look at weekly $SPX and $BPSPX charts with MACD and CCI to determine trend. I feel indeed the trend is changing now or will change to down soon. Yes, I know, I should not anticipate the turn, but wait for the confirmation of the turn. However, I don't have a system to confirm that, so my sense is as good as it gets.

I am wrong often and I could be wrong again this time. But I do believe I got a better chance than an average daytrader on this board. I have made many mistakes in the last 3 years, but my accounts haven't blown up. And I am still scheduled to retire at 65.
 
10 minutes before NY open, ES high was 995. If I were trading scared money, I would have cut loss already. Instead, I have the opportunity to watch how high it can go before it hopefully reverses. Please, don't start with a stop loss.
 
Quote from random trader:

10 minutes before NY open, ES high was 995. If I were trading scared money, I would have cut loss already. Instead, I have the opportunity to watch how high it can go before it hopefully reverses. Please, don't start with a stop loss.
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I wont mention any stop losses. But the word hope scare the hell out of me. Good luck Random.
 
I think you are right about the market topping, but I think you are undercapitalized to be trading off a weekly chart(like I am one to talk about undercapitalization, lol). I think maybe more of a swing trading strategy would serve you better, still high profits without the daytrading mess, but not quite so high of risk. I know you aren't trading with scared money, but it is still nice to try and preserve it. Just a suggestion...
 
Quote from baggerlord:

I think you are right about the market topping, but I think you are undercapitalized to be trading off a weekly chart(like I am one to talk about undercapitalization, lol). I think maybe more of a swing trading strategy would serve you better, still high profits without the daytrading mess, but not quite so high of risk. I know you aren't trading with scared money, but it is still nice to try and preserve it. Just a suggestion...
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I know. See my post yesterday. I may have to do this experiment in my other account, where I can afford an adverse move of 100 points. But meantime I am hoping I don't have to do this. Hoping because I don't want this experiment to mess with my positions in the other account, not because I cannot afford to lose 20 or 50 points.
 
Quote from random trader:



I know. See my post yesterday. I may have to do this experiment in my other account, where I can afford an adverse move of 100 points. But meantime I am hoping I don't have to do this. Hoping because I don't want this experiment to mess with my positions in the other account, not because I cannot afford to lose 20 or 50 points.
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Don't confuse "scared" money with dumb money.

Scared money wants to exit at every adverse tick.

Dumb money holds onto losing positions in the hopes that they will come back.
 
OK RT, sounds like you know what you are doing. I don't know your experience, but if you haven't you might want to read The Master Swing Trader by Fairly. I think it would really help out your style.
 
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