How low can NG go before producers can not make profit?

If BOIL ,UNG are not the best way to do it with , can I just do it with NG futures?
Buying next month contract or maybe buying winter contract ?

It seems that next month contracts and winter contracts are in perfect correlation to each other. If next month goes up 10% , winter months go up 10% as well based on historical data.
 
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BOIL and UNG are fine if you only intend to hold for up to a few months. Just not a good idea holding them for years.
 
john7722 said:
If BOIL ,UNG are not the best way to do it with , can I just do it with NG futures?
Buying next month contract or maybe buying winter contract ?

It seems that next month contracts and winter contracts are in perfect correlation to each other. If next month goes up 10% , winter months go up 10% as well based on historical data.
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Is is futures which has contango.
UNG and BOIL just follow futures. Because when you buy futures contract, you pay for storage.
My swing trade strategy will trigger a buying signal on NGK23 if it touches 2.265 on Monday.
 
wmwmw said:
Is is futures which has contango.
UNG and BOIL just follow futures. Because when you buy futures contract, you pay for storage.
My swing trade strategy will trigger a buying signal on NGK23 if it touches 2.265 on Monday.
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So would buying JAN24 futures and buying UNG be basically the same in reagards to return if you are planning to hold until jan24?
 
john7722 said:
If BOIL ,UNG are not the best way to do it with , can I just do it with NG futures?
Buying next month contract or maybe buying winter contract ?

It seems that next month contracts and winter contracts are in perfect correlation to each other. If next month goes up 10% , winter months go up 10% as well based on historical data.
More...
Seasonal expectancy to the price is already priced in the futures contracts. Do you want to buy nat gas at much higher price right now? As I said earlier, there's no efficient longer term investment vehicles to nat gas.

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Heispark , thanks for you explanation but I am still a bit confused . I do get that price for jan is higher , it makes sense. But if next moth contract for gas go up 5% every month doesn't jan24 goes up 5% as well?

So may23 goes up 5% is jan24 gonna go up 5%
then on may1, jun23 goes up 5 % is jan24 gonna go up additional 5% ?
aren't all contract in direct correlation to the closest expirary month ?
 
The initial cost of drilling/completing the well is large but the cost of keeping it flowing is short. I suspect that price will never get low enough to shut a well down. But it has and will get low enough to stop drilling new wells. It might be there already.
 
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