How to short the education bubble?

Aren't you the canary in the coal mine? You are telling us the air is starting to leak out. Bubbles don't need to quite burst like the real eastate one did to be a profitable short ... although it is nice if they do.

As in all shorts price action is key to the timing but my bet is the high water mark for the companies is visible through the rear view mirror. The good times are ending.

Quote from Satan's Helper:

You might just be right about an education bubble!

One of my private investments is in a educational website that gets almost all of its income from a handful of education based advertisers through Google Adsense. Mainly the stocks listed on http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USEDU:IND plus a few other lead selling networks like collegebound and others like it.

The last two months I have seen a 25% drop in my revenue. Something is up because my traffic is still really good (probably more than ET), the site is still dominating all of the key search terms but the pay per click these advertisers are willing to pay has fallen. I know these companies well because I have spoke to many of the upper management people. They bought up schools and turned them into schools for profit. They got rid of school tours and the old way of recruiting by replaced those people with used car salesman pretending to be some sort of education advisers. All they basically need to make money is a naive kid that the salesman can rush into signing for student loans. It is an easy kill and no matter if the kid gets a education or not they are on the hook for the loan for life. It has been a great business! That money seems to be slowing down fast. I am pretty high up the food chain so I hope I am not seeing the end of the trend.

All of the above has got me thinking. These companies might be running out of money to burn, students are getting jobs or the gravy train ride is over and it is time for murders and executions to start happening. The strong companies need start to buying and sell the weaker players. It may be just like the real estate bubble again!

I would like to hear what you think will burst this bubble?
 
A different era -- over 45 years ago. These kids are frequently getting crap and taking on an enormous debt load with it. The schools are not all the same and ITT may be an exception but my guess is they are now all overpriced thanks to the disruptive government financing.


Quote from oldtime:

my brother in law went to the equivalent of ITT Tech the day he graduated from high school. It was an embarrasment to my father when my sister married him because he had no college degree. But as soon as he completed his training in computer programming got a job, and worked at that same job (even though the company changed hands many times, as a matter of fact, at one time the company I worked for bought his company) until he turned age 65, and ended up with a creamy pension, house all paid off.

If I had a kid in high school today I would tell them to do the same thing. You can always start working on your college degree part time after you get a job, on your own money, no loan.
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

A different era -- over 45 years ago. These kids are frequently getting crap and taking on an enormous debt load with it. The schools are not all the same and ITT may be an exception but my guess is they are now all overpriced thanks to the disruptive government financing.
I hear ya, one of my daughters got a government job and decided she wanted more, so she got her masters, only to find the only job she could find that paid the same was her old job back. So she just said screw it, I'll go get my Phd. They pay her 15k a year stipend. And that's the best deal going now for a part time job (which really is all it is.)

I don't get into money with her, but she says there is some government deal where they will forgive her all her student loan debt, but I know it is well over 50k.

The thing is, she is married with one child, and her husband speaks very litle English and really for all intents and purposes is illiterate, yet they live here now in USA a very nice middle class life. Nice apartment, 2 cars, tv, well diversified IRA. Plus they own 2 houses and are building a third in Africa.

So the American dream is expensive, but not gone for all.

But so far, that education has not really paid for itself. Not like it was guranteed to do back when you and I were young. It's really a gamble. Borrow 50k in hopes of someday making it back.

I'm pretty sure with a good guidence counselor and strict controls on how it is spent, many high school graduates would do better if you just loaned them 50k to do whatever they wanted to with it. Get 20 of them together with a wise business advisor and they would have a cool million to start out with.

I worked for Ross Perot for a while, and he placed no stock in formal education. Didn't care one iota about your degree, especially in the computer industry where by the time the university printed the textbook it was already obsolete. One of his highest paid right hand men didn't even have a high school diploma.
 
Quote from short&naked:

What stocks or derivatives would you use to short a possible bubble in higher education (similar to the way some hedge fund managers shorted the housing bubble)?

the problem with shorting anything is the gvt.
who knows,when they can step in and to what extend they might intervene...
this is why we have bubble in first place.
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

Aren't you the canary in the coal mine? You are telling us the air is starting to leak out. Bubbles don't need to quite burst like the real eastate one did to be a profitable short ... although it is nice if they do.

As in all shorts price action is key to the timing but my bet is the high water mark for the companies is visible through the rear view mirror. The good times are ending.

You are exactly right!

I don't know if it is a bubble yet but I am one of the first people to get paid in this food chain. For the last two months the air does seem thinner. It is kind of like transportation stocks doing badly before the corporate earnings start missing there estimates.

My position is I have a cash cow owned outright and it would suck to see it produce less milk. This is a genuine concern because that business is worth a few hundred K and don't even do anything to earn that money. It has been a safe income source for years. If the bubble busts I am SOL! I am a bit scared because I know how these schools are operating.

I always have my ears open for legitimate threats!
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

A different era -- over 45 years ago. These kids are frequently getting crap and taking on an enormous debt load with it. The schools are not all the same and ITT may be an exception but my guess is they are now all overpriced thanks to the disruptive government financing.

Machinists can get 50k off the bat with a 2 year associates degree from a techincal school with really good job security. That's right now. In my area, I think those salaries will increase as the older generation retires (whereas unskilled labor will be unchanged).
 
Quote from short&naked:

Right, but how???

i think zerohedge (i know it's out there) had an article on it a couple days ago - i think it involved second market and trading student loans there.
 
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