I think I figured out why trading can never work for so many people

do you also bet against a pivot high or low for a failed break out trade by simply placing your order to buy the prev low or sell the prev high? or do confirm with bar formations instead of just placing your order at specific level??
 
Quote from jack hershey:

show me one thing the market does over and over that puts the odds in my favor.


This is what one person (the OP) wants so he can begin.


If you want to just look at price (the dependent variable) to shift the odds to your favor, then what I post below is a good beginning. Also, more than BE odds were requested.

I'll post two examples so that readers can see there are many ways to make money.

You look.

To increase odds as a goal

Take out the half of the bars that are unimportant.

Only do making money on the half that are important.

To make it easy, let the computer do the "looking" and let the computer color in the "box" of the bar you throw away.

1. (((H.1 >= H) Or( L.1 <=L)) and ((V.1 > V))).

Four shapes are in this expression and I threw in volume just to not trip anyone up even a little. I color these in lite yellow.

Notice these pairs can overlap as well. When they do you have higher odds since another bar is out of your picutre.

the Present is H, L and V. The prior bar is H.1, L.1 and V.1.

2. If (V.1 > V) is false, then you must not throw away the second bar.

Regardless of anything else, look for three bars where you can use their occurance to turn and make money doing late price turns or stop losing money if you gotinto a trade wrongly. Again this is just to exit something you got into by anyway you ge into something and you are focussing on making your odds better.

3. Short to long.

((H.3 = H.2) < H)) And (( L.3 > (L.2 =L))

Here are two consecutive stitches where the first is Red and the second is Black.

4. Long to short.

(( L.3 = L.2) > L)) And ((H.3 < (H.2=H))

Here are two consecutive stitches where the first is Black and the second is Red.


On 3 and 4 you will be a little uncertain since you are skipping using the independent variable as a guide. I make the boxes of these two a different lite color than yellow.


Between ends of trends, you keep the odds more in your favor by watching each new bar make trend progress.. Use the definition of trending bars.



When you do not use any of these examples, you do not have good odds, as Nodoji instructed you. At that time, and by following Nodoji's instructions, you are seeking edges in price.

When you get one thing the market does over and over, then you begin to think , as you say, of the odds.
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A quality post, easy to understand and work with ... Thank you Jack.
 
Quote from ChkitOut:

Simply put, they grow to hate it.

After a while, a trader will sit at his computer and say, this stuff is so beyond stupid. They will never be able to tolerate dealing with a probabilistic work environment every single day enough to get over the big hump and into profitability.

And to take it a step further and probably more important, they cant work in a world of subjectivity. You can have 10 different traders giving you 10 different reasons why a trade may or may not be ok. And maybe all 10 of those traders are profitable but the lack of clarity and subjectivity are enough to drive a learning trader nuts.

Imagine working at a pizza shop and everybody in the room is giving different instructions on how you need to cook the pizza in order for it to come out good. You would take off your apron, throw it on the floor and storm out yelling, 'you people are a bunch of wackjobs!"

Well, this is the trading world. And quite frankly, it sucks.
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HA! This is pretty funny. Stop talking with other 'traders' - I sit with headphones on and just zone out. Skype/Aim etc. is a buzz kill. You think a surgeon or a pilot sits and chats when they're at work? This is not a business fo eunuchs.
 
of course its hard. its just like how many people can hit a 98 mph fast ball? you can teach a 100% of the population to do that? people are born with characteristic's and with hard work they excel on that ability.

Quote from ChkitOut:

i dont think its about being hard or easy. there are a lot of hard things that people love to do, like playing piano, like learning about biology and dna, or computer programming. All those things are hard to do and take years to get good at BUT the rules are clear, there is nothing hidden, the text books are clear, people see other successful piano players and chemists and programmers.

In trading there is zero clarity about anything and most dont know any traders making money so that imo, is a big reason why they will grow to hate it before they can make it. among other reasons but sticking to the point of the thread....

most people will argue that trading is plain hard and thats why most will not do well, but hard is the wrong word. too mysterious is more so the right word i think. people dont like investing a ton of time into mysterious things that are not clear.
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Quote from Ol' Yella:

Uh-oh. Here we go again. :D

one of the fun things about ET is there's always entertainment--- fights, conspiracy theories...........

I have read through some old threads

it seems people like to think Nodoji is someone else in disguise

here are the people I have seen her accused of being:

Anekdoten
Redneck
Jack Hershey
Al Brooks
Oliver Velez
being a dude in real life
being a closet vendor
and now... Cornix

did i mis any?? :p
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I think she's Mark Douglas
a closet vendor
 
Quote from NoDoji:

"Once you've done the research to determine the odds of one thing happening over another and develop a trading plan based on that research, the only clarity and certainty you need is a set of rules for execution. The only talent you need at that point is the ability to execute without hesitation when the conditions are met.

It works so well, it seems unreal at times."

This is very true. The best strat is worth nil zero, if you don't execute it, especially hesitating to exit when a trade is in a loss. Hesitating to enter a new trade costs no money - there is always a new opportunity ahead, as certain as there is always a next bus coming your way.

One of my trader buddies often told me "trust your f...riendly signals".

Happy trading, Felix
 
If you look at the markets and you have no clue about the direction, you will never make money. Even being quant, Phd or rocket scientist will not change that.
Some see and most don't see. That's all.

Some see the 3 and some don't.
 

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