I am getting my butt handed to me on a daily basis!

[llIHeroic]

Quote from smwbbe:

Hello and welcome to the thread… Since you've indicated that feedback is welcome, I figured I might post some info in a more concise way that contradicts somewhat the information you posted in your attachment.

Hello, thank you for the welcoming, and especially for your feedback. I am very grateful when people take the time to offer me feedback and illuminate my mis-understandings. It greatly accelerates my learning curve.

Allow me to attempt to process the information you've provided me with. I will need to become more familiar with end effects in order to carry out the proper assignment of P1. Reading this thread has introduced a large load of information that is difficult at this time to digest correctly.

I attempted to demonstrate in my hand drawing that points are re-assigned if volume continues to produce certain outcomes, which is what you've stated more correctly as the Repeat function. It is good to receive confirmation that I was on the right track with my first impression of that process.

You have expanded my understanding of P1 assignment. I knew they followed EEs which resulted in Trend Termination, but I did not deduce the connection yet that the goal of testing is to achieve a chain of all False.

I have a basic understanding of failsafes, but cannot yet visualize how BO, T1 looks. I still need to do much studying and overview of the posts, charts, and logs. I understand the definition given for a, b, and c turns, but do not know about Band turns yet.

It looks like I was correct in realizing that Band B should be within the bounds of Band A, and I surmise that exceeding Band A after T1 triggers a new P1 assignment (perhaps this is BO, T1?). Your image has helped me to learn Band C's bounds which I did not know before.

I have a post printed which states that the first P and T in volume cases refer to Peak and Trough as you've stated, and the ending P, T, or F stand for Pass/True or False. This would mean T2P, T2F = Trough 2 Pass, Trough 2 Fail, which I am less familiar with assigning. I still need to study and practice the Volume Test Procedure a lot.

---

Thank you again for your corrections and explanations. I apologize if my response to the high magnitude of information you have provided me with is somewhat disorganized.

I have many of the answers to the things that confuse me printed already, but they just need to be practiced and reviewed. I just wanted to begin participating with peers and attempting to internalize some of the concepts while I continue my review and study of the past topics in this thread.

So, I am grateful for the time you've taken to help me learn even though my knowledge is very low at this early stage. Jack has been kind enough to start teaching his method pertaining to the PV relationship using a 5m and 30m trading fractal view from the beginning since this thread has already advanced so far.

I just recently began the journal, and would be quite appreciative of your assistance there as well since you are very helpful and already possess a detailed understanding of the market system of operation.

Here is the link: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=280654

--

P.S. - Also, here is the missing attachment of the Type C drawing that did not get posted the first time for reference. Note that it was drawn even before Type C Simple so it will still contain the errors that were just discussed.

 

[smwbbe]

Quote from jack hershey:
The three sheets of end effects have elements that occur in volume bands. A band is a high low range. Prior volume element define the bands.

A band is between T1 and P1.

B band is between P2 and T2P.

C band is between T2P and T2F.

We will not use or need bands D and E.

F Band is outside of T2P and P2 and not including parts of band H.

G is a value after a specific test on a specifically defined bar. The test is the n+1 bar test after the first T2F or successive T2F's. The value is between T1 and T2F. The voume bar is named P3F if it occurs.

The H band is outside of P1 and T1 after T2Ps AND T2Fs have occurred. It does not overlap band F. Band F is inside band H always.

Band K is like band C BUT it is not in effect until a triple alternation of T2P and T2F.

A drill in a few days will be to draw the bands on a blank sheet of paper. They begin and end as events in the volume test procedure are completed.

Every time you post about the bands, I get excited because I get a better feel for how they work. I realize that you posted this in the new thread and I didn't want Heroic's progress interrupted about bands when he's doing the first few days of drilling.

I'm having difficulty grasping the nuanced differences between the two highlighted statements above.

If I understand how the bands work generally, band C comes into effect when all volume measurements have been encountered - including T2P and T2F. Fc actually uses T2F as a gauge for measurement. How can band F NOT include parts of band H while being inside band H?

Fa = HVBO - volume “higher” than P1.
Fb = HVBO - volume “higher” than P2.
Fc = LVBO - volume “lower” than T2P.
Fd = LVBO - volume “lower” than T1. (Same thing as EE, Ab, but later on?)

Ha = HVBO - volume “higher” than P1 after T2P and T2F have occurred.
Hb = LVBO - volume “lower” than T1 after T2P and T2F have occurred.

Please help me to further refine my understanding of the bands… Thank you!

 

[xioxxio]

Quote from jack hershey:


On the PP's sheet I have clarified a turn called OB PP4a (the two parts are P1 followed by P2 (after a t1 and P2 have occurred) See bar 55 today (30oct13) [/B]

Hi Jack,

Please could you explain the difference between a PP4a and a PP5b, to me they look like the same thing?

