How to know trend or chop in REAL time
- Thread starter galvinlee888
- Start date
THANK YOU for the observation.
The strategy is indeed a very sound one.
I am tempted to go and try it myself in some casino.
But now: how patient do you think you'd be to wait for a 23 blacks in a row?
And imagine that for over one year, there is no 23 strikes coming, will
you be able to not bet OR will you be tempted to gamble at a lesser
number of strikes?
Now, if I suggest www.dhamma.org to develop more patience, what would you say?
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well, if you knew you were playing on a table which regularly trended 23 times in a row, you could probably come up with some kind of money management or betting plan.
The markets I trade regularly trend 23 times in a row, but most of the times they just chop. So I need a strong defense against the chop, and a well rested offense to go into action on the trend.
and I don't always win
well if you are going to look at it that way, then everything is always chopping
depends on how you look at it.... 23 in a row starting now = very unlikely
23 in a row at some point in the next 10,000 spins = extremely likely.
On the 23rd attempt, I found the all time high in Crude Oil few years ago, rode that puppy all the way down, and although I had 22 losing trades "overall" in futures, few times it reached first target on half position and was always hedged, the other half were stopped out at breakeven.
CHOP= I love chop, I have made a good living trading chop, most of those who stay in the game long time are also very best to make money knowing out of chop comes trend. Price often times shows what it most likely to do next, but you have to study. If you have many trades of getting breakeven plus a tick, you often times in chop. Many indicators will show chop, RSI and moving averages as in enclosed chart, which is also a system if you put some time into it. Trading really isn't hard, but what is hard is constant confidence in oneself often based on childhood failures/fears, one has to be honest with themselves and it is tough to admit one's past of failures as we live in a life of never saying it was our fault, losing money eventually makes to either quit or fess up to one's problems in life, I have many. After few years, you discover where you get in means so little and managing the trade is everything. You have to go against what you feel and make note of it, use it to your advantage.
CHOP=I luv it! Buy Low and risk few ticks, look for areas that are repeated touches of same area, watch the DOME, does it show less volume on first couple price levels on the ask? Chances are movement is close by.
CHOP= I love chop, I have made a good living trading chop, most of those who stay in the game long time are also very best to make money knowing out of chop comes trend. Price often times shows what it most likely to do next, but you have to study. If you have many trades of getting breakeven plus a tick, you often times in chop. Many indicators will show chop, RSI and moving averages as in enclosed chart, which is also a system if you put some time into it. Trading really isn't hard, but what is hard is constant confidence in oneself often based on childhood failures/fears, one has to be honest with themselves and it is tough to admit one's past of failures as we live in a life of never saying it was our fault, losing money eventually makes to either quit or fess up to one's problems in life, I have many. After few years, you discover where you get in means so little and managing the trade is everything. You have to go against what you feel and make note of it, use it to your advantage.
CHOP=I luv it! Buy Low and risk few ticks, look for areas that are repeated touches of same area, watch the DOME, does it show less volume on first couple price levels on the ask? Chances are movement is close by.
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This doesn't make sense. A trend is not a single-time event like the outcome of a roulette spin. Unless you're claiming that your trends immediately reverse with no intervening chop, they most certainly aren't occurring "in a row". And of course to have a trend eventually follow the most recent one is just normal behaviour.
Frankly this roulette example is ridiculous. The chance of getting 23 blacks in a row for a fair game of roulette is one out of 15,753,318 for a single-zero wheel and one out of 29,090,762.5 for a double-zero wheel. More likely the game was rigged.
If you limit yourself to clean setups, then you will not likely enter during obvious chop, as you define it. However, if you get stopped out, and assuming you used an "appropriate" protective stop (again, whatever that may be), then the market has either reversed or possibly gone into chop. And so you wait for the next clean setup that, ideally, doesn't occur in obvious chop. Waiting is good.
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This is essentially what I do. If I'm stopped out of both sides in succession, then I'm in chop. This is nearly always accompanied by a lower high and a higher low, either simultaneously or soon thereafter. I don't trade again until the chop is exited. This can take a few minutes or several hours.