I trade 1 ES

[random trader]

Quote from Htrader:



Don't confuse "scared" money with dumb money.

Scared money wants to exit at every adverse tick.

Dumb money holds onto losing positions in the hopes that they will come back.

I don't think what you call "dumb" money is really dumb. Truth is "dumb" money makes more money than you would know or like. Where do you think the larget amount of "dumb" money resides? In wall street firms! And they are getting richer, not poorer, by the day.

And by the way, statistically, losing positions do come back much more often than not. It's how one uses this statistics that deternmines if he's successful in the long run.

 

[random trader]

Quote from baggerlord:

OK RT, sounds like you know what you are doing. I don't know your experience, but if you haven't you might want to read The Master Swing Trader by Fairly. I think it would really help out your style.

Thanks. I have read more books than I would care, including this one. But if one can trade successfully by reading books, I would rather become a brain surgeon by doing the same.

 

[funky]

is there a reason why you want to do this experiment with REAL money? i mean, besides the question about 'scared money'? we already know the answer to that

imho, if i was gonna 'experiment', i certainly wouldn't do it with my hard earned money.....maybe somebody elses....but.....

 

[random trader]

Quote from funky:

is there a reason why you want to do this experiment with REAL money? i mean, besides the question about 'scared money'? we already know the answer to that

imho, if i was gonna 'experiment', i certainly wouldn't do it with my hard earned money.....maybe somebody elses....but.....

How can I do this experiment without using real money? What is going to motivate me to watch the market and jump in and out on a daily basis?

I read some journals on this board. The performance difference between paper trades and real trades of some people are more than mind boggling.

 

[baggerlord]

Quote from random trader:



Thanks. I have read more books than I would care, including this one. But if one can trade successfully by reading books, I would rather become a brain surgeon by doing the same.

Are you using the method of selecting trades suggested in his book? IE Find your bias off the weekly chart and then a setup on the daily? Might keep you out of a lot of trouble...

 

[random trader]

Quote from baggerlord:



Are you using the method of selecting trades suggested in his book? IE Find your bias off the weekly chart and then a setup on the daily? Might keep you out of a lot of trouble...

No, because I read too many books and his book didn't stand out from the crowd. But I do use the concept of finding a bias off the weekly chart and then a setup on the daily.

 

[funky]

Quote from random trader:



How can I do this experiment without using real money? What is going to motivate me to watch the market and jump in and out on a daily basis?

You do it with a simulator. So your motivation is money, not good trading?

I read some journals on this board. The performance difference between paper trades and real trades of some people are more than mind boggling.

So you are basing your decision off of some threads on elitetrader?

Seriously, I think your intentions are misguided. Think over what you are really trying to accomplish and make sure its for the right reasons. You should have no problem sitting there and trading on a sim for a year if you really wanted to make it in this business. Think about it! You can start your business and straighten out all the kinks BEFORE you put any money into it! What other business allows you to do that????? You have basically decided that its not worth your time to trade unless you are making money. With this attitude I'll give you about a month.

good luck.

 

[random trader]

Quote from funky:



You do it with a simulator. So your motivation is money, not good trading?



So you are basing your decision off of some threads on elitetrader?

Seriously, I think your intentions are misguided. Think over what you are really trying to accomplish and make sure its for the right reasons. You should have no problem sitting there and trading on a sim for a year if you really wanted to make it in this business. Think about it! You can start your business and straighten out all the kinks BEFORE you put any money into it! What other business allows you to do that????? You have basically decided that its not worth your time to trade unless you are making money. With this attitude I'll give you about a month.

good luck.

I don't know how good trading and making money can be separated, i.e., how one can make money without trading well, or how one can manage to not make money by trading well. You have to explain it to me.

Simulators (or paper trades) don't work for most people; I use the examples on this board to support the case. It may work for you, but I know it doesn't work for me. If I paper trade, greed take overs and fear is missing. For example, I will buy all the calls or puts I can afford and hope for the windfall. If I wipe out one month I will try another month because it's not real money. If I do make a windfall, do I dare to use it with real money? Probably not because then the fear factor creeps back. So right from the start I know paper trade is useless for me because I know my own weakness.

Notice I didn't mention any system? If you cannot control your fear and greed, the best system in the world cannot save you. Control your fear and greed is No.1, everything else comes later. Most people display different fear and greed profiles when paper trade vs. real trade. That's why I believe it is a waste of time for most of us.

 

[OldTrader]

Quote from random trader:



First of all, I am not a good trader, yet. My account equity resembles a roller coaster more than anything else. I fought the uptrend since March and lost a large percentage. The main edge I have is that I am trading with money I can afford to lose, hence this "no fear no greed" experiment.

With the above in mind, I will address your question:
1. I look at SPX for market direction. DOW and NAZ mean as much to me as any RANDOMly chosen stock.
2. New highs are often great set-ups for divergence so I don't place too much weight in them.
3. I only look at weekly $SPX and $BPSPX charts with MACD and CCI to determine trend. I feel indeed the trend is changing now or will change to down soon. Yes, I know, I should not anticipate the turn, but wait for the confirmation of the turn. However, I don't have a system to confirm that, so my sense is as good as it gets.

I am wrong often and I could be wrong again this time. But I do believe I got a better chance than an average daytrader on this board. I have made many mistakes in the last 3 years, but my accounts haven't blown up. And I am still scheduled to retire at 65.

OK, gotcha. You're not claiming the intermediate trend is down....you're thinking we may top, and therefore you're 'picking a top'. I would only point out that this is the same strategy that cost you half your money since March, according to you.

Finally, I would say that 'trading with money you can afford to lose' is not an 'edge'. My guess is that most brokers would say that you SHOULD be trading with money you can afford to lose if you're trading futures. So rather than an edge, it's more like a 'condition'.

You know, emotions can be a good thing. The idea is to not make emotional decisions. But there isn't a human being I know of who doesn't have emotions. The question is whether you can control them. I've made some very wise trades taking quick losses, fearful that my loss was going to get even bigger.

OldTrader

 

[random trader]

ES 10 point (989-999) range so far. Looks like it will climb over 1000 today. On the wrong side of the market again, for the 1000000th time. Well, this is supposed to happen statistically. and statistically it should reverse and allow me to take profit before stop out. So I will keep the GTC buy @982 order and go to my meeting. Will be back after NY close. After all, day job is not free money.