My rule of thumb is, if grandmothers are 'getting into the business'.....
Do you have any 'inside information' Arthur?
Do you have any 'inside information' Arthur?
I agree there's no mass retail mania (yet). But that by definition doesn't automatically shield an asset from a bear market.Quote from Optional:
Yes but no average investor buys crude oil as a hedge against disaster. That's what you need to own precious metals as a hedge against. A little Tylenol never hurt and most don't have it. When they all have it, then it'll be spec excess.
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Its not even close to bubble status and its not a speculative asset in non leveraged form.
I'm merely pointing out that mass psychology is nowhere near bubble status as some would suggest.
Quote from makloda:
I agree there's no mass retail mania (yet). But that by definition doesn't sutomatically shield an asset from a bear market.
The reasoning "Gold is not a bubble yet, so it MUST BY DEFINITION go much higher soon" sounds like a wishful thinking of gold bulls to me.
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As gold has very little intrinsic value, and the vast bulk of gold is held for purely speculative purposes, it is by definition speculatively-priced, so it is by definition in a bubble virtually all the time.
Gold is a bubble at ANY price.Quote from Optional:
No one owns it. Its not like tech stocks and 401K's which exposed everyone to equities.
I was at a Stag in Vegas this weekend and there were 30 guys from all over the world in the penthouse. Lawyers, doctors, professionals. Only 2 of us held some physical gold and silver. The rest had none.
NOT a bubble.
Question: If gold price tracked average inflation on a % basis (measured by a basket of the spot prices all the other popular/tradeable commodities), using data going back to the 1970's, what price should it be today?Quote from Optional:
I think gold could go to 14,000 an oz. Like the Dow did. Will it? I dunno. As it is, its still fuckin cheap here adjusted for inflation.