I found the Holy Grail

OddTrader · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from indahook:

Geez your killing me!

Provided his system is a robust one (as he wishes)!!!

electron · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from Breakout:

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10 to 15 minutes after the opening 95 percent of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real."
Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation...pg.231

BS, nothing works 95% of time, if it did everyone would be doing it and so it would stop working faster than it started. Today's example does not prove anything, anyway. Show me that this indeed worked 95% of the time the past 12 months and I may start believing you.

Breakout · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from electron:

BS, nothing works 95% of time, if it did everyone would be doing it and so it would stop working faster than it started. Today's example does not prove anything, anyway. Show me that this indeed worked 95% of the time the past 12 months and I may start believing you.

I'm not asking you to believe me, and I don't care if you believe me. I gave a quote from one of the most respected traders of our time and posted a screenshot of how it worked nicely today.

You can take it or leave it...

ArchAngel · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from oddiduro:
Okay, but the fact remains that each trade you make has a probability of 33.3%. You don't know FOR SURE that the market is going to go up or down when you place your trade.

Having three possible outcomes to some event like a trade (win, loss, breakeven) does NOT mean that there is a 33.3% probability for one of them. Even if your not "sure" what the outcome will be, it's not necessarily a random outcome.

If I pick up an apple and then let go of it, there are several things that COULD happen - it could fall, it could shoot into space, it could hover in place, it could explode, etc. If I list 10 possible outcomes, it doesn't mean that having the apple fall to the ground only has a 10% chance of happening.

Hungry4Knowledg · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from oddiduro:
if you are on the right time frame( thanks Jack)

I don't understand exactly what you're saying. Does Jack = Jack Hershey? What did he say about time frames?

traderkay · Oct 30, 2003

hmm wasnt Muurey Math holy grail? I thought you were rocking the world with it.

SicilianTM · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from oddiduro:

The market has 3 components, not two. Are you sure taking the opposite sides of my trades would give you a 67% win rate?

No, it would give you a 33% win rate as well.

Are you claiming that since there are three possible outcomes to a trade (win, loss, breakeven), you will automatically have a 33% win rate?

Why not play lotto? You have a better chance, you can only win or lose.

traderkay · Oct 30, 2003

COME ON GUYS, LETS BE SERIOUS. ANYONE CAN COME HERE WITH ANY PIECE OF GARBAGE STATEMENT AND HAVE YOU GUYS IMMEDIATELY JUMP ON IT LIKE ON A PILE OF MANURE. LET THIS GUY ODDIDURE PUT OUT THE TEST RESULTS, SOME CONCRETE EVIDENCE ON THE TABLE. BEFORE HE DOES THAT WHY NOT IGNORE HIS STATEMENT? TREAT THIS IN A SCIENTIFIC WAY? SOMEONE PUTS OUT A STATEMENT LIKE THAT WITHOUT RESEARCH AND HE WILL GET LAUGHED OUT OF THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY.

dbphoenix · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from traderkay:

COME ON GUYS, LETS BE SERIOUS. ANYONE CAN COME HERE WITH ANY PIECE OF GARBAGE STATEMENT AND HAVE YOU GUYS IMMEDIATELY JUMP ON IT LIKE ON A PILE OF MANURE. LET THIS GUY ODDIDURE PUT OUT THE TEST RESULTS, SOME CONCRETE EVIDENCE ON THE TABLE. BEFORE HE DOES THAT WHY NOT IGNORE HIS STATEMENT? TREAT THIS IN A SCIENTIFIC WAY? SOMEONE PUTS OUT A STATEMENT LIKE THAT WITHOUT RESEARCH AND HE WILL GET LAUGHED OUT OF THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY.

From the initial post:

"Criticism of this statement is strongly encouraged"

traderkay · Oct 30, 2003

In other words, Oddi, lay out the proof or go away