How would the Markets react to an Israeli strike on Iran?

but why would the market move up?

Quote from andrasnm:

The markets would make a large move most likely up but possibly down in the range of 20-25 sp points at least
5:1 odds on upside IF Israel is involved alone and US stays the fuck out and cannot fuck it up....

....after a large up move it may tank for weeks and puke out 100 sp point to the downside depending on oil prices...

....but it could happen as the exact reverse.... :)
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not to change the subject that much
but how would the markets react more
to bird flu causing hundreds or thousands of deaths worldwide in a short time than this event?

or god forbid an attack on america by our enemies?

ok back to our regularly scheduled programming

:p
 
its bullish, but my idea was an unexpected strike. Like back in 80's when isreal striked iraq nuclear power plants. And what if iran strikes back hard, and isreal just destroys iran oil infrastructure. And it causes a cascade effect where all arabian area is at war.

Quote from andrasnm:

(conventional) WAR IS BULLISH MY FRIEND - ALWAYS BEEN always WILL BE.
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well it depends. If you mean attacked like by terriosts like suicide bombings then I think things like transport stocks would drop like crazy. I think we wouild see a few more airlines go bankrupt. But if there is, I think you would see people acting more like isrealis, and after a couple of quarters go back to normal. If its a nuclear attack, either conventional or dirty, then all gloves are off. There is no market precedent. Im not even sure if the markets would be open. The closests thing is when nyse closed for 2 years during world war. And for bird flu, we have no precedent for a pandemic like that. And all gloves are off. I think if the markets starts collasping, the nyse /nasdaq wouild be closed till the situation clears up.

Quote from SethArb:

not to change the subject that much
but how would the markets react more
to bird flu causing hundreds or thousands of deaths worldwide in a short time than this event?

or god forbid an attack on america by our enemies?

ok back to our regularly scheduled programming

:p
More...
 
When I talked "more sane president comes to Iran, but all would be anti-Israel"

I am talking about the president of Iran, and all Iranian candidates, whether theocratic or secular, would be anti-Israel.
 
Israel would have done it already. But they didn’t, so they won’t. But if they do it tomorrow, the market volatility will run wild in a bad way. Incidentally, when it comes to warfare these days, there seems to be a lot of warning before anything happens. So I expect that if there is any attack on Iran, the world will be warned well in advance, and the markets will have time to factor it all in, in a controlled manner.
 
Quote from Jack Sparrow:

This Ahmadinejad guy is pretty creepy.

He threatens a 'final war' with Iran's enemies; speaks of 'big economic war'

"Today, a big economic war is underway. The political war is obvious to all but there is an economic war that goes on undetected," he said."

http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=10517
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The problem is that Europe needs to get off of Iranian oil (there's enough oil in Iraq for both the U.S. and Europe btw.)

http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=10502
 
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