Thanks

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from xioxxio:

Hi Jack,

Please could you explain the difference between a PP4a and a PP5b, to me they look like the same thing?

Thanks

Here is the listof these OB End Effects:

Name / upper level /lower level
PP4 /P1/T1
PP4a /P1 leftmost/ P2
PP4b /P1/T2P

PP5 /P2 / T2P
PP5a /T2P/T2F
PP5b /P2/P1

To do each of the 6, you divide the row into an upper level and a lower level.

Then you go to the volume test procedure. There are three steps to do this.

After the upper level is complete, you do the second part of the OB context work. On the definitions of peaks and troughs there are some "kilkls" and "gates". Quoted things have definitions. Find them in your glossary.

the second part of OB work is defining "Next". Next means next in the peak/trough order of events in a given context.

Also, as you begin, it is possible to not have one of the six, IF a trough is on the upper level.

If you get to the place where you cannot tell an PP4a from a PP5b, look first on the upper level. The second element you wrote (a 1 or a 2) is where you see the initial difference. You are testing and you are considering different T/F contexts

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from smwbbe:

Every time you post about the bands, I get excited because I get a better feel for how they work. I realize that you posted this in the new thread and I didn't want Heroic's progress interrupted about bands when he's doing the first few days of drilling.

I'm having difficulty grasping the nuanced differences between the two highlighted statements above.

If I understand how the bands work generally, band C comes into effect when all volume measurements have been encountered - including T2P and T2F. Fc actually uses T2F as a gauge for measurement. How can band F NOT include parts of band H while being inside band H?

Fa = HVBO - volume “higher” than P1.
Fb = HVBO - volume “higher” than P2.
Fc = LVBO - volume “lower” than T2P.
Fd = LVBO - volume “lower” than T1. (Same thing as EE, Ab, but later on?)

Ha = HVBO - volume “higher” than P1 after T2P and T2F have occurred.
Hb = LVBO - volume “lower” than T1 after T2P and T2F have occurred.

Please help me to further refine my understanding of the bands… Thank you!

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from smwbbe:

Every time you post about the bands, I get excited because I get a better feel for how they work. I realize that you posted this in the new thread and I didn't want Heroic's progress interrupted about bands when he's doing the first few days of drilling.

I'm having difficulty grasping the nuanced differences between the two highlighted statements above.

If I understand how the bands work generally, band C comes into effect when all volume measurements have been encountered - including T2P and T2F. Fc actually uses T2F as a gauge for measurement. How can band F NOT include parts of band H while being inside band H?

Fa = HVBO - volume “higher” than P1.
Fb = HVBO - volume “higher” than P2.
Fc = LVBO - volume “lower” than T2P.
Fd = LVBO - volume “lower” than T1. (Same thing as EE, Ab, but later on?)

Ha = HVBO - volume “higher” than P1 after T2P and T2F have occurred.
Hb = LVBO - volume “lower” than T1 after T2P and T2F have occurred.

Please help me to further refine my understanding of the bands… Thank you!

Bands follow an OOE.

The order is alphabetic.

Specifically, one band is "on" and all others are "off".

I did save some subsettting in the mutually exclusive subsets of the Universe of EE's.

I piled several phenomena into the PP set. The phenomena include triplets, OB's and "betweens".

As you get elements while volume testing, the trend moves forward in an irreversable manner.

Gettting to C band would seem to be the end of the forwarding trip since all volume elements have been "ray'ed".

However, I did introduce a "one time only offer moment". This was the n+1 moment.

BY some deductive reasoning machinations, I was able to "change some deductions" and lay them aside by introducing "safety" as an alternative to risk management.

So I proceeded past the C Band to put in place other regions. F through K resulted.

F band has an "either" notion installed.

H band has a "both" notion installed.

To examine the creation issues of a band system takes months of leafing and noting and copying and reassembling. AND no contradictions can creep into the reasoning.

I turn to the history of the periodic chart often and I also return to my inventive history in organic chemistry. To make continuous fermentation appear required using other sectors of organic chemistry to create gates and kills. Continuously refining bound and unbound precious metals using organic chemistry was a similar challenge. A colleague once said to me after I spoke to him about his understanding of this narrow field: "Only about five people have figured this out".

The Holy Grail of the system of operation of markets is the "mix"of OOE's (process) within the "structure".

By parsing out all the non OOE influences, then the OOE's can be set in place. When all of these are iteratively refined, then the OOE's can be ordered as a way of eliminating noise, flaws and anomalies.

Anyone can do picture puzzles. There is an underlying picture.

