How to track the "smart money"?

[margin_gamble]

While we agree on your first statement, the second is where our opinions diverge.

That's OK. Many consider him insane, many love him. Its a free country.

What I love most about him is that it appeared every mother's son was out to do him in - as is ongoing nowadays. But the MAN held his ground, held his position. that takes courage and integrity.

They hated him so much that my heart bled for him and I hoped he would not fall down and perish in the sea of hatred.

See how much they hated him and also a perfect example of my contrarian call, the day I knew he would win was when I heard the crowd at Bill Maher laffff at Ann Coulter

 

[margin_gamble]

Thread title

How to track the "smart money"?



Now dig this ................... go to my threads and count the number of times ET poster named vanzandt bellowed at me with massive emotion .

BTFD = by the f***in dip


Given he is an old timer who many many follow here blindly and give a whole lot of altitude to, he is a good choice for a contrarian signal

So he said buy the dip = go LONG = new bull market or continuing bull market.

I did the opposite and stayed short stance for the dominant trend namely BEAR to reassert itself

He lost big time. He got buggered so badly it took him 3 days to recover.

You got to measure the conviction in the voice. Learn to recognize how deeply one feels about something. Ignore the ones who are borderline not sure or just have normal emotion. go for the feverish ones like vanzandt and overnight.

then and only then do you have a good contrarian signal that you can use. then you go to TA and time the entry

 

[David's faith]

Let's say you trade SPY/SPX/ES on the weekly timeframe. How the hell can you predict economic data or FED announcements or anything else that blurs the picture like a Covid in '21? My biggest issue with higher time frames is that TA may help but is also the downfall of any approach I took so far as these events gave me the pure chill. I'm a swing trader, I stay in a position for a few days usually and the big gap days made me want to quit ans learn daytrading. What am I doing wrong @margin_gamble ? Should i stick religiously to TA in your opinion or go more into statistics, seasonality, fundamentals/COT and so on? Seriously: Any hint is appreciated, without sarcasm.
Edit: posted while you wrote your last post. Will use ET as signal.

 

[easymon1]

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

View attachment 293633

This book is all about analyzing the COT data to position yourself with smart money. Also plenty of free COT based charts can be found with a quick google search...much better than the raw data IMO.

What's the copyright date on that baby, ZG?

 

[margin_gamble]

Let's say you trade SPY/SPX/ES on the weekly timeframe. How the hell can you predict economic data or FED announcements or anything else that blurs the picture like a Covid in '21? My biggest issue with higher time frames is that TA may help but is also the downfall of any approach I took so far as these events gave me the pure chill. I'm a swing trader, I stay in a position for a few days usually and the big gap days made me want to quit ans learn daytrading. What am I doing wrong @margin_gamble ? Should i stick religiously to TA in your opinion or go more into statistics, seasonality, fundamentals/COT and so on? Seriously: Any hint is appreciated, without sarcasm.
Edit: posted while you wrote your last post. Will use Overnight as signal.

I'll do my best, David. I know you from some of your other posts so I know you are serious. I hope I can be of help.

OK, let's take SPY on weekly timeframe
If you are swing trading I assume its for a few days of holding your positions? Daily timeframe is far better for such short duration stints with weekly giving you backup as to whether the trend is in your favor or not.

For ultimate timing keeping both timeframes in mind, drop to 1H for your entries/exits.

Economic data and covid ................ I ignore all of this type of stuff. The TREND has it all packed in to it and already computed very quickly. Some surprise News can cause a spike her and there but it cannot change an extant trend that is itself not ready to change or reverse.

Economic news etc., is NOISE.

See next post for a cleeraer picture of why you don't need all theother stuff like FA and economic news bla bla

 

[SunTrader]

... What am I doing wrong @margin_gamble ?....

That.

 

[margin_gamble]

You're in a mountain cabin no human in sight, no TV no radio only an internet connection and your account with the broker and access to software for data and you are trading SPY.

The data that is streaming in on SPY is more than adequate to make a bloody fortune.

Everything else is N O I S E. It might sound important and flashy but is useless. The sole arbiter is PRICE and he don't give a rat's ass about FA, earnings and CEOs and whatnot

TA, just pure TA with accurate DATA is all you need.

Open, High, Low, Close and volume and Open interest is all you need. Anything ese will cloud your judgement and not only not help you but will detract from your success

 

[easymon1]

Everything else is N O I S E. TA, just pure TA with accurate DATA is all you need.
Open, High, Low, Close and volume and Open interest is all you need.

My brother from another mother, lol.
As far as "Open, High, Low, Close and volume", I ain't that good, I need some support and resistance generally, so that's gonna bring on some movingaverages usually, and sometimes lines 'n crap to pay attention to what's already there, lol.
TA tho, gimme that ol time Price Action first and foremost, then if a second opinion is in order then, maybe ... use a oscil'r and maybe one more.

 

[margin_gamble]

That.

Ignore this clown. She is still reeling rom my day #1 at ET when she took a personal dislike and has never gotten over it. Why should she be drop kicked out the window?

No live trade entry/exit. all hindsight stuff which any z**nt can do. What's a z***t? A c**t with a zipper.


Extract from ET founder's journal

Unlike the vast majority of YouTubers and other social media influencers, I'm not going to take a position and then tell you guys what I did after the fact. I have no interest in front-running or doing anything that would be considered manipulative. Instead, I will tell you what I'm going to do in advance of me actually doing it. That advanced notice could be days, hours, or minutes but rest assured that I'm going to tell you what I'm going to do before I actually do it, even if that means that you get a better fill than me. And all that will be verifiable from the timestamps on my posts.

 

[margin_gamble]

My brother from another mother, lol.
TA's too flashy tho, gimme that ol time Price Action first and foremost, then if a second opinion is in order then, maybe ...

Hey amigo, god bless you, its YOU and only YOU that got me going with my new moving average system work. The T-Line is the foundation and I am buildijng somthing uncomplicated from there. All credit goes to you. I had actually dropped it like I said a while back due to lack of success.

Price action was what I have been going by for the most part. However the 2 indicators Macd and RSI are the only add ons I use. Missing was a moving average system. all I had was the 200-day, my bread and butter.