How much will real estate go down?

Quote from bunds:

I don't know why people wast their time trading when there has been so much to be made from real estate speculation over the last 10 years. Much more enjoyable than sitting in front of a screen. Become a landlord - it's more enjoyable, higher chance of success and you MEET PEOPLE instead of being a hurmid in front of 5 screens
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HA HA But those days are over with....making money in real estate. It's a depreciating asset from here on out....at least for the next couple of years.
 
Quote from $preader:

Greenspan doesn't seem to think so,he thinks house prices could stabilize this year:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaxAVt6wuHQg
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Is this the same Alan Greenspan who thought creative mortgage products would be of benefit to consumers? The same guy who didn't see a housing bubble? And then when things started getting bad, admitted he didnt get it til it was too late, and finally admitted there was, in fact, a bubble?
The guy who now advocates socialism to get out of this mess?

Personally, I would think twice before trading along with Easy Al.
 
Easy Al...Bubble boy imo fits better :D

bubble.jpg

can someone put Easy Al face in that picture? holding toilet paper :) :) :)
 
Quote from maxpi:

We are still unwinding the top of the market and people are looking for the bottom! Your best indicator is realty offices, when they have all closed in your area but one, and you walk by and there is one pathetic realtor in there looking bored, with the lights turned off to conserve energy costs and interest rates have not started downward for the purpose of ending the recession [hint: we aren't even in the recession yet] , it's still not the bottom. It will take as long for people's thinking to overcome the negativity at the bottom as it has for them to overcome the positive outlook at the top........ and the builders are the dumbest money in town, they will be the very last to catch on that the top is over with... we are already seeing projects catch fire in Southern California so some of them have figured it out...

If you see a house you would like to own and occupy, you might rent it with an option to buy, no locked in prices at this point, just an option to buy at the market price later on, years later on, and a portion of all your rent applied to the down payment.. that option will make $ all the way down to the bottom... sellers have to be a little desperate at this point...
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Maxpi,, I respect your posts, but i think your above example is a little extreme, if there is only one realtor in my town, that person would be closing 1500 home closings per month in our county and would be worth tens of millions within a year or so,lol..

Something to think about. At the peak in our area, West Coast of Florida, the busiest month we had was a 3500 unit month. That is closings in one month, one helluva of a drop.

This is a diifucult call to make, but I think the best estimate would be as a previous poster said, it will be location specific. Some areas I know have maintained thier values for the last 6 months, beach, downtown, little niche beighborhoods with small airports, other areas have tanked already 20-25%. So i would agree, site specific and i would think another 1.5year before we get a general rise in values.
 
Quote from drtomaso:

Is this the same Alan Greenspan who thought creative mortgage products would be of benefit to consumers? The same guy who didn't see a housing bubble? And then when things started getting bad, admitted he didnt get it til it was too late, and finally admitted there was, in fact, a bubble?
The guy who now advocates socialism to get out of this mess?

Personally, I would think twice before trading along with Easy Al.
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True,some very dubious calls and that can't be denied.

But that's a pretty biased summary of his career,he obviously made some good calls along the way too.
 
Depends are where you are.

I know Pabst, whom I respect, will disagree with me, but I have buku respect for Robert Shiller, and if you look at the price curve of residential and commercial properties over the last 100 years, the last 8 have been insane and unprecedented, and if you just do a 50% retracement of those last 8 years, we're not even close to the bottom yet.

It literally makes tulip mania look like a short, passing fad.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Depends are where you are.

I know Pabst, whom I respect, will disagree with me, but I have buku respect for Robert Shiller, and if you look at the price curve of residential and commercial properties over the last 100 years, the last 8 have been insane and unprecedented, and if you just do a 50% retracement of those last 8 years, we're not even close to the bottom yet.
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at least not in my hood......
 
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