I found the Holy Grail

Quote from Thunderdog:

Sorry, but that is arithmetically incorrect. A 2-to-1 win/loss ratio will not make money if you are correct only 33% of the time. If this is not obvious, consider a simple example. You lose $1 on each of the first 2 trades and make $2 on the third trade. This is the scenario under which you propose to make money. However, you did not even break even after accounting for slippage and commission.
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Actually, it's a little worse than this unless he'd be increasing the size of his bet after the two losses.
 
even if you employed a minimum 2-1 win/loss ratio wouldn't you end up with a P+L that looked something like this...

100 trades 100 share lots 2 point per winner 1 point per loser

33 winners X 2 points = $6600

67 losers x 1 point = $6700
--------

-100


Obviously no comm factored in
 
Quote from oddiduro:

It is that the markets are random. Random defined as a trade having a probability of success of 33%.

That means that any method you use will work, IF YOU USE IT CONSISTENTLY, DAY IN AND DAY OUT.

I tested the indicators in the TradeStation platform and turned them into strategies. What I found was that any indicator or price level method will work to make money, if you are on the right time frame( thanks Jack) , and if your stops allow enough room to let the trade develop. If your stops are too tight, commissions will destroy the method, no matter what that method is.( This is, of course, assuming that everyone here knows what a change in trend is, and not to hold a long position in a falling market)

Criticism of this statement is strongly encouraged.

Regards
oddi
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===========================
Some could disagree
with random defined as 33% probability of trade sucess:D .

33% could be exceedingly profitable.


:cool:
FRED may not be so profitable in a polar bear trend.
FRED may trend on up in an uptrend but i saw a caged bear on video draw plenty of red human blood as measured by ''any indicator''.

Good points including word ''WORK''.!!!

===
Love learning
-Solomon trader king,part time gold miner king.
 
Quote from mrmarket:

Of my last 50 trades, 45 have been winners. That's 90%. I don't know where you get 33% from:

Closed positions:

STOCK DATE IN DATE OUT PAID SOLD GAIN ANN GAIN
DHOM 1/8/2002 1/30/2002 15.30 17.75 16% 266%
GNWR 1/3/2002 4/9/2002 21.38 24.80 16% 61%
SAH 1/31/2002 4/9/2002 28.05 32.49 16% 85%
ANH 1/10/2002 4/22/2002 9.73 11.30 16% 58%
GAN 4/9/2002 5/1/2002 56.20 65.09 16% 262%
RYL 4/10/2002 5/3/2002 100.35 116.17 16% 250%
JOSB 5/8/2002 5/17/2002 20.58 24.11 17% 696%
MHK 2/20/2002 5/20/2002 60.00 69.66 16% 66%
TENT 5/14/2002 5/21/2002 13.67 15.88 16% 843%
HAMP 6/18/2002 7/9/2002 21.89 25.35 16% 275%
RATE 1/9/2003 1/13/2003 4.30 5.14 20% 1783%
LCI 1/24/2003 2/6/2003 20.00 23.40 17% 477%
ODFL 1/3/2003 4/3/2003 29.05 33.77 16% 66%
AVD 8/19/2002 4/14/2003 15.07 17.58 17% 26%
QSII 2/25/2003 5/6/2003 26.14 32.10 23% 119%
JFBC 1/2/2003 5/21/2003 50.90 59.46 17% 44%
LEND 5/19/2003 5/27/2003 13.75 16.47 20% 903%
PORT 2/7/2003 6/2/2003 46.85 53.67 15% 46%
NFI 5/27/2003 6/5/2003 51.45 59.45 16% 631%
DRL 4/7/2003 6/6/2003 37.70 44.02 17% 102%
HITK 5/7/2003 6/16/2003 37.16 45.60 23% 207%
OHB 5/21/2002 6/17/2003 9.92 12.01 21% 20%
FBC 6/6/2003 6/26/2003 20.85 24.24 16% 297%
MBT 5/2/2003 6/26/2003 48.50 57.04 18% 117%
VNBC 4/12/2003 6/30/2003 18.89 21.96 16% 75%
SSYS 6/19/2003 7/7/2003 33.35 38.90 17% 337%
ACMR 4/22/2002 7/14/2003 22.01 25.46 16% 13%
UTSI 7/3/2003 7/16/2003 36.28 41.95 16% 439%
FCFS 7/8/2003 7/21/2003 16.30 18.84 16% 438%
FRED 5/2/2002 8/1/2003 26.23 30.29 15% 12%
SFCC 7/30/2003 9/2/2003 26.01 31.00 19% 206%
ESI 8/7/2003 9/12/2003 39.59 46.38 17% 174%
MDC 7/10/2002 10/1/2003 46.59 54.25 16% 13%
COH 6/9/2003 10/14/2003 25.75 30.21 17% 50%
ARO 10/3/2003 10/14/2003 28.90 33.62 16% 542%
NARA 7/25/2003 10/16/2003 18.91 21.94 16% 70%
DKS 7/29/2003 10/29/2003 39.99 47.21 18% 72%
WRLD 6/3/2003 10/29/2003 14.43 18.63 29% 72%
WLS 10/16/2003 10/29/2003 54.10 62.76 16% 449%
GRMN 5/23/2003 10/29/2003 45.91 53.00 15% 35%


OPen Positions:
STOCK DATE IN PAID NOW GAIN TARGET
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 19.07 -23.2% 28.9
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 34.45 -0.8% 40.2
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 19.25 -10.5% 24.9
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.21 -13.7% 12.4
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 43.13 5.2% 47.6
HELE 9/2/2003 24.13 20.61 -14.6% 27.9
PRX 9/18/2003 72.40 73.55 1.6% 83.7
FINL 9/29/2003 27.13 30.16 11.2% 31.4
CBK 10/20/2003 29.38 29.89 1.7% 33.9
JBSS 10/24/2003 28.37 32.30 13.9% 32.9
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90% is achieveable with unlimited drawndown. I think that is what you are doing, mrmarket.

If you used a simple stochastics crossover method with 100k and 1 contract, with no stops, your win rate will be very high. What the effiecency of your strategy?
 
Quote from dbphoenix:



I love reading stuff like this. Making a living becomes so much easier when I know that there are people out there who approach the market in this way.

(thanks Jack)

Yes, indeed.
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db, is making a living at the market really that hard for you??
 
Quote from Thunderdog:




Sorry, but that is arithmetically incorrect. A 2-to-1 win/loss ratio will not make money if you are correct only 33% of the time. If this is not obvious, consider a simple example. You lose $1 on each of the first 2 trades and make $2 on the third trade. This is the basic scenario under which you propose to make money. However, you did not even break even after accounting for slippage and commission.
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If I only talked about up or down, that would be 50%. You are missing a component.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

in addition, odd. please provide me with each of your trades, i will take the opposite side and by default have a 67% win ratio.

:p :D :p
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The market has 3 components, not two. Are you sure taking the opposite sides of my trades would give you a 67% win rate?

No, it would give you a 33% win rate as well.
 
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