How will YOU determine that we have bottomed?

SoyUnPerdedor said:
Damn market just can't do a damned thing but go down. How will you make the call as to when its hit bottom and its time to buy buy buy? Its down SO MUCH, but I look at the charts and its only chewed through like the last 2 years of gains, it could go down SO MUCH more LOL.
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Bear market will end either
A. Market "plays-out" typical bear market price pattern... that may take more than another year.

B. Market anticipates "JPOW will cave and start juicing again"
 
Overnight said:
When the Fed re-engages with QE. That's the only thing that saved it from tanking further than it did in 2018 after the pause in hikes and start of QE3.
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Hello Overnight,

You are a smart man. Nice and simple.

Two questions please.

1. What month and year did the Feds stop QE?

2. How will you know when the Feds start QE again?

Thank you
 
Overnight said:
When the Fed re-engages with QE. That's the only thing that saved it from tanking further than it did in 2018 after the pause in hikes and start of QE3.
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What a HUGE mistake that was! Lead to the mess we're currently in.

If JPOW chickens-out again this time, we'll have 10 years or more of double-digit inflation. That will wreck almost everyone.

If he "sticks to his guns" and allows the market to "price-out" excesses, we'll have a strong bear market that lasts 2-years??... and then can proceed with recovery.
 
Scataphagos said:
What a HUGE mistake that was! Lead to the mess we're currently in.

If JPOW chickens-out again this time, we'll have 10 years or more of double-digit inflation. That will wreck almost everyone.

If he "sticks to his guns" and allows the market to "price-out" excesses, we'll have a strong bear market that lasts 2-years??... and then can proceed with recovery.
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I agree. I was believing same as Overnight. But he yet has tools instead of QE he did not previosuly have - to lower interest rates again. He doesen't have to buy. If the FED gives guidance it would potentially be enough, no buying necessary. Inflation elevated is not a problem as long as every currency is having it. That's why they reached out to Switzerland again about the manipulation...
 
David's faith said:
Inflation elevated is not a problem as long as everyone is having it.
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100% Disagree!! Persistent high inflation is a KILLER!!! Not like a "bullet behind the ear", but more like taking the "Covid death shot". (Excluding, of course, those unfortunate to die from the shot right away... :()
 
" Inflation elevated is not a problem as long as every currency is having it. That's why they reached out to Switzerland again about the manipulation..."

David's faith, I think I agree with Scat that your statement about not a problem as long as every currency is doing it is not accurate. But I'm curious about you indicating they reached out to Switzerland about the manipulation - did they really? Who and when? Is there any information I can read on it? I've always thought if Switzerland is the only government in the world not printing massive amounts of money I should open an Oanda account and start dumping all my money in it, going long the Swiss Franc. I can't believe it hasn't appreciated more already...
 
SoyUnPerdedor said:
" Inflation elevated is not a problem as long as every currency is having it. That's why they reached out to Switzerland again about the manipulation..."

David's faith, I think I agree with Scat that your statement about not a problem as long as every currency is doing it is not accurate. But I'm curious about you indicating they reached out to Switzerland about the manipulation - did they really? Who and when? Is there any information I can read on it? I've always thought if Switzerland is the only government in the world not printing massive amounts of money I should open an Oanda account and start dumping all my money in it, going long the Swiss Franc. I can't believe it hasn't appreciated more already...
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Swiss franc is risky because it has still negative rates and secondly it is basically a fundamentally stronger Euro as the SNB owns so much of it and seeks parity. I will come to you back shortly regarding the article. I am curious whose opinion is right, gentlemen.
 
Pekelo said:
When you see double bottoms with RSI divergence.
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Yeah it has to bounce along the bottom and hold for awhile. This is not a single dip, whiplash, buy the dip scenario. Also you will see it when the ES 1000 contract blocks start flying by on the buy. I assume these are players taking consolidated position while their stock block trades get filled, and ride the ES for the bump up.

Whenever the middle class thinks they are millionaires, buying everything and anything, like they will have money forever, is when I go flat or short for a swing.

Or when the OP posts for the 8th time that "this is the bottom". Even a broken clock is correct once or twice a day.
 
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