I gotta tell you - these markets are too insane for me

d08 · Nov 18, 2011

Quote from adamm2:

You really think that getting on the right side of market direction has anything to do with smarts? ..................

Let me repeat, you will never, ever, ever, ever, never, ever be able to predict the direction of anything 100% of the time. Therefore, risk managment is the most important part of trading. Even if you say you are trading directionless, this is meaningless because you still need the price to go in your bet direction to make money, PERIOD!

How about 60% of the time?

iceman1 · Nov 18, 2011

Quote from adamm2:

You really think that getting on the right side of market direction has anything to do with smarts? ..................

Let me repeat, you will never, ever, ever, ever, never, ever be able to predict the direction of anything 100% of the time. Therefore, risk managment is the most important part of trading. Even if you say you are trading directionless, this is meaningless because you still need the price to go in your bet direction to make money, PERIOD!

then why did you post this:

adamm2
Registered: Dec 2009
Posts: 279
11-18-11 03:11 PM

You are long spy options... I don't think the market's going to go up .

that isn't a prediction??!!

logic_man · Nov 18, 2011

Quote from iceman1:

wow, i guess my view should be that these crazy moves are opportunities. My inclination is to reduce risk, by spreading and hedging. Every fricking time I do that it seems that I reduce the impact of a move (meaning profits get cut short).

Today I scale in to OIH Dec 135p thinking I may have to wait a few weeks to cash in; so I spread against 124p. AFTER ALL oil is making new interim highs. So who the f-ck would figure we get a sell off. OF course I am glad we did.

But in all seriousness, are any others and in particular the gunslingers out there, getting hammered by these wild swings at EOD with little no reason. It's like a fricking shell game out there. You gotta figure out what a fricking computer is going to do at any given moment.

I keep telling myself... "wait until the f-king end of the day" before making a move.

No wonder guys don't want to be swing and position trader like I am doing. Used to be you could hold a position overnight. Nowadays, since I decided to do some trading in June, it's like an insane asylum out there. I haven't even looked at the markets in 5 1/2 years, after many years of trading back into the 80s; and since June what I have seen is often inexplicable.

However, like I said, this does create opportunities... but it also places anyone with open positions overnight or even intra-day in jeopardy, and harms way.

When did it become this insane?? Who likes these markets?

As of now, I only trade the ES and the most interesting thing about the past few weeks for me has been that I'm basically not getting any trade signals at all. Which is fine by me, since there's been hardly any follow-through on the ES anyway. So, the design of my system is proving itself by keeping me out of a fairly crappy market for my type of trading.

Maybe think about the type of market you don't want to trade in and build in features to your strategy that will keep you out of that type of market.

logic_man · Nov 18, 2011

Quote from d08:

How about 60% of the time?

Of course it's possible to be directionally-correct 60% of the time. If you really want to kick ass, though, you need to have your winners be 2X the size of your losers, too. 60% correct with winners much smaller than losers is just a fancy way of losing money while being "right".

Zr1Trader · Nov 18, 2011

High volatility is good if your using the right strategy to grab it. In that effort CL has always had great intra-day volatility .

d08 · Nov 19, 2011

Quote from logic_man:

Of course it's possible to be directionally-correct 60% of the time. If you really want to kick ass, though, you need to have your winners be 2X the size of your losers, too. 60% correct with winners much smaller than losers is just a fancy way of losing money while being "right".

Well, since we didn't specify winner and loser size, I assumed it to be equal.

Butterball · Nov 19, 2011

Not getting hammered worse today than in other difficult periods.

I've been smacked around in August/September 1998. December 1999. Sept 2002. April 2004. August 2006. July 2007. October 2008. August 2010. Probably forgot a few.

There's always violent times for any trader. Question is if you're prepared to handle the rough waters. There's calm sea after many storms, if you can make it there.

themickey · Nov 19, 2011

Quote from logic_man:

Of course it's possible to be directionally-correct 60% of the time. If you really want to kick ass, though, you need to have your winners be 2X the size of your losers, too. 60% correct with winners much smaller than losers is just a fancy way of losing money while being "right".

Yes, I have back tested some systems on Amibroker and my tests have indicated a 30% win rate is all that is required to make a healthy profit.

Wide Tailz · Nov 19, 2011

Quote from iceman1:

wow,

When did it become this insane?? Who likes these markets?

Swing the bat. Do you want to bunt or knock one out of the park?

There are methodz...........

mfbreakout · Nov 19, 2011

Quote from iceman1:

wow, i guess my view should be that these crazy moves are opportunities. My inclination is to reduce risk, by spreading and hedging. Every fricking time I do that it seems that I reduce the impact of a move (meaning profits get cut short).

Today I scale in to OIH Dec 135p thinking I may have to wait a few weeks to cash in; so I spread against 124p. AFTER ALL oil is making new interim highs. So who the f-ck would figure we get a sell off. OF course I am glad we did.

But in all seriousness, are any others and in particular the gunslingers out there, getting hammered by these wild swings at EOD with little no reason. It's like a fricking shell game out there. You gotta figure out what a fricking computer is going to do at any given moment.

I keep telling myself... "wait until the f-king end of the day" before making a move.

No wonder guys don't want to be swing and position trader like I am doing. Used to be you could hold a position overnight. Nowadays, since I decided to do some trading in June, it's like an insane asylum out there. I haven't even looked at the markets in 5 1/2 years, after many years of trading back into the 80s; and since June what I have seen is often inexplicable.

However, like I said, this does create opportunities... but it also places anyone with open positions overnight or even intra-day in jeopardy, and harms way.

When did it become this insane?? Who likes these markets?

Oil goes from $75 to $103 , making new highs. So it's not supposed to pull back and consolidate some up moves? I am sorry but to use word "Fu---ing" in every other sentence to describe market action says it all.

Like Maverick74 says, markets are not supposed to go straight up or straight down. There are plenty of dividend paying stocks with steady earnings/cash flow which will give 10-12% a year total return if one wants to avoid whipsaw moves in OIH, E-mini, etc..