How to define a trend 100 % objectively ?

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from BJL:

The first condition is met when the price is higher than the price of 200 days ago and cannot be determined be using the 100day MA alone, and the latter isn't exactly correct either.

Writing that you are right does not make you right. I can prove my statement mathematically. Can you at least give a counter example? Work an example, and you should be able to see that I am right.

 

[TradStSOX]

+1
indeed...

Quote from Spydertrader:

So, the mode of the thread is asking those, who already did the work to define trend, to hand over to you their 'code' - thereby saving you the time of thinking for yourself.

Thank you for the clarification. You saved me some typing.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from fluttrader:

Till now only linear regression as definition fits the bill.

Good idea. Use Linear regression. One last thing, please trade the ES. Thanks.

- Spydertrader

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from fluttrader:

From which moment you can say there is a higher high and higher low , THAT is the subjectivity in the description

Till now only linear regression as definition fits the bill.

I think there is another point that is not looked at correctly.
Higher higher and lower low, pre-suppose that one decided on a time frame for each bar,and a time frame for the trading.

Therefore the other question that is left is the time-frame? How do you decide on it? I think this is the central question in trading. Once one can include multiple time frames and trends, one can make money much easier.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Good idea. Use Linear regression. One last thing, please trade the ES. Thanks.

- Spydertrader

+2

 

[fluttrader]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

I think there is another point that is not looked at correctly.
Higher higher and lower low, pre-suppose that one decided on a time frame for each bar,and a time frame for the trading.

Therefore the other question that is left is the time-frame? How do you decide on it? I think this is the central question in trading. Once one can include multiple time frames and trends, one can make money much easier.

EXACTLY !

That is the crucial thing when you start talking about local highs and lows,
when does a certain zone becomes a local high or low, you need first to define this BEFORE you can use these local highs and lows to derive the trend from it.

 

[TradStSOX]

Don't be so cruel now...

Quote from Spydertrader:

Good idea. Use Linear regression. One last thing, please trade the ES. Thanks.

- Spydertrader

 

[pneuma]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Do you realize that the what you are saying can be done with the 100 day moving average alone. The 200 adds NO information at all. What you said can be alternatively said as follows: the 100 MA is higher than what it was 100 days ago, and it is higher than 35% compared to what it was 100 days ago. Note now that the first part in your condition is now redundant, as it is implied by the second part.

They would be two separate examples of how one might start to write their rules.

But thanks for the clarification.

 

[makloda]

Quote from fluttrader:
Not really a "hard" definition...

Not sure how much harder you want it. I use the slope of a simple moving average on commodity futures to define if its in an up- or downtrend. Then I am either long or short. Very simple.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Interesting makloda,

I use emas rather than smas (intraday) but require testing behaviour relative to the mas rather than just slope change or crossover alone.

For the OP. Trend is always in the eye and the timeframe of the beholder. If it was objective or simple then anyone could do it --- and what's more, computerize it!