If a bear attacks, all you have to be able to do is outrun the person you're 'outdooring' with :->)
I need help with trading options
- Thread starter ilovemoney01
- Start date
I'm actually going to semi-agree with him because I think trend following has changed. It is fairly difficult to algorithmically follow a trend these days because the simple systems that worked no longer work.
Of course, trend following also includes buying and holding the SPX for the last 10 years. It's really perspective.
I viewed his statement more generously - in that a consistent, algorithmic, and reliable trend following system is very difficult to stumble upon because of how complete the library of standard indicators a typical trader has. The standard trend information that represented edge before now disseminates to all traders with half a platform in real time.
This doesn't mean it's impossible but it definitely takes far more ingenuity than it used to.
Amen ...
I restarted my Twitter account (deleted the old one, and restarted with a new one) so as to keep people away from knowing who I am, trying to keep the follower count under 200.
But I am somewhat sad, that I have not had the new account blocked yet by Taleb. It's rare to run across such a thin skinned twat for an "academic". But he is definitely the worst of the worst. I almost view a Twitter account as "established" once it's been blocked by Taleb. LOL
And you know that he'd say "we're just misquoting him" ... LOL
%%
And track/record cash stocks also. Compare over the years...…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
As far as Options? To answer the OP
If you really want to learn, then these two guys are probably your best bet:
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn
Two old OEX traders from the pit, and it's all free.
As far as OptionSellers? I was actually recently to give a presentation to a small group of aspiring traders. I made OptionSellers.com my topic.
Reading through their materials? It's rare to find someone doing things that stupid, with that much money. I found myself literally laughing out loud as I reading through their materials.
I don't know who gives Options a worse name ... either A) People buying low delta, high IV options for directional bets, and dying the death of 1,000 cuts, or B) People with undefined risk / premium sellers, with no understanding of portfolio construction and inverse correlated positions.
Heck, OptionSellers was doing B, IN THIN markets to boot. God, that takes a special level of stupid.
I'd probably go with B, because their blowups are usually more spectacular.
If you really want to learn, then these two guys are probably your best bet:
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn
Two old OEX traders from the pit, and it's all free.
As far as OptionSellers? I was actually recently to give a presentation to a small group of aspiring traders. I made OptionSellers.com my topic.
Reading through their materials? It's rare to find someone doing things that stupid, with that much money. I found myself literally laughing out loud as I reading through their materials.
I don't know who gives Options a worse name ... either A) People buying low delta, high IV options for directional bets, and dying the death of 1,000 cuts, or B) People with undefined risk / premium sellers, with no understanding of portfolio construction and inverse correlated positions.
Heck, OptionSellers was doing B, IN THIN markets to boot. God, that takes a special level of stupid.
I'd probably go with B, because their blowups are usually more spectacular.
The reality is that order flow across assets has been made more efficient by automated trading/algorithmic trading.
They are using order pacing (randomization/dynamic execution) and liquidity adaptive algorithms to minimize sub-optimal trade execution(s).
They have programs to manage and measure the utilized algorithms effectiveness, ready to rotate in a more context appropriate execution algo in real-time if it determines (or anticipates) sub-optimal execution will occur.
Then, the real trade is money flowing from fixed income derivatives into equity derivatives and back.
This is where the trend is now.
It is a spread of instruments that is trending strongly, not a single one. The trade is termed Risk on / Risk off.
Providing liquidity competitively is a service (HFT, colocation, ultra-low latency) and the largest consumer of that service are the largest players in the investment management arena; Goldman, Morgan, UBS, Barclays, Citi, Merril, etc.
It follows that primitive attempts to fit a static algorithm to a single instrument are not competitive with the aforementioned systems.
I'd have to strongly disagree when it comes to having simple Algorithmic Trading Processes, or simple processes not working.
Every process my firm uses, is either
GREY Box Algo - And ridiculously simplistic (3 of those are running simultaneously)
or Systemic Discretionary - And ridiculously simplistic to implement a few of those.
