How to know trend or chop in REAL time

[dbphoenix]

There is no secret. This is one man's rule. Others may prefer some other criteria for stopping out. Maybe a statistical measure or volatility measure or something else. Those looking at price alone must make decisions based on price behaviour.



Please define what "and move on" means. One person may define it as quitting for the day (assuming an intra-day trader). Another may think of taking a break based on some time parameter. Yet another may choose to wait for price to leave the trading range being formed before re-engaging the market. The devil's in the details - and so are the profits.

True. Trolls will of course latch onto the "rule" rather than note that I said "mine". One can use MAXOs. Or a stochastic. Or the RSI. Or any other of the umpteen oscillators. Or one can use a time stop. Or place a bracket order and go for a bike ride. What matters is having a rule whose results are what one finds acceptable. The specifics are irrelevant to anyone other than the trader who developed the rule.

Of course, anyone who actually trades and trades profitably knows this.

 

[Gringo]

"and move on" means you bought a lot of bullshit and there is nobody to sell it to but losers on ET

No selling is possible without the consent and active participation of a buyer. Selling does involve an exchange of one good for another. This in effect is not selling but rather free sharing for information.

Some may choose as free individuals to try it and others may find it to be outright bullshit. Those who may choose to use this information may even find it to be not suitable for their purposes and disregard it. In either case there is no compulsion.

Those unaware of the chop are the ones getting chopped to bits. Then there are those like @Handle123 who have learned to thrive in it. Chop isn't the enemy. It's not knowing what to do when it does manifest.

 

[loyek590]

There is no secret. This is one man's rule. Others may prefer some other criteria for stopping out. Maybe a statistical measure or volatility measure or something else. Those looking at price alone must make decisions based on price behaviour.



Please define what "and move on" means. One person may define it as quitting for the day (assuming an intra-day trader). Another may think of taking a break based on some time parameter. Yet another may choose to wait for price to leave the trading range being formed before re-engaging the market. The devil's in the details - and so are the profits.

getting back to "and move on", a real big balls trader bets it all on one position. I like the question. I am just a small retail trader. You can't believe how much I lost on just my smallest position which was long term wrong on some usd.cad.

 

[candles]

When playing roulette, and 5 reds come in in-a-row, it's trending reds.
If it keeps alternating between red and black, then it's 'choppy'.

 

[loyek590]

True. Trolls will of course latch onto the "rule" rather than note that I said "mine". One can use MAXOs. Or a stochastic. Or the RSI. Or any other of the umpteen oscillators. Or one can use a time stop. Or place a bracket order and go for a bike ride. What matters is having a rule whose results are what one finds acceptable. The specifics are irrelevant to anyone other than the trader who developed the rule.

Of course, anyone who actually trades and trades profitably knows this.

oh man, do I lose a demerit and get a brownie point for you mentioning "a time stop."?

 

[loyek590]

getting back to the chop, whic

This is where a thread such as this bumps up against the probability issue (see game's probability thread). A very great many traders can't wrap their heads around the fact that each moment in the market is unique with the concept that one can nonetheless anticipate moves with an acceptable level of probability ("significance"). This is at the core of Auction Market Theory.

IOW, one can look at a particular level, such as an all-time high, and anticipate with X degree of certainty that price will reverse there -- or continue -- but not be able to say with 100% certainty that it will due to the fact that each moment is unique.

But rather than try to puzzle this out at some sort of metaphysical level, one can simply plan for either occurrence and trade accordingly. This takes only a fraction of the thought, though it does -- as Mark points out -- require planning.

really? so you can look at a chart with all the historical data you could ever want and predict to us what it will probably do next?

 

[loyek590]

getting back on track, I really like galvinlee881's original post. It pretty much sums up gambling on the trend or the chop.

 

[Gringo]

getting back to the chop, whic

really? so you can look at a chart with all the historical data you could ever want and predict to us what it will probably do next?

This question isn't about the chop, but is about having an edge.

 

[candles]

You need an 'edge' if you want to make consistent profits.
Sellindexvol is the only trader on elite who I can think of off the top of my head who falls into that group. He isn't drawing lines on charts - i'm pretty sure of that!

 

[loyek590]

getting back on track, I really like galvinlee881's original post. It pretty much sums up gambling on the trend or the chop.

or who knows? sometimes betting on the almost always constant chop, or the rare trend?
I already lost almost all of my ass betting on the chop, even though every day it makes you feel good