How many traders are actually making a living?

I heard countries with higher margin requirement by law have higher survival rate. Even 1% is not bad IMHO, as most of them are just hobby or casual traders like casino gamblers.
 
the real question is - why is the failure rate so high.... it is indeed the hardest way to make an easy buck..

not only because it's zero sum... we all know that.

but imagine instead of sitting at a poker table against other individual players, all minding their own business, you play, you win or lose, perhaps make a living...

no no... now imagine - at the table there are these pro boys, who not only can see your hand, but they also have the media machine to constantly pound your nervous system - you should go all in now.... you should fold now....

that's why the failure rate is so high... you'd think if people really are trading noise with ATRs and MACDs and Fibs/Gann, shouldn't they just be 50/50 winners/losers, well perhaps skew a little to the losing side for the commission and slippage... but 5/95? with 1% actually making a living?

yeah, totally understandable.... there are the very determined, very luck, and very smart few, about 1%, who finally figured out what this game is about, and managed to get on the same side with the pro boys.
 
orbit23 said:
According to broker reports, around 80% of retail trading CFD are STRAIGHT UP LOSING. And even this seems like an optimistic number.

I would say:
if 80% are losing
----another 10% are just getting by and not losing(breakeven)
--------5% are making some money
------------4% are making a living
-----------------1% are ballers


What do you think? Or is there any sophisticated data on the topic with more details?
More...

You can't get an accurate answer about the percentage of traders that succeed, because there is no pre filter establishing a level starting basis. Anybody who can scrape up broker minimums qualifies as a "trader". So the field includes people who take it seriously and do all their due diligence required and those who treat it just like gambling with minimum effort of understanding.

The failure rate is sky high because it includes anybody and everybody who has some money. If colleges had no entrance exams and let anyone in, the failure rates for STEM degrees would be just as high.

Common sense should tell you that the success rate percentages for those who take it seriously, develop a plan, learn proper trade management, and take lots of notes combined with research practice will be higher than those who think they will just walk in and make a killing just using their gut instinct or having read a book on TA.

The common misconception people have is it's a zero sum game and the retail trader is duking it out with professionals. In the sea of money and order flows, the pros couldn't care less what anyone is doing with their humble retail accounts. Retail loses because most fail to understand price action and wind up doing the opposite of what they should be doing. This is the reason why the common complaint among new traders is that it feels like the market is watching them and trading against all their moves. This happens because our natural mental wiring views price action incorrectly, and thought processes will have to be relearned to understand what's really going on.

The goal is not to "out trade" the pro or anyone, but to be on the right side of the trend so you can ride the wave to the next support or resistance area.

Your biggest enemy isn't the "pro", it's ones own mindset and belief system. The difficulty in trading lies in the difficulty in changing ones mindset and being open minded enough to look for new solutions. People who are closed minded and think they "know" what will or won't work are doomed from the start.
 
dozu888 said:
that's why the failure rate is so high... you'd think if people really are trading noise with ATRs and MACDs and Fibs/Gann, shouldn't they just be 50/50 winners/losers, well perhaps skew a little to the losing side for the commission and slippage... but 5/95? with 1% actually making a living?
More...

2 to 3 % of commission & slippage already nail down that you can't win in long term

Look at roulette, ask yourself do you ever see anyone win the house in casino? Rouette only give the house less than 3% edge and they already in 'never loss' land. Same concept applies to trading, broker and market maker get their 3% edge from commission & sluppage, and traders (aka gamblers) loss in long term.
 
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I don't know the number, but I gave up on trading. While I tend to be a highly accurate technical analyst, I couldn't consistently make money with my accurate analysis, so fuck it. I decided to go back into Programming. During my stint as a trader, I knew a few guys who were rich and actually did this full-time, but the majority were just scraping by.
 
During the dot.com that stat was higher, some who knew nothing perhaps even 1/1000th of what you guys know made millions, I know I saw it. During pockets of prosperity anyone can throw a dart and make money. Finding, waiting, pouncing and taking it to the mat during those periods is the hard part and most importantly knowing when to let go is the hardest. I know I seen it with me own eyes.
 
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