You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
How much will real estate go down?
- Thread starter lasner
- Start date
Where I live, lots of building is going on to keep the illegal immigrants from Mexico and South America working. They are building new neighborhoods in all price ranges while housing sales are at record lows.
Quote from Eddiefl:
I think your above example is a little extreme, if there is only one realtor in my town, that person would be closing 1500 home closings per month in our county and would be worth tens of millions within a year or so,lol..
Something to think about. At the peak in our area, West Coast of Florida, the busiest month we had was a 3500 unit month. That is closings in one month, one helluva of a drop.
This is a diifucult call to make, but I think the best estimate would be as a previous poster said, it will be location specific. Some areas I know have maintained thier values for the last 6 months, beach, downtown, little niche beighborhoods with small airports, other areas have tanked already 20-25%. So i would agree, site specific and i would think another 1.5year before we get a general rise in values.
I was dramatizing quite a bit.
I have seen real estate cycles before, they are so ultra-dependent on interest rates and easy loans. I'm just trying to make it clear to the younger people... the thing is that many move-up buyers need to sell their existing homes to first-time buyers, with the easy credit gone the supply of first time buyers is dried up and the whole process stalls while prices fall, really they probably will fall until first time buyers are abundant again and that won't happen until we have a recession and we forget all the lessons we learned from this bubble [we always seem to] and the Fed stimulates things by lowering rates and lenders ease loan requirements.....
Quote from $preader:
Greenspan doesn't seem to think so,he thinks house prices could stabilize this year:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaxAVt6wuHQg
Greenspan is a fucking retard
Quote from Eddiefl:
Maxpi,, I respect your posts, but i think your above example is a little extreme, if there is only one realtor in my town, that person would be closing 1500 home closings per month in our county and would be worth tens of millions within a year or so,lol..
Something to think about. At the peak in our area, West Coast of Florida, the busiest month we had was a 3500 unit month. That is closings in one month, one helluva of a drop.
This is a diifucult call to make, but I think the best estimate would be as a previous poster said, it will be location specific. Some areas I know have maintained thier values for the last 6 months, beach, downtown, little niche beighborhoods with small airports, other areas have tanked already 20-25%. So i would agree, site specific and i would think another 1.5year before we get a general rise in values.
I love how the idiots in my town always talk about how it won't hit here that bad.
The real estate bubble was one of the biggest bubbles ever! It's going to hit everywhere
The real estate bust in the late 80's early 90s took over 10 years to wind itself out
REITs in the 90's were worth pennies on the dollar
then we had this massive updraft
who the hell knows if we will retrace to the early 90's lows
high on the probability list though: buy at the beach while the feds will still share your risk
theres only so much sand left to build on
REITs in the 90's were worth pennies on the dollar
then we had this massive updraft
who the hell knows if we will retrace to the early 90's lows
high on the probability list though: buy at the beach while the feds will still share your risk
theres only so much sand left to build on
This is the thing that I really love. Wait just wait until the fed has to aggressively raise interest rates to cut inflation. It's going to eventually have to happen. With oil at $110 a barrel I don't know how our country still functions.
I work in sales and call on major manufacturers all day long. I call on trucking companies as well. A lot of them are going under because of gas prices. Most are shutting down. If oil hits $130 a barrel our whole country will shut down. And the stupid ass fed wants to lower rates.....
Do you how important oil is and how many manufacturers are impacted by it. Plastic is made from oil....every product that contains plastic is affected....cars, computers....everything. Do you know how many products are a derivative of oil....everything....it's in just about f**king everything.
I know people will say when our economy cools everything will come down. But with our dollar tanking and other currencies strengthing....I think the fed will still have to raise rates drastically.
Wait until all of these stupid lost sheep see a 10% mortgage rate or better a 15% mortgage. Tell me what happens to real estate then. Say goodnight....
I work in sales and call on major manufacturers all day long. I call on trucking companies as well. A lot of them are going under because of gas prices. Most are shutting down. If oil hits $130 a barrel our whole country will shut down. And the stupid ass fed wants to lower rates.....
Do you how important oil is and how many manufacturers are impacted by it. Plastic is made from oil....every product that contains plastic is affected....cars, computers....everything. Do you know how many products are a derivative of oil....everything....it's in just about f**king everything.
I know people will say when our economy cools everything will come down. But with our dollar tanking and other currencies strengthing....I think the fed will still have to raise rates drastically.
Wait until all of these stupid lost sheep see a 10% mortgage rate or better a 15% mortgage. Tell me what happens to real estate then. Say goodnight....
We've seen it before
Volcker did it in the 80's
It hurt for a while --- but then the country saw economic growth for years thereafter
and by the way - if you owned a house when inflation was at 8% 9% you saw your house appreciate at 11-12% each of those years
Volcker did it in the 80's
It hurt for a while --- but then the country saw economic growth for years thereafter
and by the way - if you owned a house when inflation was at 8% 9% you saw your house appreciate at 11-12% each of those years
Quote from lasner:
This is the thing that I really love. Wait just wait until the fed has to aggressively raise interest rates to cut inflation. It's going to eventually have to happen. With oil at $110 a barrel I don't know how our country still functions.
I work in sales and call on major manufacturers all day long. I call on trucking companies as well. A lot of them are going under because of gas prices. Most are shutting down. If oil hits $130 a barrel our whole country will shut down. And the stupid ass fed wants to lower rates.....
Do you how important oil is and how many manufacturers are impacted by it. Plastic is made from oil....every product that contains plastic is affected....cars, computers....everything. Do you know how many products are a derivative of oil....everything....it's in just about f**king everything.
I know people will say when our economy cools everything will come down. But with our dollar tanking and other currencies strengthing....I think the fed will still have to raise rates drastically.
Wait until all of these stupid lost sheep see a 10% mortgage rate or better a 15% mortgage. Tell me what happens to real estate then. Say goodnight....
Quote from mgabriel01:
We've seen it before
Volcker did it in the 80's
It hurt for a while --- but then the country saw economic growth for years thereafter
and by the way - if you owned a house when inflation was at 8% 9% you saw your house appreciate at 11-12% each of those years
Pricing will come down all the more. If you see a mortgage rate at 15% how much more will real estate come down.....who's going to be able to afford anything.
The median price for a home in the northeast is 265k or at least it was. What's a mortgage at 15% on 265k....forget about it nobody can afford that.
People afforded it in the 80s
I did
Lotsa people did
maybe you simply weren't around to see it?
I did
Lotsa people did
maybe you simply weren't around to see it?
Quote from lasner:
Pricing will come down all the more. If you see a mortgage rate at 15% how much more will real estate come down.....who's going to be able to afford anything.
The median price for a home in the northeast is 265k or at least it was. What's a mortgage at 15% on 265k....forget about it nobody can afford that.