I found the Holy Grail

Quote from oddiduro:

It is that the markets are random. Random defined as a trade having a probability of success of 33%.
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Personally, I don't believe the markets are random. Why?...because the markets are made by people and people are predictable.

I don't believe every trade has a 33% chance of being successful. Here's a quote from Trader Vic on an observation he made concerning the S&P open.

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10 to 15 minutes after the opening 95 percent of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real."
Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation...pg.231
 
Quote from murray t turtle:


===========================
Some could disagree
with random defined as 33% probability of trade sucess:D .

33% could be exceedingly profitable.


:cool:
FRED may not be so profitable in a polar bear trend.
FRED may trend on up in an uptrend but i saw a caged bear on video draw plenty of red human blood as measured by ''any indicator''.

Good points including word ''WORK''.!!!

===
Love learning
-Solomon trader king,part time gold miner king.
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Work is an important piece of this puzzle, murrayT.:)
 
Quote from Breakout:



Personally, I don't believe the markets are random. Why?...because the markets are made by people and people are predictable.

I don't believe every trade has a 33% chance of being successful. Here's a quote from Trader Vic on an observation he made concerning the S&P open.

"If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10 to 15 minutes after the opening 95 percent of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real."
Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation...pg.231
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Which market is he refering to?
 
Quote from indahook:

even if you employed a minimum 2-1 win/loss ratio wouldn't you end up with a P+L that looked something like this...

100 trades 100 share lots 2 point per winner 1 point per loser

33 winners X 2 points = $6600

67 losers x 1 point = $6700
--------

-100


Obviously no comm factored in
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On the contrary:

33x0.5x100=1650
67x1x100=6700
------------------------
Profit = +5050

Not bad, not bad at all! :confused: :mad: :D
 
Quote from OddTrader:



On the contrary:

33x0.5x100=1650
67x1x100=6700
------------------------
Profit = +5050

Not bad, not bad at all! :confused: :mad: :D
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if he is wrong 67% of the time how can he be +5050? :confused:
 
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