Quote from waggie945:
As posted on another thread, the volatility has been crushed since March of 2003. In fact, the historic peak in volatility was the 30 months from Jan. 2000 to March 2003 when there were 5 months out of EACH year between 2000-2002 and 2 of 3 in the first quarter of 2003 where there were monthly moves greater than 10%.
Since March of 2003 we have the following moves:
April: 8.99%
May: 6.76%
June: 5.36%
July: 5.48%
Aug: 5.08%
Sept: 4.95%
On a weekly basis, we have only had 5 weekly ranges greater than 4% since this past March, and 4 of those were in the 2nd Quarter and only 1 since the end of June.
By the way, in the 24 years from 1976 thru 1999, the average was 1 per years ( at 8% ) with only 1 year with 4 (1987) and 2 years with 3 ( 1982 &1998 ). The three years 1973-1975 was 25%, and that was the only other period in the 53+ years period of any considerable magnitude. 1970 also sticks out because there were 6 occurences but only 1 other in the 6 years of 1967 thru 1972.
Of course now the $64,000 questions is whether or not the "storm" of volatility is completely over, or whether or not we are simply passing thru the "Eye of the Hurricane" before another shoe drops!
Thats great wiggle. But on this thread, we cut through all the excess noise, and go right to the chase. So where do you think the S&P will top?