I gotta tell you - these markets are too insane for me

[iceman1]

Quote from denner:

2008 was very much like this, albeit with more volatility and alot of very palpable fear. This time around I sense just an overwhelming complacency that Europe can somehow repeat the same measures that the US pulled off 3 years ago...only it hasn't happened and every day for the past 3+ months, the markets are fully dependent upon more political rhetoric to give it direction.

Definitely, the longer we chop around, essentially compressing around this 200 day moving average, the less interest there seems to be for anybody to press their positions.

Thanks.

Why do you believe we get repeated selling in last 45-1hour like today and/or late buying. No one wants to hold overnight positions (long or short as the case may be) with an equivocal market, and economic uncertainty ??!

Is this really typical chop with VIX at these levels ? Is this expiry related, which would be my take. All day we trend higher and then suddenly we reverse in last 45 minutes. I can't help but believe that some guys are getting hammered by this action.

 

[StarDust9182]

Quote from Maverick74:

Iceman, these markets feel pretty normal to me.

Respectfully, these markets don't "feel" totally normal to me. They are exhibiting multiple numerical statistical anomalies so it is not just a feel. One of my daily input information sources has confirmed exactly what is statistically odd several times this year.

I will note that just before Aug 1, mid-Sept and now there have been whole weeks that certain things "have happened for the first time ever" in 100 years etc.

I don't know what is causing it, or if it is simply a phase the market is going through, but it feels bad to me. It reflects the confusion of even experienced traders I think.

 

[stock777]

Most here love it the more impossible and insane it gets.

Thats cause it gives them a chance to run up huge profits in their paper trading accounts (that run on a 30 second lag) so they can come here and tell us how smart they are.

Ask for some of these genii for a winning trade or two. Shouldnt be a problem

 

[iceman1]

Quote from HFStartup:

Iceman1,

I typically hold positions from 4 to 180 days and over the past year have experienced no more than a 4% drawdown. The key is to remain hedged AND to trade directionless trades. I am smart enough to realize I am not smart enough to predict where any market is going.

Best of luck.

I hear that

Wow, so many opportunities but to partake you gotta leave your ass exposed. So I take both sides, and swing in and out, discretionary. Making good calls, only feel the need to hedge and spread thereby getting caught when APPL goes up 45 points and I make only 8 points. Of course in hindsight I am beginning to implement an exit and re-enter strategy. Just hate to ring register, and then jump (plunge?) back in only to see reversal of momentum like happened today in last 45 minutes, and cut into that earlier profit. I sold AAPL 380 and 385c at least 5xs yesterday; traded SLB Nov 6750c and Dec 75c multiple times in past few weeks, etc.

If you exit too soon, when a trend does happen you may not be positioned to be rewarded with enough bang for the time and energy buck, or be unwilling to "chase" the train. If you stay in overnight you gotta tolerate the repeated gap openings almost every fricking day. Like a dartboard. If it gaps your way, then you're a genius. If not... ??!! Never saw so many gaps in the past 20 years.

I know we should all recognize when the train is leaving the station but in the recent markets it's seems like that train is on a circular path like running around a baseball diamond. Like I said, a shell game.

However I agree with the poster who suggested adapting your strategies to the market. As I said, think these markets do present many great opportunities that you didn't get in some of the sluggish markets of years past.

 

[jnbadger]

Quote from Maverick74:

Iceman, these markets feel pretty normal to me. If anything, a little dull. We've been stuck in wide trading ranges all year. But there is plenty of action in other markets like oil and nat gas that have been one way trades. I'm not really sure I understand your gripe. Markets are not "suppose" to go straight up or straight down.

Yeah, I've been trading the indexes a lot more lately, and it is nice. If your opinion is simply coming from the daily ranges, then yes. But IMO these markets are crazy in a way but very organized in their tradability. (is that a word?)

Hell, I look back on a daily chart at the narrow daily ranges from December and January, and they actually look a bit nightmarish to me.

