How high can the S&P go?
- Thread starter Romeo
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I am only an intraday trader of equities, so I don't really care where the market is heading longer term, but it seems to me we have had several of these sell the news pullbacks in the last month and every time we are higher a week later. I do not see why it would be any different this time. I would "guess" the S&P will see 1060 before 1030.
sucking down the gaviscon this am. SMH going wild and me short a stack of smh calls and long a few puts to boot. Went short the NQ near the open but after having taken a couple of big hits on NQ shorts recently wasn't even a half position. After I regained my senses I bought a stack of IBM puts as the rally seemed to be failing anticipating news that at least wasn't as good as Intels after the close, hopefully the fact that rev.s fell will matter despite the fact that they made their earnings. Went short the ES half position (just don't have the stomache for a full position right now) on close.
I obviously expect the market to head south from here at least enough to give me some profit for all my agro but if it rallies in to the weekend I think I will probably take a break for a week or two.
Hindsight being what it is I recognize that the smh short probably wasn't the best trade I have made all year. Not because I am in the red now, I may or may not still come out ahead on the trade, but because the risk reward ratio just wasn't takt good and with the significant spread it is very easy to lose control of a trade like that, something that I should have known from past experience. Live and relearn! Also as Intel had guided again a few weeks ago I just didn't think that whatever they had to say now was going to be that much better and move things as much as they did.
Thanks for highlighting my guess Romeo but it is small consolation for my cock up on the smh.
I obviously expect the market to head south from here at least enough to give me some profit for all my agro but if it rallies in to the weekend I think I will probably take a break for a week or two.
Hindsight being what it is I recognize that the smh short probably wasn't the best trade I have made all year. Not because I am in the red now, I may or may not still come out ahead on the trade, but because the risk reward ratio just wasn't takt good and with the significant spread it is very easy to lose control of a trade like that, something that I should have known from past experience. Live and relearn! Also as Intel had guided again a few weeks ago I just didn't think that whatever they had to say now was going to be that much better and move things as much as they did.
Thanks for highlighting my guess Romeo but it is small consolation for my cock up on the smh.
Now that we pushed over 1050 today, I do think we are due for a profit taking pullback from here. I was SHORT the ES out of the open today and I will be looking for additional downside moves through the rest of this week. I feel that we have now put in a very short term top and that we could go as low as the 990 (I have revised this up from my prior 965 support area pick) area for a test of support over the next few weeks. I do feel as I have said prior in this thread that we will then see the S&P push over the 1100 area prior to the end of this year. This is all speculation on my part for fun as we all watch how the drama unfolds. 
Chris
Chris
I am simply amazed at the number of people on this thread that continue to look at the S&P and say that a TOP is in place.
Rather bizarre observations and conclusions when one ACCEPTS the fact that the S&P futures have rallied to new highs for the move today, IBM and CAT notwithstanding. ( $-3.5 and $-5.25 ).
Pretty impressive, to say the least!
"Observer what is happening and assume it will continue"
Victor Sperandeo, 1984
Rather bizarre observations and conclusions when one ACCEPTS the fact that the S&P futures have rallied to new highs for the move today, IBM and CAT notwithstanding. ( $-3.5 and $-5.25 ).
Pretty impressive, to say the least!
"Observer what is happening and assume it will continue"
Victor Sperandeo, 1984
If you guys want to see how much this market has changed, just look at this options expiration week from Oct, 2002...We had an overnight gap of 23 pts on Thurs, 10/17/02...Had an opening range of 22 pts on Fri, 10/18/02...Lo and behold, now we have 3-4 pt opening ranges and a VIX reading under 17 for the first time since July, 1998 and its OCTOBER...
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