How would the Markets react to an Israeli strike on Iran?

according to intelligence reports he is about 2 years away from making a working nuke. And that was the time frame iraq was suppovily making a nuke. So its not out of ordinary for an attack on iranian nuclear facilities. Whether they are done or not done with nukes. There is currently a premptive strike policy.
Quote from toc:

The attack on Iranian nuke facillities is not happening anytime soon because Iranians are much far from accomplishing the bomb and let alone reduce it to a size where they can load it up on missile or plane for delivery. All the threat talk by Iranians is brinkman type political play to drum up the oil prices.
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Its a tought quest for the US admin. There is no military option. And its completely the admins fault. All of the military resources are being used in afghanistan and iraq. And its costing the country already 500 billion. Can you imagine god forbid somehow bush manages to make a war in iran. The cost would be in trillions. I really dont see how the stock market would go up in this scenerio like everybody says. If the US invades iran. And at the same time is in iraq and afghanistan. It would be too costly.

Quote from dgabriel:

This I doubt because the Iranian "leader" is a figurehead placed by the Mullahs.

He is a loose cannon by design.

Iran is playing the nuclear card because the US is right next door and sunni Iraq is a bitter historical enemy. Remember, Iran lost a million men in the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s. That's a big number given thier population of 60 million.

And now France is falling in line. Chirac said if you force us, we will indeed use nukes. That is a message to not just Iran, but rogue actors in the Muslim world, and Islamist militancy.

Iran knows the US won't tolerate it going nuclear. They will leverage the nuclear card to gain security and in the end, negotiate themselves out of it.

If not, the US, not Israel, will take out thier nuclear facitlities. They know this. They know Bush & Co. doesn't fuck around. Not only has this current administration demonstrated a willingness to act unilaterally, it has a leader which speaks fundamentalism. "God has commanded me blah blah blah"
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I doubt the US would allow Israel to attack Iran anymore than they would have allowed them to send troops to Iran. This would simply ignite emotions way too much in the muslim world. I think the likely strategy will be to keep up international pressure on Iran, and hoping to keep the situation contained until things are more stable in Iran and our military can catch it's breath.
 
Quote from Jack Sparrow:

This Ahmadinejad guy is pretty creepy.

He threatens a 'final war' with Iran's enemies; speaks of 'big economic war'

"Today, a big economic war is underway. The political war is obvious to all but there is an economic war that goes on undetected," he said."

http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=10517
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Call me crazy... But I think we were intentionally misled on iraq to prepare "strategically" for a US-Iran confrontation. I mean just look at a map. Iran is now surrounded with us forces.

Looks like this nuke crises had been anticipated to me.

Nick
 
Quote from FatMax:

Iran does not need to build a nuclear bomb that can be delivered via missile. Simply having processed radioactive material available to be distributed to terrorists is enough of a threat to make this situation spiral out of control
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This is why I think this is a "do or die" situation for the US. If they don't do anything about it now, they will die later. An obvious conclusion I think.

Kind of reminds me of the cuban missle crises, the threat then , like today was too great not to act....Hopefully Iran will blink and this can all be avoided... but I doubt it.

Nick
 
Quote from dgabriel:

This I doubt because the Iranian "leader" is a figurehead placed by the Mullahs.

He is a loose cannon by design.

Iran is playing the nuclear card because the US is right next door and sunni Iraq is a bitter historical enemy. Remember, Iran lost a million men in the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s. That's a big number given thier population of 60 million.

And now France is falling in line. Chirac said if you force us, we will indeed use nukes. That is a message to not just Iran, but rogue actors in the Muslim world, and Islamist militancy.

Iran knows the US won't tolerate it going nuclear. They will leverage the nuclear card to gain security and in the end, negotiate themselves out of it.

If not, the US, not Israel, will take out thier nuclear facitlities. They know this. They know Bush & Co. doesn't fuck around. Not only has this current administration demonstrated a willingness to act unilaterally, it has a leader which speaks fundamentalism. "God has commanded me blah blah blah"
More...

Good points...

I couldn't beleive Chirac was talking nuke talk...not like him... :D

Nick
 
Quote from cnms2:

Does anybody have links with our oil consumption breakdown in % (automibiles, etc.), and our oil imports breakdown in % (how much imported, and breakdown per countries)?
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According to 2004 numbers:
71% in transporation.
18% in industrial. More of these numbers at http://advisor.investopedia.com I forget which one it exactly is, but it's there.
Canada is the top exporter of oil to the US(you see why the CAD is kicking the USD's butt)
Saudi Arabia next.
 
I think you're in the quagmire already, so...
Time to start the war machine again, no pain no gain, better now than later when things really get out of control.
$500 billion is a drop in the bucket, it could also unbend the yield curve($500 more billlions tbonds issued.)
 
In order to get a further grasp on what might happen in Iran...one must know more about how Cheney will respond...

In order to know more about how Cheney - Bush might respond...one must understand that both Cheney and Bush are basically big oil company employees...

To get a feel for this...read the following as to what role Cheney played in Indonesia...Mexico...and Iraq before he entered office....Bush is just a cooperative Cheney Oil Co. mouthpiece...

http://www.apfn.org/apfn/bush-cheney.htm

Look is this bad...is this good...look high prices for oil products is good news not bad news for oil companies...Two US states are very happy now...Texas...and Wyoming...because they are making lots of money...

Oil companies are very basic pragmatists...they have one concern...more oil....their product sells ....people buy it in pesos...dollars...pounds...colons...rubies....and the people that buy it are white...black...yellow...good ...bad...pretty...ugly...ethical...not ethical...

Hey is this bad...is this good....hey did you walk or drive to work...
............................................................................

Alternative energy does not have a chance to happen as long as big oil company employees remain in office....

And it does not matter how far up or down the dollar goes...because oil beats walking......
 
Quote from dgabriel:

And now France is falling in line. Chirac said if you force us, we will indeed use nukes. That is a message to not just Iran, but rogue actors in the Muslim world, and Islamist militancy.
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Not to mention all the other states that have been known to sponsor acts of terrorism.
 
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