How I Made $180M in 6 Months Trading Natural Gas

[themickey]

So its important to have conviction and stick with it.

My experience which seems to repeat frequently, when I feel conviction in a trade, when most optimistic, the trade fails, when I have doubts often the stock is a beauty.
I've learnt often best to place a trade on a signal and not on gut feel.
Saying that, discretionary still plays a part as I'd need millions $ to take every signal.

 

[NoahA]

My experience which seems to repeat frequently, when I feel conviction in a trade, when most optimistic, the trade fails, when I have doubts often the stock is a beauty.
I've learnt often best to place a trade on a signal and not on gut feel.
Saying that, discretionary still plays a part as I'd need millions $ to take every signal.

I also feel this same way. When the trade looks too perfect, its usually only because its so obvious to everyone else and hence ripe for turning on a dime.

But I guess with reference to what this guy is doing, since he is literally moving NG through pipes and has mapped out what is happening where, his conviction really means something.

I would say its kind of like being a taxi driver with the traffic overlay on goggle maps. If you can see a live feed of where the heavy traffic is, and hence can take a better route, your chances of getting to the destination faster is a high probability. While others are stuck on the highway, you might be using side streets to gain an edge. But of course, a freak accident can still happen in front you which completely kills your head start.

So taking NG trades just based on charts is one thing. But if a trader actually incorporated weather data to forecast how cold the next few months will be, and also had access to production forecasts, on top of all the other factors that go into affecting NG pricing, I think a high conviction with this much information is perhaps a good thing. A high conviction just based on PA and chart patterns perhaps isn't complete enough.

 

[Sprout]

I can totally believe him that he's made that much money trading the natural gas futures. It's not unheard of that commodities traders make a huge amount of money trading them. One, the commodities is different from other financial assets in that it's an actual physical thing that has a predictable pattern of demand and supply. Like the guy said in the video, natural gas is used everywhere and the harvesting and supplying and transporting it has a relatively traceable and scheduled time so if you become familiar with its patterns and its schedules then it's not hard trading it using what you know. Second, from what I can understand from the video and I stand to be corrected, he's also facilitated and created many of the trading activities that he ended up profiting from beforehand. For example, he's mentioned he created pipelines to transport natural gas and then created trades to take advantage of the location spread. So he's basically become a dealer who has the knowledge and is involved in the primary market of the commodity and then created a secondary market for the same commodity natural gas and the trader trading it. He can do that because he's dealing with the actual physical commodity, the actual thing that goes into every aspect of people's lives and business activities. Notice he mentioned how widely that natural gas is being used; it's used both as an input to the manufacturing of other products and also as an end-product that people use directly. That's a wide spectrum of opportunities in at least the primary market and plus the secondary market of natural gas that he created to profit from. Yeah of course he's rich. But that's something unique that you can only do with physical commodities in this case natural gas but not with other financial assets and is only available to someone like him who is directly involved in dealing with the commodity. That opportunity is just simply not available to us ordinary retail traders who are at the very end of the "food chain" of the life of a financial asset sorta speak.

So overall, it's a very informative video that gave us many insights into commodity trading but we just need to realize and acknowledge also the limitation of the application of the information in the video to us retail traders.

The context he created is lost on most commenting, the quote was something like "out of 100 people at the firm 4-5 are traders and making the money that pays the rest of the people..

The 95 are in roles to support the trader, naturally everyone want to be the trader but those trading aren't necessarily moving on.. it's a lot of stress"

His racing metaphor was great, something like "As the driver, it's up to you to win and get that paycheck that everyone else's livelihood depends, it's an incredible amount of pressure and not everyone is up to the task"

I really enjoyed the drops on location and time arb.

 

[SunTrader]

...

So taking NG trades just based on charts is one thing. But if a trader actually incorporated weather data to forecast how cold the next few months will be, and also had access to production forecasts, on top of all the other factors that go into affecting NG pricing, I think a high conviction with this much information is perhaps a good thing. A high conviction just based on PA and chart patterns perhaps isn't complete enough.

And especially COT data.

 

[Rams Fan]

I am not being a hater, just a contrarian.

They all talk, and never take about 5 seconds to post a trading account balance .

Guy have no proof of nothing, just talking fairy tales like the other Talking Trading Gurus. Guy just talking and bragging and playing around trying to get views.

I made $500,000 today trading ES futures.

