Aren't you the canary in the coal mine? You are telling us the air is starting to leak out. Bubbles don't need to quite burst like the real eastate one did to be a profitable short ... although it is nice if they do.
As in all shorts price action is key to the timing but my bet is the high water mark for the companies is visible through the rear view mirror. The good times are ending.
As in all shorts price action is key to the timing but my bet is the high water mark for the companies is visible through the rear view mirror. The good times are ending.
Quote from Satan's Helper:
You might just be right about an education bubble!
One of my private investments is in a educational website that gets almost all of its income from a handful of education based advertisers through Google Adsense. Mainly the stocks listed on http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USEDU:IND plus a few other lead selling networks like collegebound and others like it.
The last two months I have seen a 25% drop in my revenue. Something is up because my traffic is still really good (probably more than ET), the site is still dominating all of the key search terms but the pay per click these advertisers are willing to pay has fallen. I know these companies well because I have spoke to many of the upper management people. They bought up schools and turned them into schools for profit. They got rid of school tours and the old way of recruiting by replaced those people with used car salesman pretending to be some sort of education advisers. All they basically need to make money is a naive kid that the salesman can rush into signing for student loans. It is an easy kill and no matter if the kid gets a education or not they are on the hook for the loan for life. It has been a great business! That money seems to be slowing down fast. I am pretty high up the food chain so I hope I am not seeing the end of the trend.
All of the above has got me thinking. These companies might be running out of money to burn, students are getting jobs or the gravy train ride is over and it is time for murders and executions to start happening. The strong companies need start to buying and sell the weaker players. It may be just like the real estate bubble again!
I would like to hear what you think will burst this bubble?