Our Firm and it's performance is built, on simplicity. HFT and BLACK Box Algo's have _ _ zero _ _ impact on any periodicity greater than 3 seconds. They make for a convenient boogeyman, but the reason Hunsander refused to speak with me any further on that particular point? Is because he refused to address the only point that matters.
Great. Wonderful Eric. All true. What impact is there on ANY of this to a Risk Overlay and Periodicity Strat of 3 hours?
All you're going to get from ol' Eric is either:
A) A Blank stare or
B) What i received, a Blank Stare and then him saying: "Do you have any idea who I am?" (Dink answer by the way)
At which point, I pulled a Stephen from Braveheart: "Yeah, I know who you are ol' man, now answer the *$&%^ question!"
The answer? It has ZERO impact to any strat with a periodicity of 3 hours. None.
Oh, and a little aside about ol' Eric as to why he does not know? Is because ... he has never traded, placed a trade, looked at a net-net positive expectancy trading process, nor knows the first thing about them.
Honestly, especially with all of the Plug-In-Play Quant Tools available to folks nowadays (Amibroker and the like), you get a decent coder?
Strategies are the easy part. Ironic, in that this is what trips up most aspring traders. But strategies are a dime a dozen. We only use 6, but I have access to like ... 35 to 50.
It's the rest of it that's the really hard part.
Finding good lawyers who know compliance and all the exemptions, and the things that trip you up there.
A good accountant, who doesn't screw up come Tax Time for a Foreign Partner.
Trying to get someone you pitch, to understand what it is you are doing; without spilling
Exchanges that have become insanely greedy in the last few years, and want to charge you for every little thing.
E&O Insurance.
Key Man Risk, and bringing a Partner on that can mitigate that for the good of the Firm.
All that (and more) is the hard part.
A strategy that has positive expectancy? That's easy.
Every process my firm uses, is either
GREY Box Algo - And ridiculously simplistic (3 of those are running simultaneously)
or Systemic Discretionary - And ridiculously simplistic to implement a few of those.
Our Firm and it's performance is built, on simplicity. HFT and BLACK Box Algo's have _ _ zero _ _ impact on any periodicity greater than 3 seconds. They make for a convenient boogeyman, but the reason Hunsander refused to speak with me any further on that particular point? Is because he refused to address the only point that matters.
Great. Wonderful Eric. All true. What impact is there on ANY of this to a Risk Overlay and Periodicity Strat of 3 hours?
All you're going to get from ol' Eric is either:
A) A Blank stare or
B) What i received, a Blank Stare and then him saying: "Do you have any idea who I am?" (Dink answer by the way)
At which point, I pulled a Stephen from Braveheart: "Yeah, I know who you are ol' man, now answer the *$&%^ question!"
The answer? It has ZERO impact to any strat with a periodicity of 3 hours. None.
Oh, and a little aside about ol' Eric as to why he does not know? Is because ... he has never traded, placed a trade, looked at a net-net positive expectancy trading process, nor knows the first thing about them.
Honestly, especially with all of the Plug-In-Play Quant Tools available to folks nowadays (Amibroker and the like), you get a decent coder?
Strategies are the easy part. Ironic, in that this is what trips up most aspring traders. But strategies are a dime a dozen. We only use 6, but I have access to like ... 35 to 50.
It's the rest of it that's the really hard part.
Finding good lawyers who know compliance and all the exemptions, and the things that trip you up there.
A good accountant, who doesn't screw up come Tax Time for a Foreign Partner.
Trying to get someone you pitch, to understand what it is you are doing; without spilling
Exchanges that have become insanely greedy in the last few years, and want to charge you for every little thing.
E&O Insurance.
Key Man Risk, and bringing a Partner on that can mitigate that for the good of the Firm.
All that (and more) is the hard part.
A strategy that has positive expectancy? That's easy.
Sosnoff gives his stuff away free for a reason
... as he frequently says "there ain't anything more expensive than something that is given away free"
It's just a little trading entertainment !