I Got this one wrong guys.....

hafez50 said:
Bingo i think the last 3 months proved again the economy and stock mkt are completely different . Think about the millions of people that have been stuck at home day trading . There all going long on dips . Think about the record $5 trillion in money funds . Think about the Fed buying everything .They will stop at nothing to keep asset prices form crashing. Understand when any of the millions of traders buy something we have zero intention of holding it . Its a short term transaction no different than flipping a car or any other item . We could care less if its going BK as long as we think we can trade it for a couple of $'s knowing we'll hold it for only min's,hr's or days we'll buy it . Thats what got me decades ago away for the thought process of " My god the economy is crashing stocks will crash". Buy low and sell high has always been the mantra . Week after week 3-7 million more unemployed the last 6 weeks . Almost every Thursday when released the mkt rose. People believe in the Fed and until that bond is broken the mkt will never crash and stay down . Something i learned a long long long time ago. Going long is like hitting the side of a barn if you have time were shorting is like threading a needle . A short can only fall 100% and a Long can run to infinity . That illustrates how stacked the deck is against shorts over time.That said theres still great opps to short for a 1-2 day period butas you said you must be cautious. I advise 99% of the avg person on the street never to short . If your bearish don't trade and wait for long trades .
More...

It's going to be years before the economy hits new highs, people who think the economy will quickly recover from this are deluding themselves, it's not like we can just flip the switch and turn everything on again.... the e tire restarsunt industry Is dead... there's talk about making airlines only book at half capacity which means every single flight is a loss, like I cant see how the economy recovers from this..... entire sectors are being wiped out......

There is a huge disconnect right now between the economy and the stock market....I guess I was wrong being overly bearish on the market.... but I sure as hell dont want to be long right now...

In my opinion we are in a far worse position than 2008 economically and the market is only twenty percent off the highs it doesnt make any sense to me....

Are investors this fucking dumb or does the fed have that much power? Time will tell.
 
Last edited:
Max E. said:
It's going to be years before the economy hits new highs, people who think the economy will quickly recover from this are deluding themselves, it's not like we can just flip the switch and turn everything on again.... the e tire restarsunt industry Is dead... there's talk about making airlines only book at half capacity which means every single flight is a loss, like I cant see how the economy recovers from this..... entire sectors are being wiped out......

There is a huge disconnect right now between the economy and the stock market....I guess I was wrong being overly bearish on the market.... but I sure as hell dont want to be long right now...

In my opinion we are in a far worse position than 2008 economically and the market is only twenty percent off the highs it doesnt make any sense to me....

Are investors this fucking dumb or does the fed have that much power? Time will tell.
More...


I 100% agree . But i'm starting to see traffic pick up big the last week.Things are somewhat crowded were i live . But yes things will take 5 months to flow threw for crap to really sink in. The new norm could be 8-10% unemployment . The wildcard for stocks is does some of the $6 trillion making zero in money mkt's come back in the mkt ?Does the Fed buy stocks if the mkt goes back near lows? Were traders and it doesn't really matter
 
if index arbitrage or whatever robot trading strategies can (and have) lead the markets in the past... then ...where are we now? Markets have already shrugged it off? It looks certain that's the correct case to be focused on if using things external to the economy such as stock indexes, to determine the direction of the economy. Also fits the farmers almanac seasonal political cycle of a HUGE election year rally .. regardless of who's winning any political nonsense. It just is, (sometimes), the fact, (or not) and we or at least I must get back to working on more tangible, pertinent events, within my own circumstances, instead of thinking about these distractions.

but I hope I have an opportunity to return soon, because these discussions help clarify possible market directions.
 
Last edited:
hafez50 said:
I 100% agree . But i'm starting to see traffic pick up big the last week.Things are somewhat crowded were i live . But yes things will take 5 months to flow threw for crap to really sink in. The new norm could be 8-10% unemployment . The wildcard for stocks is does some of the $6 trillion making zero in money mkt's come back in the mkt ?Does the Fed buy stocks if the mkt goes back near lows? Were traders and it doesn't really matter
More...

Good points. In my gut I'm completely confident that the biggest trading opportunity of our lives is to short the fuck out of this market once it breaks down out of this channel.

I made the only top call in my life here on January 24th, I was right, though a month early. Ive been bearish wrong this last 6 weeks, but ultimately I strongly honestly believe we're about to see the biggest crash in history.

Consumer spending has been the demand catalyst, last week's retail sales big miss shows weak demand.

My biggest regret in my trading life will be not shorting massive size by buying inverses during the upcoming crash. I'm transferring a lot of money to my accounts next week.

China conflict good for SOXS SQQQ, I'm also trading TVIX SRTY FAZ SPXS SDOW
 
KCalhoun said:
...

My biggest regret in my trading life will be not shorting massive size by buying inverses during the upcoming crash. I'm transferring a lot of money to my accounts next week...
More...

The upcoming crash? Didn't we just have one, to the tune of 35ish%? Good lord, what is next?
 
KCalhoun said:
Good points. In my gut I'm completely confident that the biggest trading opportunity of our lives is to short the fuck out of this market once it breaks down out of this channel.

My biggest regret in my trading life will be not shorting massive size by buying inverses during the upcoming crash.
More...
Are you going to do it this time, trade massive size? We will be rooting for you.

Me, I don't dare deviate from Kelly.
 
Overnight said:
The upcoming crash? Didn't we just have one, to the tune of 35ish%? Good lord, what is next?
More...

antibody strength increases from deep space (unknown viruses)
as man and machine merge to become future civilizations (on distant stars).

profile001.png
 
dratsum said:
antibody strength increases from deep space (unknown viruses)
as man and machine merge to become future civilizations (on distant stars)...
More...

Oh, we have the cure already. But someone over there has an issue with flashing lights, and missed it.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top