How to know trend or chop in REAL time
- Thread starter galvinlee888
- Start date
For anything that exist, it must depend on something else.
A trend cannot exist on its own so what causes the trend to exist? (There are weak, strong and very strong trends depending on the time frame one is looking at, there are even fake trends)
A chop can mean sideways pattern, a continuation pattern, flags or something else. But again, what causes them to exist?
The other issue are the words "REAL time", which means "NOW" based on our perception. This means looking for confirmation on say the charts to tell us that we should be placing our trades when those conditions are meet. The REAL question here is are you trusting what you are seeing or do you actually "know" what you are seeing?
When this is understood, "REAL time" is irrelevant because the hidden "intent" and the "right conditions" are not meet and known.
weren't we just talking on the head trip forum and debating on the value of pot and lsd?
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/fo...yckoff-law-supply-demand-auction-markets.html
This thread has gone on for nearly a hundred posts and may go on for another hundred. Or two. Or three. But no one is going to provide you with a quick-and-easy answer. Even the indicator people.
If you want an answer to your question, you're going to have to find it via research and experimentation, beginning with at least the collection of a hundred examples of trends turning into ranges/chop/consolidation.
First, of course, you have to define "trend" and "chop".
Second, you have to find those examples mentioned above.
Third, you have to determine those elements which signal the transition from one to the other. At that point, you'll have your answer. Given that you've been at this for seven years, the question should have arisen and been answered long ago. But better late than never.
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That's strange. I've seen two different members here at ET give you links to sources that gives you applicable solutions to the question involving how to identify trend and chop in real-time.
Yet, you do not acknowledge their messages (maybe you have them on ignore).
In contrast, the issue I pointed out is that your question really isn't about real-time. Your question is about prediction...you're looking for a solution for identifying trend and chop in the future. Simply, you're really talking about is there a way to look at the current (real-time) price action to be able to determine if there will be trend or chop 5mins from now, 1hour from now, 1day from now, 1month from now, 1year from now and so on. Yet, most here have agreed...that's not possible. Thus, I agree with you...if someone can predict tomorrow's trend or chop...they would be the richest person.
Therefore, for the latter...you have your answer...it can't be done. Whereas real-time analysis for the current price action...I think most here can look at their charts and say the price action is in a trend or chop via whatever definition they have for such with high accuracy. How to exploit such in real-time is a completely different story and wasn't part of your OP statement.
The other flip side is that if one doesn't even have a definition for trend or chop...trying to determine such in real-time is a waste of effort. Before you ask...you can use ET search or Google to read up on any of the thousands of definitions that folks are using to determine in real-time if the current price action is trend or chop from price action, indicators and even mathematical equations (computer codes) all freely shared at many different forums.
Take a look at the EuroFX 6E futures via the 30min or 1hour chart just for Friday alone. Here's a real-time trend/chop analysis...its a chop. Yet, that's not what you're really asking. Instead, you want to know will it continue to be choppy on Monday or will it trend on Monday...as in advance prediction for something to occur later.
Note: I wouldn't worry about other time frames unless you're actually using those other time frames. If you're using a different time frame...there's a chance your trend/chop analysis will be different or the same. That in itself is not a problem because traders using different time frames for trend./chop analysis implies they also have different goals and actions. In other words, just worry about your own time frame and not what the other person is using.
Nobody knows the answer to that and if they took a wild guess...there's no guarantee such will appear on Monday. More importantly, you don't need to know what's going to happen on Monday. You just need to have a trading plan to exploit both situations if either occurs or if you only trade trend and chop shows up...you stay on the sidelines even if you get a trade signal or if you prefer to trade chop and trend shows up...you stay on the sidelines even if you get a trade signal.
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It's been answered by these 2 guys, and a few others. It Can't be done, OP.
Same as a trader can never have a clue as to whether price is about to go up or down.
I would have thought that would be a pre-requisite to being able to make consistent profits.
The more I read, the more confused I become!
