I Hope I'm Wrong

El OchoCinco said:
Putin already been making large scale assaults and bombings on Ukraine....I dont think Biden not running again really changes his behavior. Also China will never invade Taiwan, it is all political posturing. China been saber rattling since 1949. Also China has watched Russia get ostracized by the world and its economy suffer greatly. China is a closeted capitalist making billions a year as an exporter of manufactured goods and raw materials.

There is often a fear tactic of low munitions to increase defense spending because there are about 8-10 private corporations who lobby heavy for it because it makes them millions. I do not doubt that we are too low in weapons and manpower to fight a war on two fronts because it is not a reality to be that loaded with weapons and ships and such, we sell them to other countries now.

The one area where trump is landing well is the idea that other countries are getting rich off of our consumer economy and defense spending so they need to step up. Problem is nobody except maybe Russia makes weapons like we do. Catch 22.....

The current era is small regional conflicts rather than all out wars. It is too easy to bomb from offshore or drones that you dont need boots on the ground as much.

All of this, to me, is not predicated on who is president because Congress constantly approves defense spedning on aid to these countries no matter who is in the white house. Congress may play political games to get what they want and hold up aid. But billions always is created out of thin air for other countries yet we cant do shit in our own home.
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I tend to agree with what you're saying, I have said for years China won't move on Taiwan, but the rhetoric has really heated up as of late and China keeps pushing and pushing the limit, unchecked, in the S. China Sea. There are people a lot smarter than you and I in these matters that are saying it's not a matter of "if" anymore, Xi is going to move on Taiwan."

I have no idea, BUT, if they're right, now would be an ideal time. It's not about Biden not getting re-elected... it's because right now, we don't have a President. In a way. And yes, I know we have the Cabinet heads and the Joint Chiefs... but right now, for the first time since... whenever... because of everything that is going on... everything.... there's a 3 month window. And again to your point, I 100% agree, once we have a President elect, regardless of who it is, the window is closed.

My point starting this thread was not to postulate whether or not these things would happen, my point was, on the real-life geo-political game of Risk, if China and Russia were so inclined, a window has opened that if used would give them a significant first mover advantage by exploiting (and also intensifying) our political and societal mess.

You have to think what would happen. Trump (you guys all say he is a dictator) might say "I'm gonna be President and I have to act" and take matters into his own hands. Not militarily obviously, but via violations of the Hatch Act. The Dems would go nuts, the Maga's would be screaming "he's trying to save our country"... there's no telling what would happen. Chaos within. It's a classic move. "No bombs needed, let your biggest foe fight a war within, against themselves."
 
Van, I think you're overreacting. And all this because Biden is not going to run? Is this not what you wanted? That he not be president after this term?

You are one complex carbohydrate who's hard to please.
 
The selection of Vance plays out differently around the world.

Putin is sort of the winner there because Vance wants out of Ukraine involvement.

But part of his position is that we should not be involved in Ukraine because we need to double and triple down on confronting China. Xi not the winner there.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
The selection of Vance plays out differently around the world.

Putin is sort of the winner there because Vance wants out of Ukraine involvement.

But part of his position is that we should not be involved in Ukraine because we need to double and triple down on confronting China. Xi not the winner there.
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Sure. Lock the front door, but leave the back window wide open. Sounds like a plan.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Van, I think you're overreacting. And all this because Biden is not going to run? Is this not what you wanted? That he not be president after this term?

You are one complex carbohydrate who's hard to please.
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There's no "over-reacting." I merely provide narrative as I see it. I let the rest of you whine back and forward over who wants who to be president. I have my hands full trying to beat the market.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Sure. Lock the front door, but leave the back window wide open. Sounds like a plan.
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What don't you Canadian freeloaders concentrate on trying to pay your fair share of NATO instead of relying on American protection as too many NATO members do.

We don't need freeloaders like you lecturing the Americans on how we need to do even more because you bums are doing nothing.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
What don't you Canadian freeloaders concentrate on trying to pay your fair share of NATO instead of relying on American protection as too many NATO members do.

We don't need freeloaders like you lecturing the Americans on how we need to do even more because you bums are doing nothing.
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Cool ramblings, but does not address my point.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Cool ramblings, but does not address my point.
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First, you explain how the back door is being left open.

The back door begins at the border of a NATO country- anything beyond that may or may not be protected, at the discretion of the United States.

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