Here is something to think about. Across all indexes there is a certain line of resistance. This line is just a line, but a line none the less. Its mainly a psychological line.
We all look at these monitors countless hours studying every aspect of these charts. Sometimes it comes down to one simple line.
During the day when you are trading positions, price doesnt seem to get past a certain line and then retreats not to be seen back to that point for weeks or months. For example, LNG today and TASR in February. Those stocks both hit certain points in the past before making a major retreat. Why? Its because the collective bunch of traders was just following Mr. Livermores advice and wisdom of not trading the stock past a major high on the chart.
So I present to you one of the things Im looking at:
$INDU- In 2000 and 2005, price struggled to get past the current point. In 2000, it traded along that line for months before a breakdown. In 2005 it traded along that line for months before a break up.
$SPX- 1998, 2992, and 2004 are areas of commonality
$MID- In 2006, price reached 818.87 before making its pivot down. The high this time around was 814.92
$OEX- The underbelly of 2005...
You believe what you want to believe, but the theory of not getting past a major point on the chart is what I live by and has saved me on a number of occasions. Thats what I feel is going on right now. I dont believe its technical or fundamental, but psychological. There was no reason for TASR or LNG not to get past that last point. Its just that traders were afraid to take it higher...
As the market pulls back, traders will liquidate their positions in the majority of stocks so all will get hit except for a select few. I dont know how far it will pullback, but I suspect we will not get past the high of this week any time soon...it may take several months to get back to this point.
The downfall will be confirmed when the SPX or ES breaks past last weeks close (Fridays close) which it attempted to do today.
I saw Najarian on CNBC yesterday say that institutions were buying MBI in "large beefy chunks". It looks like those ""chunks" got vomitted up by the retail investors that got suckered in by that crap today.
The time to have been long was on February 4th. The indexes have increased, they are all hitting a certain resistance point and May is just around the corner. This is the perfect time for a huge correction with June or July being the bottom. So go to cash now, stop trading for a few weeks or even get short once the bottom falls out, but do not get long this market....