To do work with space, shapes and change of shapes, you use RDBMS. You lay out the picture puzzle and turn all pieces face down so no picture shows, then and only then, do you start to work on creating a methodology for "puttting the pieces together".

Vendors create platforms that appeal to those who want to trade. The bar is so very low that any vendor can come up with the glitz to make money. But the platforms have little or no utility.

Finding the pieces, goes a long long way towards figuring out how the pieces go together.

So far I cannot help people be creative and intellectually organized to do work. Instead people invent setups and do bets and do "management" of self created problems like risk and NOT using any money to trade. Luckily for me none of these people can read what I write.

 

[roy37]

Quote from jeredlbb:

I am new to trading, but I am not at the same time. I got my start in hedging for a grain elevator that I owned back in the mid 1990's.

In all I have traded off and on for 20 years. I have had big runs of success and failure. I have consistently traded commodities. Lately only the ES.

Recently I came to a place in my life where I had the opportunity to trade full time. In the past, mostly, I was trading around other things in my life.

My first day to trade as a full time trader was March 27th, 2013. I am down 82% from where I started.

I work 8-15 hours a day 5-7 days a week trying to figure out what my edge may be. I obviously have not found one yet.

My confidence is unshaken. But, maybe that is a bad thing...

My fear is that with all of my work, reading and such that I am still not making forward progress.

I guess I already know that you probably can't give me any concrete answers. And, I guess, I am not really asking for any. Hell, I don't even know what to ask for.

I learn as I go from the mistakes I make; or at least I try to learn. I clearly see all the ways I started wrong. But, am I truly closer to being profitable?

I guess reading some of the posts by Jack Hershey and others I realize how far I have yet to go. I wonder if my early successes have hurt me rather than helped me.

My "system" is a technical one based on price action and volume. No indicators. Well, I use ATR to help place stops. I generally try to find term trends and or play reversals.

I am not looking for sympathy, but I sure don't need more ass kicking...the market has provided me with plenty of that.

Never give up bro, Winners are people who never quit!

 

[xioxxio]

Hi Jack,

Please could you post the updated version of the Modrian Table and takes into account the new EE and further revisions you have introduced. PP4a is not accounted for on the older version.

Thanks

Appreciated

 

[jack hershey]

I received this:


It might be more helpful if you post tomorrow’s chart today, Jack.

In the I am getting my butt handed to me on a daily basis! thread, you outlined several agenda items. Unfortunately, that thread lost momentum before some of the topics were covered. Would consider revisiting that thread and addressing the DOM walls, games, and cascading items?

-river

This is a request to post a chart a daay ahead of time.

This is done as a regular part of our trading room routine
Two steps are requiredfor each pane in the display:

1. At the close of business set up a degapping line vertically and make it bold; heliotrope is a good color.

2. Draw rays extending into the next day for all values that need to be carried forward

3. Before the open set the length of the vertical degapping line to the proper length.

4. Trensfer all in effect values to the new day by moving the past up or down precisely.

One of the TF charts is a muliple day chart. Use this chart to have an accurate active ontainer for the full day. This is the "context" needed to continue on the correct side of the market. As examples please view the 30 minute charts posted for the 9, 10, 13, and 14th

DOM walls

DOM walls appear on the DOM. Any value over 2,000 is a WALL.
Walls determine where trends will reverse. They are 100% reliable.


games

big and smart money play games on the DOM. I have explained the individual games repeatedly over the years. Searching is required to find my descriptions in detail. Others have not as yet explained the cgames in literature or on web sites.

Many people feel that they can manipulate markets. This is fine for them and, in fact, they do not.

the capability to play games depends upon one thing: having the capital to back the margin required to set limit orders. A wall is 2,000 contracts and margin for 2,000 contracts is easily calculated.

In market operations, buying and selling are less active than the activities of playing games.

Different people in different places "team up" to play games. They are "tape readers" as well as "level readers". The statistical equivent of taking derivatives is used to play games. the first derivative and second derivatives are most often used.

The EE's that demonstrate results of gaming best are: PP1, PP1a, PP1b, PP1c and PP1d. where climax runs are created. stagnation is most evident on the EE's which inlclude: PP6, PP6a, and Ab in brief periods of time. Similar but longer periods include: P3F's and the C band pass as well as Ka or Kb.

The A band HVBO series includes four other medium paced climax's (Aa, Ac, Ad, Ae Ag).

creating climax runs or stagnation is done by DOM readers ( big and/or smart money). All games deal with getting to turning points and having profits from some level of BP holding while some BP is used to optimize the transient of the propicious holds with in place unused limit orders.

Naturally the amateur frontrunns smart and big mooney to achieve being pushed.

