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How would the Markets react to an Israeli strike on Iran?
- Thread starter mahram
- Start date
Well, Pakistan is 1 Musharraf away from being a much bigger threat, in that respect. I worry more about what happens to him, than what Iran does. Even with Musharraf in power, Pakistan nuclear scientists managed to rub elbows with the Taliban âthe closest thing to an organized Islamist government.Quote from FatMax:
Iran does not need to build a nuclear bomb that can be delivered via missile. Simply having processed radioactive material available to be distributed to terrorists is enough of a threat to make this situation spiral out of control
The good news is that nuclear material is very easy to detect today, thanks to technology inherited from the Cold War. The concern that nuclear material could be smuggled by foot, truck, boat, or whatever, is as old as the Cold War.
Quote from Sam123:
The problem is that Europe needs to get off of Iranian oil (there's enough oil in Iraq for both the U.S. and Europe btw.)
http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=10502
I wonder if the Iraqi reserves are as large as initially thought. A news story on Friday stated that Kuwait's reserves are half of what they officially announced. Kuwait has been producing from oil deposits which are common to Kuwait and Iraq (they sit under both countries). It was one of Saddam's grievances and reasons for invading Kuwait. Just some food for thought.
when israel attacked iraq's nuclear power plants that was really unexpected. The markets during that time had no warning. Thats b/c it involved a relativly small fighter group. when we got warning about persian gulf wars, it involved a military buildup of 100's thousands of men and materials. So that was predicted. But it would fun to know if the market would react before an isreali strike or not. If oil suddenly jumped 25 dollars in 1 minute then that would be a big sign. But lets say if it does happen isreal attacks. Then would equities markets in general be a sell or a buy?
Quote from Sam123:
Israel would have done it already. But they didnât, so they wonât. But if they do it tomorrow, the market volatility will run wild in a bad way. Incidentally, when it comes to warfare these days, there seems to be a lot of warning before anything happens. So I expect that if there is any attack on Iran, the world will be warned well in advance, and the markets will have time to factor it all in, in a controlled manner.
well from my perspective iraqi reserves are a moot point. They arent even producing oil at prewar levels and at sustainable levels. When iraq starts producing again, then we can start talking about iraqi reserves. Right now, the biggest factor for iraq to effect the oil markets or not, if they can sustain production and get back to prewar levels. Then could have a trillion barrels of reserves, but if they cant even get 100K out of iraq safely,effiently, and dependably, then it doesnt matter.
QUOTE]Quote from plugger:
I wonder if the Iraqi reserves are as large as initially thought. A news story on Friday stated that Kuwait's reserves are half of what they officially announced. Kuwait has been producing from oil deposits which are common to Kuwait and Iraq (they sit under both countries). It was one of Saddam's grievances and reasons for invading Kuwait. Just some food for thought. [/QUOTE]
QUOTE]Quote from plugger:
I wonder if the Iraqi reserves are as large as initially thought. A news story on Friday stated that Kuwait's reserves are half of what they officially announced. Kuwait has been producing from oil deposits which are common to Kuwait and Iraq (they sit under both countries). It was one of Saddam's grievances and reasons for invading Kuwait. Just some food for thought. [/QUOTE]
Quote from DrChaos:
I think the likely response would be an Iranian missile attack on Israel's reactor.
In the end, everybody's pissed but a 75% chance nothing catastrophic happens---at least right away.
The processing buildings near the Israeli reactor would likely be destroyed but the containment dome (and the radioactive fuel) would probably not be broken. You need a hard core bunker buster or a tactical nuke to open those.
Scenarios:
1) So, if there's an Israeli attack and mild Iranian response---and no oil facilities are damaged---I think markets make a relief rally.
2) If on the other hand, the Iranians convince the Shiites in Iraq to start attacking the US troops in mass and the US makes a shooting retreat like Saigon 1975----mid term moderate bear market as US power and prestige is seriously damaged for a long time as it was in Vietnam.
3) Second worst case scenario: Iran sends gas for real into Tel-Aviv: their missiles are much better than those pathetic Scuds. Quick sharp large drop, recovery after 6 months if less than 3 nukes used by Israel against military targets only.
4) Worst case scenario: Iran already has nukes, namely those 10 Ukrainian cruise missiles, and uses them. Israel is obliterated, and US prepares for invasion. Russia moves tactical nukes into Iran and signs defense treaty.
Exchanges shut for years.
The longer term problem though is that after an Israeli attack Iran would still be able to make a nuclear weapon in 3-5 years (facilities are too deep to be destroyed without large nukes) and would then be even more likely to use it.
The hope is that a more sane president in Iran comes to power, but after an attack all of them will be totally anti-Israel. Even the moderate educated segment of Iran who hate the theocrats is very much in favor of their nuclear program, and I bet most of them know that it's for bombs eventually.
Iran's idea is to have the capability for a quick switch to making weapons whenever they want.
I.e. they will make all the plans and calculations now, build all the facilities and technology, and just not make one so as to be technically within the bounds of the treaty. And then when people start to complain they'll pull a Kim-Jong Evil and say, "Oh screw that. we lied, we have lots of bombs now."
Iran is poised to fall from within. Once plan is in place we move in. The government falls. Market rallies.
World goes from doom and gloom to a great place to live in a few days.
People who say otherwise watch too much network news.
John
The attack on Iranian nuke facillities is not happening anytime soon because Iranians are much far from accomplishing the bomb and let alone reduce it to a size where they can load it up on missile or plane for delivery. All the threat talk by Iranians is brinkman type political play to drum up the oil prices.
Quote from toc:
The attack on Iranian nuke facilities is not happening anytime soon because Iranians are much far from accomplishing the bomb and let alone reduce it to a size where they can load it up on missile or plane for delivery. All the threat talk by Iranians is brinkman type political play to drum up the oil prices.
All this talk by their leader is to strengthen his position at home and to intimate his enemies inside of the country. He survived an assassination attempt two months ago by the skin of his teeth. Odds are he will not survive the next one.
There is not going to be an attack on faculties. Their leader is going to be taken out and their government will fall.
John
Quote from jficquette:
All this talk by their leader is to strengthen his position at home and to intimate his enemies inside of the country. He survived an assassination attempt two months ago by the skin of his teeth. Odds are he will not survive the next one.
There is not going to be an attack on faculties. Their leader is going to be taken out and their government will fall.
John
This I doubt because the Iranian "leader" is a figurehead placed by the Mullahs.
He is a loose cannon by design.
Iran is playing the nuclear card because the US is right next door and sunni Iraq is a bitter historical enemy. Remember, Iran lost a million men in the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s. That's a big number given thier population of 60 million.
And now France is falling in line. Chirac said if you force us, we will indeed use nukes. That is a message to not just Iran, but rogue actors in the Muslim world, and Islamist militancy.
Iran knows the US won't tolerate it going nuclear. They will leverage the nuclear card to gain security and in the end, negotiate themselves out of it.
If not, the US, not Israel, will take out thier nuclear facitlities. They know this. They know Bush & Co. doesn't fuck around. Not only has this current administration demonstrated a willingness to act unilaterally, it has a leader which speaks fundamentalism. "God has commanded me blah blah blah"