I Got this one wrong guys.....

hafez50 said:
I 100% agree . But i'm starting to see traffic pick up big the last week.Things are somewhat crowded were i live . But yes things will take 5 months to flow threw for crap to really sink in. The new norm could be 8-10% unemployment . The wildcard for stocks is does some of the $6 trillion making zero in money mkt's come back in the mkt ?Does the Fed buy stocks if the mkt goes back near lows? Were traders and it doesn't really matter
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Ahhh
True that it doesn't matter to us
 
hafez50 said:
Something's dancing every damm day . What i try to give back to trading is to teach people concepts, principals and rules to live by. If i posted all my trades and show i have 90% accuracy what good does it do you? I know i would get a lot of pats on the back and some attention. Rule #1 is the only thing you control is your loses . If you control your loses you should succeed in time . Controlling your loses allows you to stay in the game and eventually hit the big winner. When you let the losers run not only does it mess your head up but it takes you out of the game for the time the opportunity arrives. This is nothing but a game of probability's .
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The name of the game is to be in the game
 
KCalhoun said:
Good points. In my gut I'm completely confident that the biggest trading opportunity of our lives is to short the fuck out of this market once it breaks down out of this channel.

I made the only top call in my life here on January 24th, I was right, though a month early. Ive been bearish wrong this last 6 weeks, but ultimately I strongly honestly believe we're about to see the biggest crash in history.

Consumer spending has been the demand catalyst, last week's retail sales big miss shows weak demand.

My biggest regret in my trading life will be not shorting massive size by buying inverses during the upcoming crash. I'm transferring a lot of money to my accounts next week.

China conflict good for SOXS SQQQ, I'm also trading TVIX SRTY FAZ SPXS SDOW
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Ken timing is everything in shorting and more so in 3x leveraged short etf's. And example is sqqq. On Feb 26 the naz closed about the same price as it did friday . Sqqq on Feb 26th closed at $20 or so . On Friday Sqqq closed at $10.80. So if you held sqqq for the last 2 1/2 months your down an amazing 50% and the naz is the same price . You need a 100% gain to just break even . So with these as you well know you can be right on direction at some pt and wrong on timing and you still can lose big if you hold them So if you load the 3x's as you say you want to and we don't crash till oct and go sideways you'll need a crash to break even. Historically these have been terrible bottom fishing instruments due to the massive erosion in them . These are nothing but options in reality and timing is everything . I'm a 60% guy . You can have the first 20% and last 20% of the gain and give me the middle 60% . How many times have you had a can't lose trade only it being a disaster? If your were shorting straight up indexes with no erosion i'd say if you have the money and time go for it but YOUR NOT .
 
hafez50 said:
Ken timing is everything in shorting and more so in 3x leveraged short etf's. And example is sqqq. On Feb 26 the naz closed about the same price as it did friday . Sqqq on Feb 26th closed at $20 or so . On Friday Sqqq closed at $10.80. So if you held sqqq for the last 2 1/2 months your down an amazing 50% and the naz is the same price . You need a 100% gain to just break even . So with these as you well know you can be right on direction at some pt and wrong on timing and you still can lose big if you hold them So if you load the 3x's as you say you want to and we don't crash till oct and go sideways you'll need a crash to break even. Historically these have been terrible bottom fishing instruments due to the massive erosion in them . These are nothing but options in reality and timing is everything . I'm a 60% guy . You can have the first 20% and last 20% of the gain and give me the middle 60% . How many times have you had a can't lose trade only it being a disaster? If your were shorting straight up indexes with no erosion i'd say if you have the money and time go for it but YOUR NOT .
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You're exactly right-- I learned that the hard way with VXX years ago, these are all day trading or 2-3 day round trip instruments due to contango/decay.

Thanks for the nudge re not to overtrade during consolidation and to take profits early, it helped me last week. Having said that, the biggest point gain I got in my life was buying TVIX near 137 last fall and selling at 940 on it's big breakout.

Goal is to combine scaling with tight partial stops. I remember successfully daytrading VXX on the day of the flash crash years ago, it's buy the dip sell the rip.... still a thrill
 
Max E. said:
It's going to be years before the economy hits new highs, people who think the economy will quickly recover from this are deluding themselves, it's not like we can just flip the switch and turn everything on again.... the e tire restarsunt industry Is dead... there's talk about making airlines only book at half capacity which means every single flight is a loss, like I cant see how the economy recovers from this..... entire sectors are being wiped out......

There is a huge disconnect right now between the economy and the stock market....I guess I was wrong being overly bearish on the market.... but I sure as hell dont want to be long right now...

In my opinion we are in a far worse position than 2008 economically and the market is only twenty percent off the highs it doesnt make any sense to me....

Are investors this fucking dumb or does the fed have that much power? Time will tell.
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Yes, the FED has that much power.

Your analysis is entirely correct. But when central banks monetize losses and debauch the currency to offset a collapse, stocks go up. Zimbabwe, Argentina, Venezuela, Wiemar. All extreme examples. In each case, productive capacity was bombed out/shutdown/expropriated/non-existent. But stocks still went up. Hard assets go up during periods of money printing. Holding restaurants/airlines/recreation/resorts/casinos are a bad idea. But tech/clothing/food/cars/miners/PM's/bitcoin still good.

USA is opening back up. Trump is in power. Yellen was removed. Powell is a dove.

Remember the bottom of 2009? When the FED stepped in. The Great Depression was admittedly created and exacerbated by the FED (withheld gold stockpiles from commercial banks, so national money supply was throttled). We'll never have a deflationary event like that again, unless they signal it. There is zero evidence to suggest the Powers That Be are signaling a deflationary event. Quite the opposite. My 2 cents. Look at oil.
 
hafez50 said:
Ken timing is everything in shorting and more so in 3x leveraged short etf's. And example is sqqq. On Feb 26 the naz closed about the same price as it did friday . Sqqq on Feb 26th closed at $20 or so . On Friday Sqqq closed at $10.80. So if you held sqqq for the last 2 1/2 months your down an amazing 50% and the naz is the same price . You need a 100% gain to just break even . So with these as you well know you can be right on direction at some pt and wrong on timing and you still can lose big if you hold them So if you load the 3x's as you say you want to and we don't crash till oct and go sideways you'll need a crash to break even. Historically these have been terrible bottom fishing instruments due to the massive erosion in them . These are nothing but options in reality and timing is everything . I'm a 60% guy . You can have the first 20% and last 20% of the gain and give me the middle 60% . How many times have you had a can't lose trade only it being a disaster? If your were shorting straight up indexes with no erosion i'd say if you have the money and time go for it but YOUR NOT .
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What you described is too familiar. More often than I care to admit, I was right on the underlying direction, magnitude and even timing yet my calls/puts lost money. :banghead:

May I ask why SQQQ doesn't track 3X inverse QQQ? There are no implied volatility vs HV or time decay in SQQQ?
 
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