How to know trend or chop in REAL time

[Frederick Foresight]

at some casinos these days they post the trend of black or red on the roulette tables
I think the largest I ever saw was 23 blacks in a row

That's why I always bet black

Except after 23 in a row I would start betting red

most of the time, most tables are just chopping

After landing black 23 times in a row, I would be inclined to believe there was probably something wrong with the roulette wheel, and would definitely bet on black again if the casino didn't already take it out of commission.

 

[loyek590]

After landing black 23 times in a row, I would be inclined to believe there was probably something wrong with the roulette wheel, and would definitely bet on black again if the casino didn't already take it out of commission.

there is usually something wrong with the markets I trade

 

[loyek590]

This doesn't make sense. A trend is not a single-time event like the outcome of a roulette spin. Unless you're claiming that your trends immediately reverse with no intervening chop, they most certainly aren't occurring "in a row". And of course to have a trend eventually follow the most recent one is just normal behaviour.

Frankly this roulette example is ridiculous. The chance of getting 23 blacks in a row for a fair game of roulette is one out of 15,753,318 for a single-zero wheel and one out of 29,090,762.5 for a double-zero wheel. More likely the game was rigged.

see, they design these wheels with three colors. A red is a down tick, a green is unchanged, and a black is an uptick

23 blacks in a row is very rare on a wheel but very common in the market

who knows, maybe the market is rigged

I know for sure it is not fair

 

[NoVoodooHere]

Investor only care for price up or down, in chop time they just "buy and hold".

For directional traders, most of them are leverage and they only care two scenario: market is trending or chop.

Chop is the great opportunity for scalpers, a big trend will kill them alive if they don't cut their loss in early stage. However, a tight SL means they will get stop out frequently which is in contradict with this strategy, and it is not easy to define the SL as no one will know the volatility in real time.

Trend is the great opportunity for trend follower, they just ride the wave, e,g, the oil, Chinese market, or even DAX recently and win big. They will get stop out frequently if the market chop and die with thousand cuts.

It is easy to point out chop or trend in hindsight and anyone with 2 hours chart training will be able to do this, some so call "expert" will try to show some BS approach like drawing a channel or parallel line and recommend to trade at extreme, but in reality the market will eat you alive when it is continue to chop even you try to trade in those extreme / pivot points

I haven't seen any "guru" ever show this (e.g. how to know chop or trend in REAL time) with any high accuracy (more like 50%/50% the best ), even those supposed to be the "famous" or legend one.

Anyone has something to share ?

You don't. There, got it? No? OK, I will show you by rephrasing your question: How do you know when RANDOM data is trending or chop?

... You don't, & if you keep looking for an answer to an irrational question... Off with your head

 

[loyek590]

You don't. There, got it? No? OK, I will show you by rephrasing your question: How do you know when RANDOM data is trending or chop?

... You don't, & if you keep looking for an answer to an irrational question... Off with your head

well said, but I have always found it's easier to bet on a mathematical probability

and everybody knows a coin toss is 50/50

so that's the one thing we know for sure

but we never know when it will trend

but we are not betting on the coin toss, we are betting on how people will bet, and when you get on the right side of that trend it can trend very profitably indeed.

 

[galvinlee888]

The ultimate goal for this is if we can know (or at least with a high probability of prediction) that WHEN the chop will change to trend (or trend to chop), in theory you can develop the most profitable strategy in this world.

The strategy will trade ABC approach in trending market, and switch to XYZ approach in chop market. Just thinking

 

[loyek590]

The ultimate goal for this is if we can know (or at least with a high probability of prediction) that WHEN the chop will change to trend (or trend to chop), in theory you can develop the most profitable strategy in this world.

The strategy will trade ABC approach in trending market, and switch to XYZ approach in chop market. Just thinking

you will know when you start getting stopped out to the point that you start losing your mind, not to mention your trading account, that you are in the middle of the chop, or on the wrong side of the trend.

 

[galvinlee888]

This is essentially what I do. If I'm stopped out of both sides in succession, then I'm in chop. This is nearly always accompanied by a lower high and a higher low, either simultaneously or soon thereafter. I don't trade again until the chop is exited. This can take a few minutes or several hours.

Honestly, it is not that hard to setup a system for trending market, the key is to start your position with a free ride from the herd when they panic (not that hard to figure this out), and put your stop in the place that the stop loss hunter have to pay a high price to hit it. Right ?

Chop is even easy to trade - as far as you know it is chop and the chop will persists .

 

[loyek590]

most traders believe when it moves against you, you are in the trend and it will just keep moving against you to infinity until it wipes you out. So they use stops.

But when it moves in your favor they are sure they are in the chop and it will turn on you at any time and they take a small profit.

skitsoid traders, believe one thing when it moves against you, and another thing when it moves in your favor

 

[kut2k2]

After landing black 23 times in a row, I would be inclined to believe there was probably something wrong with the roulette wheel, and would definitely bet on black again if the casino didn't already take it out of commission.

The rule among "professional" gamblers, especially those who engage in negative-expectation games like roulette, is "Bet with the Trend or not at all." The trend in this case is three or more like events in a row, e.g., three or more black numbers in a row.

So if you started betting after the third black outcome and continued betting and gradually increasing your bet until spin #24 when a red number appeared, you could have netted quite a sum before getting stopped.