Quote from rolegario:
Mr Market --
After having read through your stock picking model, one question sticks out. You clearly state in your model to "Buy this stock. In a typical bull market, the stock will, on average, achieve a 15% gain within 4 to 6 weeks. Sell the stock and repeat the process." And yet, in your "open positions" table you list six stocks (PTSI, ACMR, FRED, AXL, OHB, and CHKE) that have an average loss of 15.8% and that you've held for over a year.
By holding those positions for so long you're going against your model, tying up capital, and potentially compounding unrealized losses. Can you please reconcile this? Wouldn't it have been better to dump these stocks after 6 weeks and free up your capital to put it into more productive positions?
If you add your current holdings that are older than 6 weeks to your closed trades (since the start of 2002), you have 27 trades for an average gain of 8.35%. Still impressive, but roughly half the return of what you're claiming.
As an update:
* I sold ACMR for a 16% gain on July 14, 2003 (a 13% annualized gain).
* I sold FRED for a 15% gain on August 1, 2003 (a 12% annualized gain).
* I still hold AXL and am up 9% on it.
* I sold OHB for a 21% gain on June 17, 2003 (a 20% annualized return).
* I still hold CHKE and am up 3% on it.
* I still hold PTSI and am down 25% on it.
So what was wrong with holding all of these stocks? I made money on 5 of the 6 positions.
