I love the transparency of this market....
- Thread starter NoahA
- Start date
Oy. .00000001, and then you go .000000001 is an order of magnitude higher. That a lot of sats!
There is no need to increase decimal places. When bitcoin goes to 1 million, base layer transactions will be very expensive, so its not like we will need even smaller fractions of a bitcoin to interact with the base layer. I think the only way it will scale is with what even Satoshi and Hal called Bitcoin banks. Its very much like Liquid BTC where they hold the actual BTC and create their own tokens which will be 100% collateralized. These tokens can then have a fraction of a satoshi.
I have watched hundreds of hours on this, and bitcoin scaling is very hard, and I really think the only way is via this route. Even Lightning I don't believe in too much because it still needs on-chain transactions. I personally have no problem with trusted custodians as long as proof of reserves is shown, and a rug pull could only to be carried out by many individuals that are known and who are distributed.
Thanks for sharing this. Its really interesting to try and understand the different cycles and I would be exactly like you.... being upset about losing 50k, but down right horrified at watching 7 figures go down the drain.
But here is the thing... I truly believe the next cycle will be nothing like the last cycle. In fact, we are already seeing that the low from November isn't climbing as quickly as previous cycles, and I also think that the drop after the peak won't be as severe. The previous cycles have taught you to try and time an exit at the top and get out. This maybe mean selling after a 25% drop or whatever you decide. But I think for this next cycle, all that will happen is that it will run up again and leave you underexposed.
It makes sense to sell after a 25% drop and start buying back in when it has gone down 75%. But to me, because this is so obvious by now, it just won't happen. The bitcoin is now in stronger hands, and the future supply will be vastly less because of all the halvings. I can see us sell at -25%, protecting from a further drop, but then it goes back up without us. So its almost like selling on the next cycle might not be the smartest thing to do.
Ok, so let's forget the past and, today, bitcoin is $42k each, what is stopping you from putting all your life savings as I am doing also and in 10 years when bitcoin is over $1M each, you can reap the rewards of being very lucky today and putting your life savings
If you have a gold bar with 1 Trillion atoms, you don't say I have 1 Trillion gold bars, do you?
Or if you have a $100 bill and went to the bank to exchange for 10,000 pennies, you don't tell people bro, look, I have 10,000 $100 bills and show them the pennies?
Likewise, those will not be called sats (satoshis), they will be called something else, like naks (nakamotos)
I very much like this idea. Lyn Alden and Nik Bhatia have talked about layers, since bitcoin is a base layer money, like gold, no liabilities
We have not seen the full blown bull market of this cycle but we do not have long to wait. The next 2 years will prove if you are correct or a lot of us moonbois Bitcoiners are saying $1M because of supply shock
Samson Mow is saying $1M/btc within 6 months, but maybe I like this guy's math of $13M/btc
Either way, it's going to be an exciting 2 years, buckle up, crypto bros!!!!
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John...bubbe...I am not trying to be your enemy, I am your friend. (and that's a Star Trek reference, too!.)
You didn't answer the question.
I'm super bullish as well. When we get to $1M, it will have passed the market cap of gold. This of course won't go unnoticed. All the property owners will also see this and wonder if they are holding onto a dead and depreciating asset. And when this happens, I think it also means there are major structural problems in the fiat system. This won't be a parabolic rise that everyone expects to then crash like GME or AMC. This will be a major fundamental change of the whole system. There literally might not be any major retracements. Once it hits this high level, it means that other people have bought into the narrative of a crumbling fiat currency, and then there is no going back.
I know Arthur Hayes predicts the mother of all rallies and then a major dump, but I think there is a chance that its the mother of all rallies, and then we just go sideways. Why would there be a dump? Who will go back into fiat? Sure, I might want to buy property, not as an investment, but simply to live in, so I would sell. And US dollars will of course always be used as a method of payment. But selling BTC will only be done if you need to convert it to something that you need in the moment. In the past we have seen people selling Bitcoin when liquidity dries up, and I think I saw a snippet where Elon apparently said the bitcoin on Tesla's balance sheet was sold since they needed the money, but Space X still has theirs. (I would love if someone can link the proof of this or verify if I got it right) But if you need liquidity for fiat that is failing, and you see bitcoin going up every day, why even convert if you have bitcoin? Just default on the fiat obligations.
Anyway... so yes, I am bullish, and because of this, I think the cycles may in some way be broken. Its like those math problems about the spider in the well who climbs up 2 feet a day, but slides down 1 foot during the rain. When he get to the top, he is out, so you no longer have to factor in the 1 foot drop to figure out how long it takes him to get out. If the top of this next cycles brings mass adoption, there is no need for another dump.
And its still only one pizza.
