Harvesting risk premium. Buying assets with relative value in somewhat illiquid markets. Using leverage. Structuring decisions in a way that increases optionality, especially when it's cheap or free. I don't think I'd consider myself an expert trader or businessman, I run high variance and I have made millions but also lost millions.
I wouldn't say I want you to take me seriously. Although my wife did tell me my reply sounded pretentious lol, so I apologize for giving off that vibe. We'll each trade our beliefs and in the long run capital will tend to concentrate toward those with a more accurate view of the economic world paired with good pathing through the distribution.
Dialogues like these don't tend to be very productive for either party. I started from scratch though, and I had to change some of my beliefs in order to start finding success. People have went out on a small limb for me before and tried to share their perspective even when I was resistant to superior ideas. So that's where I'm coming from I guess.
Last thought,
So it's these smart people on podcasts and very early adopters of experimental technology that happened to be the one to take off, versus the aggregate controllers of trillions of dollars of capital, the owners of the largest companies, governments, etc., structured around the current world order. My advice is to try to assign a percentage chance that each party has the right view, and base your decisions off that, instead of getting stuck in binary thinking.
The problem with staking your decisions around a very small sliver of the forward distribution of outcomes is that you are creating a lottery-like effect. Which is your prerogative, but even if there's expected value there, if you over commit, 99/100 times you are just living in a depleted state in the aftermath. There's plenty of opportunity finding/creating value around the mean.
Maybe set a mental stoploss somewhere, like if BTC isn't above $250K on x date, you'll re-evaluate your stance, so you don't spend too much time positioned around a probability estimation and related economic beliefs that turn out to be inaccurate. Best of luck.
You are brainwashed by the fiat debt-based monetary system, my friend
The current fiat system has many tricks for different types of people and I think by far the most insidious is for people such as yourself, very high IQ, successful, and rewarded with luxuries for your hard work, makes you think everything is based on merit, it strokes your ego and makes you complacent
Money is 1. medium of exchange, 2. unit of account, 3. store of value
Most people are focused on #1, but they do not focus on the most important, which is #3
There's a reason we always recommend the book The Bitcoin Standard as it gives clear history how money has been manipulated throughout history until now, to steal the wealth, the hard work for the benefit of the ones in charge
The Bitcoin Standard from what I remember did not even discuss Bitcoin in detail until chapter 7
You say $250k/btc by a certain date, and as a Bitcoiner, dude, no problem, that's an easy goal, but at the root of your challenge is a fiat mindset
Why does bitcoin have to hit a certain $ price for it to prove to you that it's successful? It's because in your fiat mindset, you know that what you consider money is always losing value, year after year, the $
Let's reverse the challenge, what if I told you that bitcoin will not go below $10,000 by a certain date you pick and then you will accept that you're wrong?
Bitcoin does not have to do anything, it has proven itself by simply still existing up to now, from a price of
$0.001 to $40,000
You joined ET on Sept/2013 btc price was $120'sh, I bought my first bitcoin in April (or May) of the same year, did you know the goal for bitcoin price back then for it to be successful was $10,000/btc and we were all saying no fucking way, we're already thinking how life changing it would be for all of us who bought at $100/btc
But even now at $40,000/btc people like yourself are still unconvinced, now you're saying it has to hit $250,000/btc by a certain date
Bitcoin will go to $1,000,000 price but it will not end there. It will continue to go up in price against the $ and all fiat currencies
Fiat is presented as good money, but it's a ponzi scam
Bitcoin is presented as a ponzi scam, but it's the best money
My family's life savings and net worth are mostly in bitcoin
If I ask you where you put your family's life savings and most of your net worth, you'll say diversified in stocks, real estate, maybe some alternative investments like art, maybe some debt instruments like bonds
All of them are based on fiat unit of account. You're storing your wealth, your hard work because you are trying to overcome the fiat debasement that you are aware is happening, but look the other way
https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/why-the-yuppie-elite-dismiss-bitcoin
Bitcoin is the best money in the history of the world. It will suck the value out of all the pseudo money out there
Adopting Bitcoin is not an option. Everyone will do it, some sooner than others
I wish you the best of luck, as well
