I told you BS was BS!

No doubt,but I get the impression he is talking listed plain vanilla..

And if I am not mistaken,he doesnt trade options,so I am baffled

If I was trading options, which I don't because I haven't finished my analysis yet,





In fairness, there are examples of people using better models and making big bucks. One case study would be the guys at BoA who started using UVM for corporate call spreads. But this usually is in non-listed space and mostly driven by ability to manage these risks better
 
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You lost me...How do you propose you "outperform" BS??? Its a model,it doesnt produce returns..

Are you saying you dont trade options??? WTF is going on??? :)

simple,straight foward,easy to understand??

Is this your idea of joke??

"take short short side without having to sell anything"..

What does that mean????
yeah, i don't trade options.

I don't have a use for them right now. What's that got to do with model assessment?

short short is a typo, my bad.

Are you saying you can't measure the performance of BS in any way? Then how do you know it's good or bad? Seriously, I'm really asking. I feel like we might be getting somewhere.
 
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You are a hot mess

yeah, i don't trade options.

I don't have a use for them right now. What's that got to do with model assessment?

short short is a typo, my bad.

Are you saying you can't measure the performance of BS in any way? Then how do you know it's good or bad? Seriously, I'm really asking. I feel like we might be getting somewhere.
 
You lost me...How do you propose you "outperform" BS??? Its a model,it doesnt produce returns..

Are you saying you dont trade options??? WTF is going on??? :)

simple,straight foward,easy to understand??

Is this your idea of joke??

"take short short side without having to sell anything"..

What does that mean????
yeah, i don't trade options.

I don't have a use for them right now. What's that got to do with model assessment?

short short is a typo, my bad.

Are you saying you can't measure the performance of BS in any way? Then how do you know it's good or bad? Seriously, I'm really asking. I feel like we might be getting somewhere.


And it has no use for you.

Numerical methods converge to BSM. It doesn't matter what model you use provided you are consistent in its use among strips and tenors.
 
SMAcd admits that hasnt traded options..
SMAcd boasts that he can outperform BS..

How do you outperform a Model that spits out a value?? Its a theoretical value,not an indicator..

What's next,he going to boast he can outperform Discount Cash Flow analysis??

And admit he doesn't trade stocks..








Think smacd' points is that shouldn't something that is almost universally used .... be better than it is.
 
I realize that this question is addressed to taowave, but allow me to address it.

BS, with the appropriate vol param, returns good (not just decent, but objectively good) greeks. You can look at the options exchanges as markets for greeks, rather than individual options. As another poster (mrmuppet?) has pointed out, single name chains are neither deep nor liquid at the individual contract level, but are often pretty deep and liquid viewed as a market for greeeks. And, for any option position, a certain greek exposure is what you're really after.

You can, of course, with considerable effort, create an arb free price surface, fit some smooth function in log-strike and root-time to it, and derive relevant model-free greeks via finite differences or some similar numerical method. You will get, to within a few decimal places, the BS greeks. This has always amazed me, and is something I use (or programs written by me use) every day.

Similarly I use BS greeks to derive implied terminal distributions under the risk-neutral measure Q. Again, you can derive model-free RND's using quantile maximum-likelihood methods on those same smoothed price surfaces, but it is much more onerous, and you'll end up with the same exact (to a close approximation) terminal distributions. You can integrate these RND's times the payout function to recover all the options prices model free (without BS -- the prices match BS almost perfectly). This near-perfect match between BS and model free implied distros is also something that amazes me, and is also something that I use on a daily basis.

In fact an options pricing model can be thought of as a method to recover prices under the risk neutral measure. With a few tweaks (strike-expiry specific vols, mainly), BS does an excellent job of that.
@Kevin Schmit you use the terms Risk neutral measure and Risk neutral distribution (RND) in many of the discussions. Can you please ELI5 these for average retail traders? what are these and how to use them practically in trading like SPX options? TIA.
 
Think smacd' points is that shouldn't something that is almost universally used .... be better than it is.
We all know Newton's laws are just first order approximations to Einstein's laws of special and general relativity. But, I can still use Newton's laws to fly an airplane, guide a ballistic missile, control a satellite.... Unless I model the Universe, I don't need general relativity.
 
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