How George Soros knows what he knows

i read a great book recently, "Fooled by Randomness". http://www.capitalideasonline.com/books/fooled_randomness.htm The author mentions that soros is one of the few traders he admires. there is no mention of the French insider trading charges though. i think if one is to read more about soros' bio the less likely he appears a market guru.

in regards to "net success" being the measuring stick for judgement.....i guess it all depends on "when" one does the judging. but nonetheless, the book is a good read and has forever changed the way i perceive success in this business.
 
Quote from ron0823:

For those that are interested, a new article detailing Dr Cymbalista's work now appears in the online version of SFO magazine.

I have read both the Soros paper and this article, and although not nearly as detailed, the article does a good job of describing marketfocusing in a practical framework. It is said to be one in a series of 3.

http://www.sfomag.com/articlesdetail.asp?IssueMonthID=July&YearID=2003&ID=24
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ron,

thank you for posting the link. her work is unique, cutting edge and may give us a glimpse into what the future holds for trading.

best,

surfer:)
 
Quote from C Robinson:

i read a great book recently, "Fooled by Randomness". http://www.capitalideasonline.com/books/fooled_randomness.htm The author mentions that soros is one of the few traders he admires. there is no mention of the French insider trading charges though. i think if one is to read more about soros' bio the less likely he appears a market guru.

in regards to "net success" being the measuring stick for judgement.....i guess it all depends on "when" one does the judging. but nonetheless, the book is a good read and has forever changed the way i perceive success in this business.
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I agree, Taleb's book was the most helpful I have ever read on trading.
 
Quote from ron0823:

For those that are interested, a new article detailing Dr Cymbalista's work now appears in the online version of SFO magazine.

I have read both the Soros paper and this article, and although not nearly as detailed, the article does a good job of describing marketfocusing in a practical framework. It is said to be one in a series of 3.

http://www.sfomag.com/articlesdetail.asp?IssueMonthID=July&YearID=2003&ID=24
More...

Thanks for the link.

For those of you interested in further exploring Flavia's work, she is planning a Introduction to her work in NYC, sometime this summer. Stay tuned to her website.

http://www.marketfocusing.com/main.html

I have thought about this subject quite a bit, I think it needs to be approached with caution. For now I am using it to 'feel' out new trading strategies/systems I am developing.
 
I am rather an admirator of Soros and I have advised his books many times. Nevertheless I'm not blindly believing in him and it is not realistic to think that a guy that trades for the Queen of England and other richest family is just using his intuition or ability huhu !

So here's an article about his supposed Secret Financial Network. Of course discard opinions from facts in the article as you should do when you read a newspaper because the author is apparently not an admirator of Soros like me :D

The Secret Financial Network Behind "Wizard" George Soros
by William Engdahl
EIR Investigation Executive Intelligence Review (EIR), November 1, 1996
http://www.nysol.se/stoppaknarket/soroseng.html
 
Mechanical system trading and intuitive or so-called "gut feel" trading may seems like complete opposite approaches, but I'm wondering if it's just a matter of the degree to which one can identify/verbalize/program the triggers and factors that "made you" take (or not take) the trade that makes it intuitive?

For me, tape reading and short-term scalping isn't my time frame, yet by watching the markets all day long I've developed a handle for certain types of price movements which may sometimes help me in making intermediate time frame decisions -- these I usually write off as just "gut feel". Yet if I someday decide to sit down and trade the smaller time frames, I'm sure I would try to hunker down and really dissect those movements, until I can bring those "fuzzy" details out of my "gut" and into my active consciousness. For those of you who trade on both sides of the line, what do you think of this take on inutition?
 
Quote from illiquid:

Mechanical system trading and intuitive or so-called "gut feel" trading may seems like complete opposite approaches, but I'm wondering if it's just a matter of the degree to which one can identify/verbalize/program the triggers and factors that "made you" take (or not take) the trade that makes it intuitive?

Yet if I someday decide to sit down and trade the smaller time frames, I'm sure I would try to hunker down and really dissect those movements, until I can bring those "fuzzy" details out of my "gut" and into my active consciousness.
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You bring up many good points. I believe that is what the conventional view of trading is, that mechanical system trading and discretionary trading (gut feel) are complete opposites.

I my case I do take off 1/2 to 1/3 position based on gut feel, which is really chart patterns, mkt run up etc. That has served me well. Unfortunately for me, I tend to overdo it, at times I have used gut feel to 'enter' positions and have even reversed positions in a strong trending mkt.

I believe what Flavia's methods try to accomplish is to make logical reasoning (mechanical system) and intuition (discretionary trading) work together. The hard part of discretionary trading is SEPERATING 'emotion' from true 'gut feel'. I know of no other systematic method that accomplishes that. That is why I believe her work is so important for me. As I mentioned previously it is like developing another indicator, however this time the indicator is the subconscious mind or what she calls bodily felt sense.

"I'm sure I would try to hunker down and really dissect those movements, until I can bring those "fuzzy" details out of my "gut" and into my active consciousness."

Nothing is ever missed by the subconscious mind, it has billions of pieces of mkt information stored. All that time that you sit in front of the computer passively watching the mkt, the subconscious mind stores all. For obvious reasons not to overwhelm the conscious mind, very few facts are brought to the conscious mind. The question is how do we mine all that data and turn it into effective knowlege. I believe thats where Flavia's methods comes into play.
 
Quote from misctrader:



No, we would KNOW the name George Soros if the British pund didn't break. But he would be associated with the other big British loser speculator like Nick Leeson of Barings Bank who bet big and lost it all.

He would be infamous instead of famous! LOL. There seemed to be a moral hazard problem in this field if you play with OPM. If you win big you get a huge bonus and recognition. If you lose big, then you either 1) lose your job (BFD) 2) go to jail (well, pretty big deal).

But still, for a $1B wouldn't you do the trade too? haha
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Soros was already a billionaire when he made his famous Pound trade 10 years ago. That did not make him, nor would it have broken him had it not gone his way.
 
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