How to track the "smart money"?

[Sprout]

You try to talk like your Buddha all while saying nothing of useful substance. What do you want me to say? Thanks?

It's meant as a filter.

The answers are only as good as the question.

While I appreciate a comparison to the Buddha and follow some of the teachings, I get triggered and have emotional ego-based reactions that cause more suffering than accepting what is.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I had all but given up on trading after taking some losses that outweighed my gains recently.

However, a few days prior to the Jackson Hole speech by Powell, I read this article saying hedge funds are placing bets on interest rates in record amounts. This caused me to trust their judgement and short the S&P futures. As expected, Powell was hawkish and this upset the "wishful thinking" crowd who thought that one month worth of better inflation numbers would cause the Fed to ease up.

The S&P has dropped significantly since then and I've made a good amount of money. Currently at about $6,300 profit on a ESU22 futures contract.

It got me thinking... Maybe following what the "smart money" does can be a good strategy. How can I follow this? Aside from just randomly coming across news articles.

Here's the article...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/fun...h-fed-jackson-hole-looms-mcgeever-2022-08-22/

Rather than play someone else's game, why not play your own? Instead of trying to predict, which is something of a superhuman feat, why not just react and follow? If a move is of any consequence, do you really need to position yourself at the exact turning point?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Rather than play someone else's game, why not play your own? Instead of trying to predict, which is something of a superhuman feat, why not just react and follow? If a move is of any consequence, do you really need to position yourself at the exact turning point?

That's true. Is that what you do? Wait for data releases and jump at opportunities as they come?

 

[murray t turtle]

Rather than play someone else's game, why not play your own? Instead of trying to predict, which is something of a superhuman feat, why not just react and follow? If a move is of any consequence, do you really need to position yourself at the exact turning point?

%%
Good points ''following points'';
especially since money has no mind of its own, nor is it intelligent.
NOT a prediction+ not insured by any federal agency, as the asset managers warn with wisdom.
Bad risk reward, always trying to catch the exact turn point ; even though Paul T Jones did it well.....................................................................................................

 

[MacBookProHo]

I had all but given up on trading after taking some losses

Maybe following what the "smart money" does can be a good strategy

There's nothing 'smart' about smart money, all of those funds can barely match the S&P annual average.

Your recent small, win, gain by following the smart money is nothing more but a lucky, rare, fluke of a win.
Your luck and performance and tank will run out dry, guaranteed, inevitably.

 

[easymon1]

You try to talk like your Buddha all while saying nothing of useful substance. What do you want me to say? Thanks?

LOL.
Tell tha funky dude, FJ!
lol

 

[easymon1]

I had all but given up on trading after taking some losses that outweighed my gains recently.

Why ya never gonna put 5 hours into trying on rules based trading for size?
It ain't rocket science.
A move outta the middle can make a pretty good sammich, FJ.
Have you ever traded using price charts?
If you were going to, what timeframe charts would you like to trade?

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Is that what you do? Wait for data releases and jump at opportunities as they come?

No. I'm not that good or that fast. The waves would capsize my rowboat. I leave trading on reports to the big guys, the brave ones, and the really smart traders, since I am none of the above. The closest I've ever traded to an important report is several minutes afterwards, and then only for snippets that I consider meaningful relative to my defined risk. I'm not suggesting that you should do the same thing. Just that trying to emulate the smart money is probably harder than it seems. You don't know their entry point(s), you don't know their time horizon, and you don't know their uncle point(s). Therefore, I think you need to set your own criteria; define your own game plan.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

Bad risk reward, always trying to catch the exact turn point ; even though Paul T Jones did it well...

Not many of us are PTJ. Last time I looked, there was one.

 

[murray t turtle]

Not many of us are PTJ. Last time I looked, there was one.

%%
Exactly+ thus the note trying to catch bottoms /tops= bad risk reward.
And even Paul Tudor Jones had a recent duck shooting ad in Ducks Unlimited MAGAzine[DU];
mainly being super selective when it comes to shooting ducks.
I would not call it smart money even though Mint Investments wisely noted sometimes going farther from home.
In Argentina the migratory birds move in such river like waves/ it does not matter.
but i still picked my shots\ birds were so plentiful.