how you know Gold is NOT a bubble

Quote from Optional:

Yes but no average investor buys crude oil as a hedge against disaster. That's what you need to own precious metals as a hedge against. A little Tylenol never hurt and most don't have it. When they all have it, then it'll be spec excess.
I agree there's no mass retail mania (yet). But that by definition doesn't automatically shield an asset from a bear market.

The reasoning "Gold is not a bubble yet, so it MUST BY DEFINITION go much higher soon" sounds like a wishful thinking of gold bulls to me.
 
Do I have any inside information? As a grandfather myself, I have been inside a grandmother or two. But no, I am one of those dumb retail traders who buys an ounce on a regular schedule whether it's going up or down. It is notable that higher quality and artistically attractive bullion like the Eagle and the Buffalo are in short supply, as from time-to-time are the more attactive one ounce bars like the Pamp Suisse. But you can buy all the ugly Krugs and Scotia rounds you want.
 
Quote from Optional:

Its not even close to bubble status and its not a speculative asset in non leveraged form.

You are welcome to your opinion, like everyone else.

As gold has very little intrinsic value, and the vast bulk of gold is held for purely speculative purposes, it is by definition speculatively-priced, so it is by definition in a bubble virtually all the time. When Rolex starts making Presidentes out of oil instead of gold, perhaps that will change.

I'm merely pointing out that mass psychology is nowhere near bubble status as some would suggest.

It has hit mass psychology - gold talk is *everywhere* - however it hasn't taken hold of mass psychology like it once did. Which makes it likely to be a soon-to-be-deflated bubble.

Cheers.
 
Quote from makloda:

I agree there's no mass retail mania (yet). But that by definition doesn't sutomatically shield an asset from a bear market.

The reasoning "Gold is not a bubble yet, so it MUST BY DEFINITION go much higher soon" sounds like a wishful thinking of gold bulls to me.

We both know that gold doesn't HAVE to do anything. I'm merely pointing out that mass psychology is nowhere near bubble status as some would suggest. I think gold could go to 14,000 an oz. Like the Dow did. Will it? I dunno. As it is, its still fuckin cheap here adjusted for inflation.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:


As gold has very little intrinsic value, and the vast bulk of gold is held for purely speculative purposes, it is by definition speculatively-priced, so it is by definition in a bubble virtually all the time.

By your definition, fine dining, fine cars, fine rugs, designer clothes, diamonds, luxury hotels, personal chefs, etc... are all bubbles.
 
Quote from Optional:

No one owns it. Its not like tech stocks and 401K's which exposed everyone to equities.

I was at a Stag in Vegas this weekend and there were 30 guys from all over the world in the penthouse. Lawyers, doctors, professionals. Only 2 of us held some physical gold and silver. The rest had none.

NOT a bubble.
Gold is a bubble at ANY price.

Gold is useless (except for electric contacts, and a few rare industrial applications).
 
Quote from crgarcia:

Gold is a bubble at ANY price.

Gold is useless (except for electric contacts, and a few rare industrial applications).

I brought this up many times before and was laughed at.
 
Quote from Optional:

I think gold could go to 14,000 an oz. Like the Dow did. Will it? I dunno. As it is, its still fuckin cheap here adjusted for inflation.
Question: If gold price tracked average inflation on a % basis (measured by a basket of the spot prices all the other popular/tradeable commodities), using data going back to the 1970's, what price should it be today?
 
Quote from promagma:

Question: If gold price tracked average inflation on a % basis (measured by a basket of the spot prices all the other popular/tradeable commodities), using data going back to the 1970's, what price should it be today?


$1123.60
 
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