How will YOU determine that we have bottomed?

[SoyUnGanador]

Thanks David's faith! Not sure how to get around it, but I did some googling, and I find stuff like this:

https://www.userwalls.news/n/scrutinizes-swiss-currency-practices-3357891/

and

https://nomisec.com/business/us-scrutinizes-swiss-currency-practices/

But those both seem to indicate the U.S. was not trying to get the Swiss to weaken their currency, but the U.S. was concerned the Swiss were trying to weaken their currency and the U.S. didn't like it! Seems the opposite of what you were saying no?

 

[SoyUnGanador]

Yeah it has to bounce along the bottom and hold for awhile. This is not a single dip, whiplash, buy the dip scenario. Also you will see it when the ES 1000 contract blocks start flying by on the buy. I assume these are players taking consolidated position while their stock block trades get filled, and ride the ES for the bump up.

Whenever the middle class thinks they are millionaires, buying everything and anything, like they will have money forever, is when I go flat or short for a swing.

Or when the OP posts for the 8th time that "this is the bottom". Even a broken clock is correct once or twice a day.

LOL, you got me Bad Badness. But in all fairness, I have absolutely no clue what I am doing... and I know it.

Thanks for your input!!!

Lot of good input in this thread.

 

[wildchild]

When the Fed re-engages with QE. That's the only thing that saved it from tanking further than it did in 2018 after the pause in hikes and start of QE3.

If Overnight thinks it is going to continue to tank, that is a pretty good indication that we are near the bottom.

 

[SoyUnGanador]

If Overnight thinks it is going to continue to tank, that is a pretty good indication that we are near the bottom.

LOL. Overnight is #1 in my book, but he might indeed be the only guy on this forum wrong as much as me haha.

 

[Overnight]

Hello Overnight,

You are a smart man. Nice and simple.

Two questions please.

1. What month and year did the Feds stop QE?

Technically they never did until now, but the interest rate hikes were considered mini QTs.

Check the following list of rate-hike rates, and draw your own conclusions as correlated to how the SP performed during those periods...

Sorry the text is so small, click it to expand it. Note the dates of the up/down moves by the Fed.

2. How will you know when the Feds start QE again?

Thank you

It will be when Powell and his lackeys announce that they will be ending the balance-sheet runoff and pausing hikes.

 

[formikatrading]

When @KCalhoun owns elitetrader.

 

[nitrene]

B. Market anticipates "JPOW will cave and start juicing again"

I get the impression Powell wants to avoid that again. I think he also knows the potential ignominy of being called Arthur Burns 2.0.

Most likely he will have to do it at some point since that's all this economy knows. This is the land of rolling bubbles since they shipped all the industries to Mexico & China.

Frankly after the Treasury & Fed shenanigans of 2008 I lost hope in any real price discovery. They now want to pretend everything is okay -- of course papered over by free money form the government endlessly.

 

[David's faith]

Thanks David's faith! Not sure how to get around it, but I did some googling, and I find stuff like this:

https://www.userwalls.news/n/scrutinizes-swiss-currency-practices-3357891/

and

https://nomisec.com/business/us-scrutinizes-swiss-currency-practices/

But those both seem to indicate the U.S. was not trying to get the Swiss to weaken their currency, but the U.S. was concerned the Swiss were trying to weaken their currency and the U.S. didn't like it! Seems the opposite of what you were saying no?

I read they eased the pressure. Meaning they were okay with more easing.

 

[KCalhoun]

Bounce at midterms, bottom when Biden out.

1st target = March 2020 lows by December.

 

[Hunter2020]

Market will bottom sometime this coming Winter. Can pick it within 5% accuracy if you go by the chart patterns. Ignore subjective stuff like it must be the bottom because everyone else believes market will continue to tank. Just look at the chart, it will tell you within 5% accuracy when to back up the truck...