How George Soros knows what he knows

[chessman]

Quote from Magickian:

Chessman wrote:
I try to be a systematic trader who feels if I leave the door open to gut feel, its nothing but trouble. Not sure how to incorporate her ideas??

Give it a try, but do so slowly and methodically using a journal - that way if it adds to your edge or not at least you’ll know why. In this business of managing risk more filters can only help as long as their efficacy has been proven.

Magickian,

Your reply piqued my interest, I also took some time to readup on your other posts. Very interesting. I may order some of the books that you mentioned.

Its interesting how mkt surfer came to your defense in one of your threads, all you intuitive guys stick together !

I will take your advice of doing it slowly, as another poster said, utilize a system for 95% of my trading, but leave the door open to that 5%.

Also, I am all ears if you have any further advice.

 

[chessman]

Quote from marketsurfer:

soros is used as an example of utilizing intuition and feelings to place trades. intuitive knowledge, be it connecting to your own stored data bank or some sort of a connection to a "collective unconsciousness" or gaien mind is something that is just starting to be studied as it relates to decision making. flavia is on the forefront of this movement.

best,

surfer

Yes, surfer very insightful comments. This issue of connection to collective unconsciousness need to be looked at. I am sure we have all heard stories about musicians talking about how complete songs came to them in dreams or that one famous scientist who discovered Benzene rings after an image of snakes in a circle biting each others tails.

I have always held the belief that we have access to much more knowledge or gifts if you will, than whats inside our heads.

 

[GeorgeSoros]

OK Guys, I know what I know because every day I read EliteTrader

 

[Magickian]

Chessman,
I recommend initiating any changes slowly to reduce volatility, methodically to reduce the standard of deviation. The journal helps to manage the transition. A small change in your system may generate seemingly random or insignificant effects short-term. However, compounded over a long period of time will lead to the emerge of more stable deterministic patterns. This phenomenon has been labeled extreme sensitive dependence on initial conditions in systems theory. Proceed with caution as it can help increase your edge as easily as it can diminish it.

 

[lindq]

Quote from chessman:


on a mechanical system. You have to combine gut feel with a mechanical system. Almost develop a filter if you will.

As a swing trader who trades pullbacks, this is an issue I struggle with daily. There are often times I elect not to enter a trade, only to see the stock rally sharply just after my signals were hit, and I'm not onboard. That is a huge frustration, and over the past few months, while I have done very well overall, I have left a lot of money on the table.

At other times, I have saved myself grief by not entering when there was serious negative news out on the stock.

But overall - I strongly suspect in looking back over missed opportunities that my "intuition" cost me money. At the very least, by just sticking with my systems I probably would have been even on the trades I didn't take, and saved myself a lot of frustration.

We'd all like to think we can bring something extra to the party. But in the long run, we may be better off putting our intelligence to work on developing a great system, then getting the hell out of the way, making only minor adjustments as market conditions warrent.

 

[gms]

Tastes, colors, smells of the market as a technique? Hmmm. Let me know when they get to having John Edwards on how to conjure up Livermore and Baruch.

 

[trader99]

Quote from gms:

Tastes, colors, smells of the market as a technique? Hmmm. Let me know when they get to having John Edwards on how to conjure up Livermore and Baruch.

HAHA! LOL! This is hilarious! As Ed Seykota like to say you must rely on INTUITION not INTO-WISHING! haha. That's what gets peopel into trouble

 

[chessman]

Quote from lindq:



We'd all like to think we can bring something extra to the party. But in the long run, we may be better off putting our intelligence to work on developing a great system, then getting the hell out of the way, making only minor adjustments as market conditions warrent.

Yes, same here, I have never been able to outperform my system in the long run. There have been times, where by not taking a trade which turned out to be a loser, I felt great elation upon my success, upon my success of using my mind to beat the mkt.

But that elation unfortunately quickly subsides, when the ruthless taskmaster the mkt reminds you who is really in charge. There have been times when I thought I knew better and didn't take my long signal. Only to see the mkt race past my entry point, and then the pain to watching the mkt go up day after day, and then to add insult to injury, I even have tried to sell into the rally thinking the mkt must come down, trying to make up for that missed opportunity...

 

[chessman]

Quote from trader99:



HAHA! LOL! This is hilarious! As Ed Seykota likes to say you must rely on INTUITION not INTO-WISHING! haha. That's what gets people into trouble

Trader99

Yes, I think for most of us its hard to distinguish intuition from into-wishing. But I think Flavia maybe on to something, her methods are very similar to Eds. Both talk about tastes, textures, temperature, pressure, smell etc. Its that familiar language of the subconscious mind.

 

[chessman]

Quote from Magickian:

Chessman,
I recommend initiating any changes slowly to reduce volatility, methodically to reduce the standard of deviation. The journal helps to manage the transition. A small change in your system may generate seemingly random or insignificant effects short-term. However, compounded over a long period of time will lead to the emerge of more stable deterministic patterns. This phenomenon has been labeled extreme sensitive dependence on initial conditions in systems theory. Proceed with caution as it can help increase your edge as easily as it can diminish it.

Magickian,

I appreciate your comments. I had to lookup extreme sensitive dependence, interesting stuff.

I do keep a Journal, could you please clarify, in this case what is it that I would be writing in it? Just keeping track of my trades, profit/loss etc that result from following my intuition?

Thanks