 

[denner]

Quote from StarDust9182:

Respectfully, these markets don't "feel" totally normal to me. They are exhibiting multiple numerical statistical anomalies so it is not just a feel. One of my daily input information sources has confirmed exactly what is statistically odd several times this year.

I will note that just before Aug 1, mid-Sept and now there have been whole weeks that certain things "have happened for the first time ever" in 100 years etc.

I don't know what is causing it, or if it is simply a phase the market is going through, but it feels bad to me. It reflects the confusion of even experienced traders I think.

I agree and that's why I think it feels like 2008, albeit the difference is that in 2008 the "market" was still in the dark in so far as what the policy response would be...now, there is a great deal of complacency and many assumptions that everyone, everywhere will be accomodative forever. The headlines out of the Eurozone have become a running joke with the "good cop/bad cop" routine that runs the market lower and then higher, rinse/repeat, etc, etc...

I did see one of the statistical anomalies you are referring to from sentimentrader.com...some stat about the number of 1% opening gaps occuring on 13 out of 15 trading sessions. The outcome wasn't positive, but then again each and every episode in recent years leads me to believe that these are most definitely unchartered waters regardless of how people will spin things...

 

[denner]

Quote from jnbadger:

Yeah, I've been trading the indexes a lot more lately, and it is nice. If your opinion is simply coming from the daily ranges, then yes. But IMO these markets are crazy in a way but very organized in their tradability. (is that a word?)

Hell, I look back on a daily chart at the narrow daily ranges from December and January, and they actually look a bit nightmarish to me.

Mostly agree, with the caveat that something is going to "blow" in a big way in the not too distant future. All of this chopping right around that 200d moving average (in a whole host of different asset classes btw). It's just become a bit too "cute" that the pols. can basically talk the market up and down with very little consequence...thus far.

After all, we've been hearing about every damn nouveau financial contraption to try and essentially monetize all the bad European debts for 3 months running. Things have progressively gotten worse and yet equity markets are really just chopping around in predictable trading range (for the most part).

 

[StarDust9182]

Quote from stock777:


Thats cause it gives them a chance to run up huge profits in their paper trading accounts (that run on a 30 second lag) ..........

A super trading idea - we could do paper trading arbitrage against a live feed and make millions in paper money! Of course even the currency is paper money.

This comment is not directed at stock777, but just my observation on other threads:

Isn't it odd that those who can't do it are so quick to assume that nobody can do it? They must have big egos that need feeding I guess.

 

[mikeenday]

most of the times I trade in the last 5 minutes before market closes. It saved my positions (all puts) greatly today.

also I would suggest only trade one direction for certain time period, stick to it , but with stoploss, of course.

Quote from iceman1:

wow, i guess my view should be that these crazy moves are opportunities. My inclination is to reduce risk, by spreading and hedging. Every fricking time I do that it seems that I reduce the impact of a move (meaning profits get cut short).

Today I scale in to OIH Dec 135p thinking I may have to wait a few weeks to cash in; so I spread against 124p. AFTER ALL oil is making new interim highs. So who the f-ck would figure we get a sell off. OF course I am glad we did.

But in all seriousness, are any others and in particular the gunslingers out there, getting hammered by these wild swings at EOD with little no reason. It's like a fricking shell game out there. You gotta figure out what a fricking computer is going to do at any given moment.

I keep telling myself... "wait until the f-king end of the day" before making a move.

No wonder guys don't want to be swing and position trader like I am doing. Used to be you could hold a position overnight. Nowadays, since I decided to do some trading in June, it's like an insane asylum out there. I haven't even looked at the markets in 5 1/2 years, after many years of trading back into the 80s; and since June what I have seen is often inexplicable.

However, like I said, this does create opportunities... but it also places anyone with open positions overnight or even intra-day in jeopardy, and harms way.

When did it become this insane?? Who likes these markets?

 

[iceman1]

Quote from mikeenday:

also I would suggest only trade one direction for certain time period, stick to it , but with stop loss, of course.

That's not bad advice. I keep hedging and cutting into profits. Better to take a directional play and stop out if it doesn't work.

What is with all these gap openings every day!! Is that the way it's been the last few years. crazy.