Just some friendly advice: If you want to succeed at this game you have to be honest, if not with us, at least with yourself.

From those two posts, I think you should hang it up. Trading isn't for you.

 

[Edmond]

He may be a trader but I doubt he’s made the amount of money he’s claimed to have made..

read his body language, facial expressions, his tipping eyes and flared nostrils.

dead give away he’s fibbing about the numbers.

you guys are soooooo easily hoodwinked.

 

[Overnight]

One thing I don't get is when he mentions when Crude prices were collapsing at start of pandemic, he had to reverse his NG shorts because with no crude, NG would skyrocket. It was, as he called it, his most memorable trade. But I looked back at HH spot prices of the time, and it was near record lows? Anyone know which kind of NG he saw spiking through the roof?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Just some friendly advice: If you want to succeed at this game you have to be honest, if not with us, at least with yourself.

From those two posts, I think you should hang it up. Trading isn't for you.

Hello Rams Fan,

Have a good day buddy.

 

[vanzandt]

One thing I don't get is when he mentions when Crude prices were collapsing at start of pandemic, he had to reverse his NG shorts because with no crude, NG would skyrocket. It was, as he called it, his most memorable trade. But I looked back at HH spot prices of the time, and it was near record lows? Anyone know which kind of NG he saw spiking through the roof?

You're alive. Good deal. I was worried you got shanghaied out in Vegas by one of KC's Asian babes and was tied up in a cellar somewhere west of Beijing.

Exactly.

What happened to the "Hello Comagnum" part?
..."Simon says"

So, is it real? You would surely not post random YouTuber videos of kids claiming they made 140mln?

No... he post it because in his gut he knew it was bs.

as I hate giving an opinion before I educate myself .

2 week ban from ET.

I can totally believe him that he's made that much money trading the natural gas futures. It's not unheard of that commodities traders make a huge amount of money trading them. One, the commodities is different from other financial assets in that it's an actual physical thing that has a predictable pattern of demand and supply. Like the guy said in the video, natural gas is used everywhere and the harvesting and supplying and transporting it has a relatively traceable and scheduled time so if you become familiar with its patterns and its schedules then it's not hard trading it using what you know. Second, from what I can understand from the video and I stand to be corrected, he's also facilitated and created many of the trading activities that he ended up profiting from beforehand. For example, he's mentioned he created pipelines to transport natural gas and then created trades to take advantage of the location spread. So he's basically become a dealer who has the knowledge and is involved in the primary market of the commodity and then created a secondary market for the same commodity natural gas and the trader trading it. He can do that because he's dealing with the actual physical commodity, the actual thing that goes into every aspect of people's lives and business activities. Notice he mentioned how widely that natural gas is being used; it's used both as an input to the manufacturing of other products and also as an end-product that people use directly. That's a wide spectrum of opportunities in at least the primary market and plus the secondary market of natural gas that he created to profit from. Yeah of course he's rich. But that's something unique that you can only do with physical commodities in this case natural gas but not with other financial assets and is only available to someone like him who is directly involved in dealing with the commodity. That opportunity is just simply not available to us ordinary retail traders who are at the very end of the "food chain" of the life of a financial asset sorta speak.

So overall, it's a very informative video that gave us many insights into commodity trading but we just need to realize and acknowledge also the limitation of the application of the information in the video to us retail traders.

There's a key on your keyboard that says "enter".... when used every now and then it breaks up the text for those of us that unlike @SimpleMeLike 's grandfather... hear better than we can see.

ET

 

[SimpleMeLike]

You're alive. Good deal. I was worried you got shanghaied out in Vegas by one of KC's Asian babes and was tied up in a cellar somewhere west of Beijing.



What happened to the "Hello Comagnum" part?
..."Simon says"



No... he post it because in his gut he knew it was bs.


2 week ban from ET.


There's a key on your keyboard that says "enter".... when used every now and then it breaks up the text for those of us that unlike @SimpleMeLike 's grandfather... hear better than we can see.

ET

Hello vanzandt,

There is only one sentence that have protected my trading capital and from brutally raped by Trading Gurus Sellers/Liars hard penis trying to sell me Lies and Scams, and that is one simple quote from grandfather.

"Shut up Talking Boy, I see, better than I hear".

In my words to Trading Gurus Sellers/Liars

"Shut Up Trading Gurus Sellers/Liars, I see, better than I hear"