How was this crash obvious?

ktm said:
I completely agree with your statement. The key difference between my statement and yours is that I wrote "any given day" and you wrote "over time". The market is absolutely not random.

As an example, I feel like "over time"... the market is going to go up. Monday could be down another 2-3%, up 2-3% or flat. I have no idea.

My personal GUESS based on how everything sold off was that one or more large holders of equities was shifting their holdings over the last few days. Thursday morning started out moving up around 1%. With no precipitating event or substantive news, the market quietly turned and sold off in a very orderly fashion from there until the close Friday. When this scenario has happened in the past, sometimes a few days later we hear that some institution moved billions and billions in equity to another asset class. Since they are moving so much, they just slowly and methodically deal it all out there until the transaction is done. Are they finished? I have no idea.
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This is my take as well as we both suggested in a previous similar move in markets. Friday's in particular have often been weak for no particular reason. The drop on Thursday seemed pretty natural given news and profit taking. I also don't pretend to know what Monday will bring but with Cdn earnings season coming soon and Cdn stocks still being relatively cheap there may be opportunities here. My overall premise remains a moderately positive US market by end of year with a lot of choppiness getting there.

Sector rotation has occurred all year. I believe the Cdn Oil stocks are oversold now due to index related selling and weak hands. However, commodity prices can distort things in either direction short term. Earnings coming up now I believe are a strong bullish opportunity in this area still ( should be great numbers, some dividend increases, some share buyback announcements, some positive news on reduction in hedging losses ).

US indexes in general are just a mediocre unpredictable trade in 2022 other then shorting weaker QQQ stocks. If someone is long the right areas, they'll be fine and some trading around the drops even better. I try to buy stocks that even in the worst outcomes will likely be no worse then b/e end of year. There are plenty of those in Canada at the moment.
 
Aj2014 said:
So many people seem to have got short on this drop yesterday and today with utter conviction we'd get a huge down move

I'm wonder what they all saw?

Some caught near the high yesterday and are still holding, and even on twitter I saw a lot of people get short soon after the open saying like 'short here. Expect we could go down over 200 ES points in the coming days' kinda thing

I have no idea how ppl know where we're going? Is it a chart thing? Something else that alerted ppl not only to go short, but to hold for many days?
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I bought my puts a day too soon but I held and am still holding.
Aj2014 said:
So many people seem to have got short on this drop yesterday and today with utter conviction we'd get a huge down move

I'm wonder what they all saw?

Some caught near the high yesterday and are still holding, and even on twitter I saw a lot of people get short soon after the open saying like 'short here. Expect we could go down over 200 ES points in the coming days' kinda thing

I have no idea how ppl know where we're going? Is it a chart thing? Something else that alerted ppl not only to go short, but to hold for many days?
More...


I bought my SPY and DIA puts a day too soon but I held onto them and still have them. Seeing what the market did the two preceeding days; for me it was like a perfect storm was building. China lockdown, Ukraine, supply chain, resurgence of the pandemic and the cherry on top was the Fed speech. I expected a pullback but not as much as we had...glta
 
ktm said:
I completely agree with your statement. The key difference between my statement and yours is that I wrote "any given day" and you wrote "over time". The market is absolutely not random.

As an example, I feel like "over time"... the market is going to go up. Monday could be down another 2-3%, up 2-3% or flat. I have no idea.

My personal GUESS based on how everything sold off was that one or more large holders of equities was shifting their holdings over the last few days. Thursday morning started out moving up around 1%. With no precipitating event or substantive news, the market quietly turned and sold off in a very orderly fashion from there until the close Friday. When this scenario has happened in the past, sometimes a few days later we hear that some institution moved billions and billions in equity to another asset class. Since they are moving so much, they just slowly and methodically deal it all out there until the transaction is done. Are they finished? I have no idea.
More...
I'm glad someone [finally] agrees with me on something.:D I have a bit different perspective though...I believe a successful trader only needs 3 things. 1) Current and past price data 2) A complete news block on current events, and 3) A reliable neighbor to let you know if a nuclear war has started.
 
Aj2014 said:
So many people seem to have got short on this drop yesterday and today with utter conviction we'd get a huge down move

I'm wonder what they all saw?

Some caught near the high yesterday and are still holding, and even on twitter I saw a lot of people get short soon after the open saying like 'short here. Expect we could go down over 200 ES points in the coming days' kinda thing

I have no idea how ppl know where we're going? Is it a chart thing? Something else that alerted ppl not only to go short, but to hold for many days?
More...
What crash??
 
KCalhoun said:
I called the November top early on, I am confident we'll get back to March 2020 lows by late summer if not sooner. #gobears

Long UVXY here over 1k shares into weekend :D
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Dang you be bearin' hard! :wtf:

[REM]It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.[/REM] :D
 
3rd swing below the 50sma. That was the signal - it happened on Thursday. I don't know that I'd call it obvious, but the indexes certainly aren't in an uptrend. Anyone going long is trying to catch a knife.

"If I am walking along a railroad track and I see a train coming toward me at sixty miles an hour, do I keep on walking on the ties? Friend, I sidestep. And I do not even pat myself on the back for being so wise and prudent." -Jesse Livermore
 
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The amazing statistic is the 7% straight down collapse of the Nasdaq 100 from the open on Thursday morning to the close on Friday. On Thursday it went from +2% to -2% in about 6 hours intraday.
 
Thurs morn RTH open TD Seq 13 and TD Pressure:-
! TD Seq TD Pres.png
 
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