Today the best examples were between bars 50 to 60 and then from 60 to 65. (5 min). The corresponding 30 min bars hav ftt's to show for this gaming.

the amateur is the one who most profits from the games of big and smart money. the amateur is more agile and not sluggish. Amateur spend zero time gaming. Smart and big money both have to "waste" limit orders (never filled,ever as the price of admission to play as a "team".

Yesterday (1/13/14) took all day to trend while today (1/14/14) took 24 bars to do the same. Gaming fot intense after bar 24 today (1/14/14).


, and cascading

dumb money also causes signifcant price moves. There are many many chicken feed traders. They are CW traders who believe in the Kelly BS and who trade below the neck emotionally (anxiety, fear and anger)

Mistakes by setting targets; mistakes by using stops; and mistakes of trading small accounts are thechief causes of cascading.

Cascading is having limit orders turn into market orders and going to the end of the market order FIFO lines. At this time big and smart money is pulling unused limit orders in "front" of chicken feed traders whose instantly created market orders remain unfilled. Naturally IB step in and close chicken feed accounts (this is know to the chickenfeed trader as "blowing down" or "blowing up"). As avalanche effect is seen as more and more dumb money gets ground up in the switch from limit to unfilled market orders.

Summary

Trading to take the full offer of the system of ooperation of the markets takes advantage of all parties: smart money, big money and hcickenfeed dumb money.

The bullshit of predicting and using propabilities to gamble is found in gaming called gambling. Other bullshitters talk about randomness and chaos and such. This is just incomplete research and ingnorance speaking. Others do the gibberish game which is profound ignorance. And "following" as explained was an "eight year hazardous journey". Eight years of listening to bullshit must have been a nifty experience.

The antidote is bar by bar under the context of certainty.

"anticipation" is the result. The annotations are created before the event reaches the present as the futre come into the presenT.

The walls move to BestBid or BestAsk. Bar by Bar monitoring and analysis using OOE's is simple and CERTAIN. certain means zero risk.

A wall cannot be penetrated as seen by first and scond derivatives. So the trend ends at the wall and a new trend begins.

The context that surrounds walls is an interlocking set of fractals all obeying the OOE's.

 

[jack hershey]

the prior was getting a little long and ET throws away posts typed too long.


To continue.

Lets consider fucked up minds for a moment.

they chime and whine away.

"I have seen walls dissappear one of them says. Walls are bullshit says another.

These airheads speak their personal truth. they have no rules and they have no systems.


Tough shit for them.

hedge funds make 20 % a year and some make 60% a year.

the charts I post do not make 20 or 60% a year. I post the lookup tables for every single element of the system and with consumate precision. All the pieces fit togther and are in a super context all the time.

With a fully complete system of operation of the markets, a person is just to the right of the Present and he has finished anticipating precisely what is flowing from the FUTURE into the PRESENT.

dummies talk about hindsight

Once there was a chat space in ET. Doing calls in anticipation was practiced there. In modern times GTM and Skype are used
Messenger is used on Yahoo.

The mind can be built. It can contain all the pieces of the system.

At some learning point there is enough skill and knowledge for this to happen.

Your eyes see the screens or just the tape. Highlighting on screens is AUTOMATIC.


your mind has the facts in LTM and this ingredient is called inference for good reason.

you sit and look.

unconsciously tto you, your mind summons the facts that relate to your vision from the screen

"you know you know" automatically.

You sit there and know all there is to know all of the time.

Thus the market is like a baby.

You see the candy the baby has.

trading the system of operation is like ..... you know the rest.

See you know you know that I am talking about how easy it is to TAKE CANDY AWAY FROM A BABY.

But ET members have empty brains and minds. Shitheads here crack jokes and create entertinment

They DO NOT KNOW HOW TO TAKE.... YOU KNOW THE REST.

I saw a wall go away ... lol it wasn't a wall, stupid

smart and big money cannot manipulate the interlocking context of fractals.

amateurs "use" the handicaps of smart and big money to make more moner personally with small capital than bi and smart money ever will. Smart aand big money MUST USE LIMIT ORDERS TO PLAY GAMES. this wasted capital never gets to do its own work. It is idle so that other capital of big and smart money can make some money.

anyone can learn to use the four types of trends (A, B, C, D)

anyone can learn to use the three types of turns

anyone can learn to use the ten types of price cases

anyone can learn to use the seven types of volume elements

anyone can learn to use the six orders of events.

anyone can learn to use the RTL and LTL

anyone can learn to use the channels

anyone can learn to use the ftt in a trend

anyone can learn to use the ten sub sets f the EE's.

anyone can learn to join inference with sensing to automatically have perception.

Except for those who sit and just observe; they are learning to define thier concept of gibberish.

BE DO HAVE