Trend following is dead. A trend is no longer a well defined thing. Died many many decades ago.
I need help with trading options
- Thread starter ilovemoney01
- Start date
Maybe it is good enough for selling weekly options.
Disagree, trends of in length from 5mins to 90mins are still available and still strong, longer than that it gets tricky.
"ATR!!!" I so wish I could snap my fingers and go back in time, to when carving points out of the ES (and MA and BIDU and MMM and all those others tick-scalping favorites of mine...) was done as fast as I could click my mouse. I'd love for the *data* to confirm what I suspect since I 'discovered' that purpose of the ATR. Y'see, I *knew* what I wanted to see in candles, but I didn't know it had a name, NOR a easy number attached to it. And BOY OH BOY there were certain days when I should NOT have been trading.
And the ATR would've set me straight from the get-go....
This is totally idiotic.
A trend is any directional movement with respect to time, whether that is in the quotes, or for any estimator of the average price transacted.
Every day of the week Bonds, Bills, and Notes are trending all day long.
Trends lure in market participants. They are absolutely essential for the functioning of any securities market. But market participants have become more sophisticated.
The real truth is that relative performance and relative value are what drive price and trend. So the guys looking for trends in outright charts are only seeing half the story, or even less.
Here is a chart of a market cap spread with the DJIA futures overlayed in purple. Three weeks of clear trending followed by a selloff. Market participants found a trend they liked.
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Amahrix said:
Trend following is dead.
Oh! You thought he was *serious*?!? I thought it was hilarious. My bad!
Trend following is dead.
Oh! You thought he was *serious*?!? I thought it was hilarious. My bad!
Hi, thankd for this. Do you employ these tactics to buy options? If so do you mind expanding a little on how you determine when to buy an option using Donchian Channels? Thanks.
Wouldn't you expect the trend on a long term chart to be stronger? Thanks.
I sell options as most retail traders do. If you want to buy options then sell some others, even in another market, then you get a free trade. Search on risk reversal.
I'd echo your sentiments. I have a fellow trader friend who listens to tastytrade every day and follows many of their recommendations. He informs me of the positions (recommended and taken) and AFAIC, they take on too much concentrated unhedged risk. I don't have a problem with risk but spread it around. IMO, if you're going to follow their trades, you really need to understand how to adjust as well as how to defend your positions, and you need to be able to do it decisively. If it's moving against you during after hours, use the underlying to stem the bleeding.